As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
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Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading
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This page reviews results from a study of return on total capital.
Value Line defines the return on total capital as "annual net profit plus 1/2 of annual long-term interest divided by the total of shareholders's equity and long term debt." Shareholders's equity is the net worth of the company.
A study of the return on total capital (ROTC) shows that stocks with a low return (below the median of all stocks studied) outperformed those with higher ROTC ratios 57% of the time. In other words, if you bought a stock with a low return on capital at the start of the year and held it from 1 to 5 years, you would have made more money 57% of the time when compared to those stocks with a higher return on total capital. This better performance is especially true during a bear market and for a year or two after the bear market ends. However, additional samples may change the results.
I consider the 57% number as near random. Other fundamental analysis ratios predict better performance.
I used the Value Line investment survey and typed in their return on total capital percentages to build a database of 178 stocks with data ranging from 12/30/1991 to 7/11/2008.
After completing the database, I logged the close-to-close price change from 1 to 5 years out, looking forward from the base year. The base year ranged from 1992 to 2006. Not all stocks covered the entire range. Years with no numbers were excluded. The price change measured from the close on the last trading day of each year unless the value was unavailable (in which case, I used the start of the new year). Years 2008 and later are not included since the year had not completed as of the time of this study.
The following table shows the results of return on total capital (ROTC) versus performance over time.
| Base Year | ROTC | Median ROTC | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | 4 years | 5 years | Samples |
| 1998 | High | 13.3% | 19.3% | 15.7% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 61 |
| Low | 23.8% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 11.4% | 62 | ||
| 1999 | High | 11.95% | 3.0% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 66 |
| Low | -8.8% | -7.9% | -8.2% | 0.3% | 6.1% | 66 | ||
| 2000 | High | 12.8% | 7.3% | -3.5% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 66 |
| Low | -2.4% | -5.4% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 18.2% | 66 | ||
| 2001 | High | 11% | -11.0% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 66 |
| Low | -10.4% | 12.7% | 21.2% | 22.3% | 23.9% | 69 | ||
| 2002 | High | 10.4% | 31.9% | 25.9% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 11.8% | 67 |
| Low | 38.2% | 40.5% | 40.1% | 38.0% | 39.4% | 69 | ||
| 2003 | High | 10.7% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 70 | |
| Low | 31.0% | 29.7% | 29.1% | 26.3% | 74 | |||
| 2004 | High | 11.7% | 20.5% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 78 | ||
| Low | 17.0% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 79 | ||||
| 2005 | High | 12.85% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 82 | |||
| Low | 17.0% | 11.3% | 82 | |||||
| 2006 | High | 13.5% | 11.2% | 84 | ||||
| Low | 5.0% | 87 | ||||||
| Base Year | ROTC | Median ROTC | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | 4 years | 5 years | Samples |
Let's take an example using 2006. Stocks with a return on total capital above the median 13.5% had gains averaging 11.2% in 2007 compared to gains of 5.0% for stocks with return on total capital at or below the median. No more results appear for that row because the years had not ended when the study was done. There were 84 and 87 samples that qualified for the study.
Notice that the bear market years of 2001 to 2003 (and the follow-on year of 2004) have the low return on total capital showing future outperformance when compared to the high return on total capital. If you add up the winners and losers of the 35 test periods, you will find that the low return on total capital beats the high return category 57% of the time. I consider that "near random," although the bear market years tend to show above average results, perhaps due to low sample counts.
I consider these results preliminary since I intend to expand the database and then publish my findings.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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