As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024
As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024

Bulkowski on the Search for 10 Baggers

10-baggers are stocks that rise by at least ten times the purchase price within 5 years. The 5 year time limit is arbitrary. This article discusses finding 10-baggers using fundamental analysis to select stocks.

10-Bagger Summary

I built a database of fundamental values and then mined that data to find fundamental factors that most 10-baggers shared. I searched through 974 stocks but found only 163 samples of 10-baggers from 1992 to 2007, using split un-adjusted data to get an accurate price representation. That's important since a stock valued at $30 today can become $10 tomorrow after a 3 for 1 stock split. Any fundamental ratios, such as price to earnings, price to sales, and so on also change after a stock split. That's why it's important to exclude splits (or compensate for them) from the analysis.

The details of this analysis is in my book, Fundamental Analysis and Position TradingFundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book., but here are some of the findings. Most numbers apply to the year before the 10-bagger began.

The best time to go shopping for 10-baggers is just as or just after a bear market ends.

Using the following criteria on split un-adjusted stocks found 104 samples with gains average 585% over 5 years. Twenty-eight (27%) of them were 10-baggers, but 6% showed losses averaging 26% over 5 years.

This list is slightly different from that published in the book because I allowed almost all of the samples through here but the book uses a cutoff of 66% to weed out the poorer performing fundamentals.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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