As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski on Pattern Pairs: Diamond Tops

Initial release: 12/8/2021.

The idea behind pattern pairs is to pick a chart pattern type (like broadening bottoms with upward breakouts) to buy and another to sell (like double tops). You buy the upward breakout from the broadening bottom, hold for a few years, and sell when a double top appears and breaks out downward. Along the way, you give price a chance to rise far enough to overcome those trades which are stopped out for a loss. This is a trend-following strategy.

Trading Diamond Tops: Summary

Picture of the pattern pairs.

The figure illustrates the idea for trading pattern pairs, where price is the red line and the boxes are chart patterns. This articles assumes you buy an upward breakout from either a diamond top or a busted one (price breaks out downward, drops no more than 10%, reverses, and closes above the top of the diamond). Buy as price rises above the top of the diamond.

On the sale side, you can sell the first bearish chart pattern which comes along or wait for your favorite bearish chart pattern to appear and sell then.

Here's a list of the top five performing sell signals, based on annualized gain (annualized because the hold time is often years, in parenthesis).

Sell a...

The following list shows the expected performance of chart pattern pairs, ranked by their expectancy. Expectancy is a way of gauging winning and losing trades and how much money you might make trading a pattern pair. I put the expected profit per trade, per share, in parenthesis.

To improve performance, try these tips.

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Trading Diamond Tops: Entry and Exit Conditions

The databases I built over several decades doesn't identify every chart pattern. There may be plenty of double tops over the years, for example, that I didn't catalog on the way to the one I did catalog. So buying an upward breakout from a diamond top and selling at the double top I cataloged would be different than choosing to sell a different double top. However, the following analysis does give a real-world flavor for how well you might do trading chart patterns if you follow the pattern pair strategy.

Here's what I used in my analysis.

I used the following 43 chart patterns in the analysis, but some only applied if they were busted.

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Trading Diamond Tops: Stops

I used a stop loss order set a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern. Price on the way down may have gapped below the stop price (for the sale price), so I used the lower of the stop price or the opening price on the day of sale).

For trailing stops, I removed the stop loss order and used a trailing stop set at 10%, 15%, 20%, or 25% below a peak, never lowering the stop value, but raising it if a higher peak came along during the trade.

In Table 1, I calculated the percentage net gain (the average of gains and losses) when using various trailing stop loss amounts (10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%) for all tested chart patterns according to the busted/non-busted buy/sell configuration. In parenthesis is the size of the average loss so I could detail how losses change with various stop loss orders.

For example, if I tested non-busted diamond tops and sold various non-busted patterns (ascending triangles, broadening tops, head-and-shoulders tops, and so on), I made an average of 39% ("Stop Loss Only" column) after having a stop loss order in place. Losses averaged 8%. Replacing the stop loss with a 10% trailing stop cut the gain to 5% but also trimmed the average loss to 5%. Using a 25% trailing stop allowed me to keep more money, 8%, but losses climbed to 13%. If I didn't use any type of stop, the gain averaged 95% with losses averaging 30%.

The results show that trades which do not use a stop make the most money but losses are huge.

Table 1: Various Trailing Stop Settings: Net Profit and (Average Loss)
Data 10%  15%  20%  25%  Stop Loss 
Only
 No Stop
Non-busted buys, non-busted sales 5% (-5%)  4% (-6%)  7% (-9%)  8% (-13%)  39% (-8%)  95% (-30%) 
Busted buys, non-busted sales 1% (-6%)  5% (-7%)  10% (-11%)  15% (-14%)  15% (-9%)  115% (-27%) 
Non-busted buys, busted sales 4% (-5%)  4% (-6%)  6% (-9%)  8% (-13%)  28% (-7%)  88% (-24%) 
Busted buys, busted sales 1% (-6%)  8% (-7%)  13% (-11%)  15% (-13%)  16% (-8%)  81% (-27%) 

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Trading Diamond Tops: Busted Patterns

According to the contest results, avoid trading using busted chart patterns.

Table 2 shows what I found when comparing the performance of non-busted patterns (both buy and sell) with busted and non-busted chart patterns. In 20, 22, or 31 contests (up to 31 different chart pattern types, depending on which apply), I compared the three combinations of busted and non-busted buy and sell signals to non-busted buy and sell signals. The table below shows the percentage of time the busted combination beat the non-busted combination in the contests.

For example, I found that busted patterns won just 27% of the time or 6 of 22 contests when buying using a non-busted pattern and selling a busted pattern (compared to non-busted for both).

Table 2: Busted or Non-Busted Contest Winners
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternN/A (benchmark)27%
Buy busted pattern19%10%

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Trading Diamond Tops: Non-busted Buy, Non-Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

Table 3 shows statistics I collected for diamond tops using the trading rules described above and shown in the figure. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

For example, if you were to buy the upward breakout from a diamond top chart pattern and hold it until you encountered a broadening bottom (the first chart pattern listed in the table), but one with a downward breakout, you'd net an average of 24% on the 98 (15 winners, 83 losers) trades. That's an average of 201% on your winners, 8% average loss on your losers. You'd find that only 15% of the trades made money but you'd gain an average of 17% per year (ranking 32nd where 1 is best). If you removed the stop loss order and just held on until the broadening bottom with a downward breakout appeared, you'd make an average of 88% per trade.

The expectancy averages a loss of $7.67 per share per trade which ranks 63rd where 1 is the best value. It suggests you'll have difficulty profiting from this pattern pair.

Notes: The rank is based on the net gain for all four performance tables (tables 3 to 6) shown below. Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 3: Statistics for Diamond Tops
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom201%-8%24%17%3288%15/8315%-$7.6769
Broadening top151%-7%33%22%2488%43/12526%$3.2715
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending168%-8%26%19%2776%16/6719%$1.9230
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending547%-8%80%50%6109%10/5316%$2.2024
Broadening wedge, ascending214%-8%73%47%10107%19/3337%$4.608
Broadening wedge, descending162%-9%27%16%3670%11/4221%$1.0340
Bump-and-run reversal top196%-8%34%42%1377%36/14020%-$2.4464
Diamond bottom73%-8%16%45%6/1430%
Diamond top287%-7%63%56%4143%22/7024%$1.3236
Adam & Adam double top526%-7%75%48%7163%56/30516%$3.2216
Adam & Eve double top141%-7%15%12%43119%27/15015%$2.4421
Eve & Adam double top223%-8%30%17%3387%32/16616%$3.5013
Eve & Eve double top569%-7%92%70%2158%41/19717%$0.4546
Falling wedge156%-9%21%17%3430%8/3618%-$1.6561
Head-and-shoulders top148%-8%17%15%3796%106/57416%-$0.8758
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Head-and-shoulders, complex top456%-8%69%65%3124%19/9617%-$0.1852
Rectangle top289%-7%40%29%16107%16/8516%$0.8441
Rising wedge235%-8%24%21%2681%24/15913%-$2.5465
Rounding top197%-9%15%11%4673%12/9012%-$10.5971
Ascending scallop486%-6%82%55%5120%7/3218%$2.0628
Descending scallop449%-8%49%48%888%33/23312%-$0.7456
Scallop, inverted and ascending487%-6%85%131%5/2219%
Scallop, descending and inverted255%-8%45%30%1573%34/13520%$0.2148
Triangle, ascending216%-8%21%22%2364%11/7313%-$0.4054
Triangle, descending43%-8%-4%-6%7033%7/947%-$4.4767
Triangle, symmetrical138%-8%17%18%3061%51/24817%-$0.8157
Triple top284%-8%41%27%18107%79/39417%$1.0639
Rectangle bottom122%-8%1%1%6828%5/667%-$6.9968
3 falling peaks268%-7%45%28%1794%96/40719%$0.3947
Roof90%-6%20%15%3940%8/2227%$2.3422
Roof, inverted687%-8%86%48%9144%5/3214%$1.7233
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Diamond Tops: Busted Buy, Non-Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

The figure shows the setup for this scenario. When price busts the bearish chart pattern (busts a downward breakout from a diamond top in a bull market), buy. Sell after a downward breakout from the target chart pattern.

Table 4 shows the performance of busted diamond tops for the entry and sales after downward breakouts from various bearish chart patterns. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the diamond (after buying).

A busted diamond top has a downward breakout but price drops no more than 10% before reversing and moving above the top of the diamond. Buy when price moves at least a penny above the top of the busted diamond. Sell after price drops at least a penny below the target chart pattern.

For example, buying a diamond top with a busted downward breakout in a bull market (the entry price is really the higher of a penny above the top of the diamond or the opening price) and selling after the downward breakout from a broadening top shows winners averaging gains of 122%. Losses average 8%, for a net of 7%. Only 66 trades occurred with a win/loss ratio of 14%. This scenario ranks the annualized net gain as 50th among the four tables. If you traded this as a buy-and-hold position, meaning no stops were used, the net gain climbed to 69%. Expectancy was $1.29 per share, ranking 38th where 1 is best.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 4: Statistics for Busted Buys, Normal Sales
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom142%-8%35%74%6/1529%
Broadening top122%-8%10%7%5069%9/5714%$1.2938
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending75%-8%12%38%6/1924%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending33%-8%-2%135%4/2017%
Broadening wedge, ascending35%-8%-6%147%1/166%
Broadening wedge, descending184%-9%15%144%2/1413%
Bump-and-run reversal top56%-10%8%6%5784%15/4127%$2.1125
Diamond bottomNone-12%-12%47%0/50%
Diamond top65%-9%11%79%8/2128%
Adam & Adam double top194%-8%25%15%38183%25/13016%$4.657
Adam & Eve double top243%-9%47%23%22221%13/4522%$6.392
Eve & Adam double top110%-8%9%5%59155%10/5815%$0.8342
Eve & Eve double top169%-8%34%24%2185%22/7124%$5.734
Falling wedge103%-8%4%52%2/1611%
Head-and-shoulders top139%-8%22%14%4098%56/21721%$3.6812
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Head-and-shoulders, complex top202%-7%29%18%3157%6/2917%$3.9110
Rectangle top356%-10%42%22%25164%5/3014%$9.461
Rising wedge60%-8%11%7%4973%21/5129%$3.2714
Rounding top107%-9%20%10%48145%11/3424%$2.0029
Ascending scallop91%-13%5%110%3/1517%
Descending scallop47%-10%2%1%6439%19/7620%$1.3137
Scallop, inverted and ascending66%-8%-1%230%1/910%
Scallop, descending and inverted81%-11%2%1%6693%10/6214%-$0.3453
Triangle, ascending57%-7%5%36%5/2119%
Triangle, descending15%-9%-7%259%2/219%
Triangle, symmetrical104%-8%20%13%4263%29/8625%$3.969
Triple top95%-8%9%6%5691%26/13117%$1.9132
Rectangle bottom21%-9%-1%10%5/1525%
3 falling peaks98%-11%7%4%63172%35/17617%$2.0627
Roof100%-9%15%117%3/1121%
Roof, inverted53%-9%4%224%4/1620%
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Diamond Tops: Non-busted Buy, Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

The figure shows an example of how this trade unfolds.

A bullish chart pattern appears and you buy at the breakout. Continue holding until your selected chart pattern appears. The chart pattern is bullish because it has an upward breakout but then things go wrong. Price reverses. Sell when the stock dips below the bottom of the chart pattern (meaning it busts the upward breakout).

Table 5 shows the performance statistics for this setup (buying a normal diamond top and selling only after a busted chart pattern appears). A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

For example, buying a diamond top with an upward breakout in a bull market and selling a busted broadening top shows winning trades making an average of 29%. Losing trades lost 7%, giving a net gain of 1%. The annualized gain is 1% in this case, giving the setup a rank of 65th (where 1 is best). If you traded this without a stop, the net gain climbed to 120%. Of the stocks I looked at, I found 71 trades with 24% of them winning. Expectancy was a $2.10 per share, ranking 26th where 1 is best.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 5: Statistics for Normal Buy, Busted Sale
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom26%-8%-6%-7%7132%2/287%-$2.2463
Broadening top29%-7%1%1%65120%17/5424%$2.1026
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending375%-7%57%41%14110%6/3017%$0.0549
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending27%-7%0%30%5/1921%
Broadening wedge, ascending103%-7%19%59%3/1023%
Broadening wedge, descending53%-8%1%53%4/2215%
Bump-and-run reversal bottom87%-8%10%30%4/1719%
Cup with handle30%-7%-2%41%2/1512%
Diamond bottom14%-7%-5%69%2/1611%
Diamond top95%-8%8%7%5556%5/2815%-$0.4655
Adam & Adam double bottom106%-8%6%4%62130%15/11212%$1.4935
Adam & Eve double bottom416%-8%73%46%11147%11/4719%-$1.8562
Eve & Adam double bottom1125%-7%189%86%1316%9/4317%$5.605
Eve & Eve double bottom55%-7%-1%-1%695%5/4610%-$8.2770
Falling wedge218%-7%21%18%2994%4/2813%$0.0150
Head-and-shoulders bottom209%-8%29%25%1971%22/10817%$1.6334
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Head-and-shoulders complex bottom103%-6%12%82%2/1017%
Rectangle top33%-7%1%1%6752%9/3620%$3.0317
Rising wedge82%-7%-4%101%1/254%
Round bottom29%-9%0%4%2/722%
Rounding top121%-10%1%26%1/118%
Ascending scallop163%-7%26%25%2090%8/3320%$2.6118
Descending scallop51%-9%-5%133%1/137%
Scallop, inverted and ascending66%-7%7%7%5469%13/5519%$0.8243
Scallop, descending and inverted109%-7%13%10%4754%6/2818%-$0.0251
Triangle, ascending108%-9%7%5%6033%5/3313%$1.9231
Triangle, descending54%-8%4%4%6151%9/3620%-$1.0959
Triangle, symmetrical433%-8%79%45%12149%31/12720%$2.5320
Triple bottom134%-7%21%13%4166%34/13420%-$2.5666
Rectangle bottom126%-7%6%7%51104%3/2810%-$1.5160
3 rising valleys189%-7%26%18%2877%19/9217%$0.7045
Roof87%-7%40%66%3/350%
Roof, inverted88%-5%28%108%6/1135%
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Diamond Tops: Busted Buy, Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

Table 6 shows the last combination of trading statistics. It shows busted diamond tops as the entry signal and various busted chart patterns as the exit signal. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

The associated figure shows the setup.

For example, buying a busted diamond top and selling a busted broadening top made 95% from the winners, lost 10% on the losers for a net gain of 17%. Annualized, it was 7%. The net gain placed the performance of this setup at 53, where 1 is best. Removing stops from the trades allowed them to make 87%. Only 35 trades were taken and 26% of them were winners. Expectancy was a gain of $2.59 per share, ranking 19th among the four tables.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 6: Statistics for Busted Buys and Sales
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom118%-10%6%48%1/713%
Broadening top95%-10%17%7%5387%9/2626%$2.5919
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending12%-8%-6%143%1/118%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descendingNone-7%-7%-7%0/100%
Broadening wedge, ascending89%-13%21%106%3/633%
Broadening wedge, descending33%-8%-1%36%2/1017%
Bump-and-run reversal bottom31%-8%-3%0%1/811%
Cup with handle6%-8%-5%68%1/420%
Diamond bottom95%-7%3%25%1/910%
Diamond top84%-6%11%25%3/1319%
Adam & Adam double bottom325%-8%41%17%35259%8/4615%$4.676
Adam & Eve double bottom221%-9%52%98%5/1426%
Eve & Adam double bottom356%-7%34%114%2/1611%
Eve & Eve double bottomNone-8%-8%30%0/120%
Falling wedge35%-14%8%72%5/645%
Head-and-shoulders bottom163%-8%25%12%4465%11/4619%$3.7111
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Head-and-shoulders complex bottom3%-8%-6%29%1/811%
Rectangle top73%-7%1%54%2/1910%
Rising wedge155%-8%5%120%1/118%
Round bottomNone-5%-5%56%0/40%
Ascending scallop114%-9%35%41%5/936%
Descending scallop18%-6%-2%56%2/820%
Scallop, inverted and ascending49%-11%-6%87%2/248%
Scallop, descending and inverted112%-9%13%41%2/918%
Triangle, ascending151%-9%11%34%2/1413%
Triangle, descending54%-8%5%31%3/1220%
Triangle, symmetrical108%-8%9%7%5291%11/6115%$0.7944
Triple bottom100%-9%18%11%4562%15/4625%$6.133
Rectangle bottom512%-9%78%96%2/1017%
3 rising valleys83%-9%14%5%5871%15/4525%$2.2823
Roof, inverted167%-7%32%72%2/722%
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Diamond Tops: Performance Improvements

Here are a few ideas the data suggested which may improve performance of your pattern pairs trading.

Trend Start: Short, Medium, or Long

Find the trend start for your chart pattern. Often you can just look at a chart and see where the trend begins. If not, or you want to be sure, then the glossary describes how to find it.

Determine the length from the trend start to the pattern's start: short term (less than 3 months), medium term (3 to 6 months) or long term (more than 6 months).

Table 7 shows the results for the four combinations of busted/non-busted trades and the resulting performance.

Buying non-busted patterns with a short-term (up to 3 months) duration from the trend start to the pattern's start results in better performance. Busted patterns do best using a medium (3 to 6 months) duration from the trend start.

Table 7: Short (S) Medium (M) or Long (L) Trend Start and Performance
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternS58% M6% L28%S51% M2% L14%
Buy busted patternS18% M52% L2%S23% M59% L-1%

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Moving Averages: 50- and 200-Day SMA

I checked two moving averages at buy time, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (not as a crossover setup). I compared the breakout price to the value of the moving average. Table 8 shows the performance of buying or selling busted or non-busted patterns when the breakout price was above (A) or below (B) the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Buy non-busted diamond tops when the breakout price is below the 50-day SMA. Buy busted diamond tops if the buy price was above the SMA.

Table 8: Above (A) Below (B) 50-Day Simple Moving Average
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternA31% B135%A24% B97%
Buy busted patternA16% B5%A17% B4%

Table 9 shows the results of using a longer moving average, the 200-day. Traders often use this as a proxy for the long-term trend.

Diamond tops worked best if the breakout price was below the 200-day SMA.

Table 9: Above (A) Below (B) 200-Day Simple Moving Average
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternA13% B169%A15% B93%
Buy busted patternA15% B16%A16% B16%

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Selling First Bearish Chart Pattern

The prior discussion assumes you buy a diamond top (busted or non-busted) but sell a chart pattern of your choosing, such as a downward breakout from a head-and-shoulders top (you wait for one to appear). What if you sold the first bearish chart pattern which comes along? How would you do?

Table 10 shows the results sorted by the type of patterns involved (busted or non-busted). For example, if you buy a non-busted diamond top and sell the first non-busted chart pattern which comes along, you'd make 8% on average. Annualized, you'd make 26%. This compares to a 30% annualized gain if you sell a designated pattern (like you waited for a double top before selling, which may or may not be the first bearish chart pattern to come along).

In three of four categories (table cells), selling a designated chart pattern will work better than selling the first bearish pattern. The only configuration where selling the first pattern works better is to buy a busted diamond top and sell the first non-busted pattern which appears. That makes 17% annually versus 10% when selling a designated pattern (like waiting for a double top to appear).

The bottom half of the table shows expectancy for the four combinations. The highest expectancy ($2.32) associates with buying a busted diamond top and selling non-busted patterns.

Table 10: Selling the First Bearish Pattern (Annualized)
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted pattern8% (26% v 30%)5% (18% v 21%)
Buy busted pattern7% (17% v 10%)-1% (-3% v 9%)
Expectancy (Below)
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted pattern$1.89$0.05
Buy busted pattern$2.32$-0.86

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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