As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
|
As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
| |
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
| ||
For more information on this pattern, read Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition, pictured on the right, pages 844 to 854. That chapter gives a complete review of the chart pattern, including tour, identification guidelines, focus on failures, performance statistics, trading tactics, and sample trade. Below is just a sliver of the information contained in the book.
The inverted dead-cat bounce is the name for this event pattern. Price makes a dramatic rise, from 5% to 20% or more, before declining at a more leisurely rate.
Characteristic | Discussion |
Price rise | Look for an event that causes price to jump at least 5% but it can be 20%, 50%, or even higher. Avoid those stocks with takeover rumors as they tend to stay high or move even higher. |
Higher high | Price typically moves higher the day following the event. |
Decline | After that, price tends to decline. |
The following is based on tens of thousands of samples covering both a bull and bear market. Since it uses averages, your results will vary. Trade it appropriately for the situation. I have seen a number of cases in which price continues to climb after an event. Thus, a sale after the initial price rise might cause you to miss a substantial upward move. Trade this one carefully.
Trading Tactic | Explanation |
Measure | Measure the close-to-close price difference from the day before the event to the event day (the day price shoots upward). Then match the percentage rise with the one in the left column below. |
5% rise | Sell the day after the initial rise. Buy back in during week 2 for a rise that lasts through week 4. |
10% rise | Sell the day after the initial rise. Price trends lower thereafter. |
15% rise | Sell the day after the initial rise. Price may bottom on day 3. Buy back in and hold until week 4 when price peaks. |
20% rise | Sell the day after the initial rise. Buy back on days 3 or 11 and sell early in week 2 or week 4. Price trends downward at the end of week 4. |
The above figure shows an example of an inverted dead-cat bounce event pattern. Price soars by 28%, measured close to close. The company reaffirmed earnings projections for the year and said earnings would be at the high end of the range. A broker downgraded the stock but that did not prevent price from jumping up. Price made a new high a day later and then started a slide back down. Price reached a high of 15 before dropping to a low of 9.95, a decline of over 33%.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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