As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
|
YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
|
YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
I show two charts of Encore Wire (WIRE), one on the weekly scale (top) and the other on the daily (bottom). Price formed a rounding bottom, outlined by the green line.
Rounding bottoms are not the easiest chart patterns to identify because the turn is slow, long, and you are searching for it midway through development. The weekly scale makes identification easier, so try that. Look for a graceful turn, supported on the bottom by a congestion zone. Notice how graceful the rounding turn looks on the weekly chart (right).
On the daily chart (below, right), notice the abrupt move up from A to B with price at C returning back to near the launch price of A. This brief move up (forming a double bottom, really) is common for rounding bottoms after the stock passes the midpoint. If you see this behavior, you can buy in with confidence near C. It does not always occur but when price sinks from B to C, it is no time to panic. The stock should find support at the bottom of the turn. And if not, then a stop placed below support will help limit the loss.
I bought the stock with a buy stop at B, when price moved above the congestion zone. If you cover up the right part of the chart after B, then you can see how I might think that price would continue moving up in a rounding turn. The brief climb to H I thought was the common bump up that I expected (instead of the A B C move).
My buy stop was at 17.73 and the order filled at 17.72. On the buy day, price peaked at 17.93 and in the coming days, the stock plummeted like a skydiver jumping off a cliff, bouncing off the rocks along the way down.
The company serves the home building industry, which is weak, and that made me nervous as price dropped.
Low priced stocks tend to be more volatile than high priced ones, so I hung in there. I saw the long support zone setup by the rounding bottom and hoped that price would find support at 15 or above. I set my stop at 15.16, or 14.4% down from the buy price. At C, the stock came within 3 cents of being stopped out.
After bottoming at C, the skydiver began climbing back up the mountain. Then the company announced earnings after the close of trading in late April (far right on the chart). I read the announcement and thought that it sounded positive, but anything can happen to price; the market decides whether or not it is better than expected. The gap up shows its conclusion.
I happened to be adjusting my stops online just after the market opened and saw the stock was up dramatically. I thought about it and decided to sell, receiving a fill at 22.
The reason for selling is that I believe price will retrace some of the gain to D, but how far price drops is anyone's guess. This is an example of an inverted dead-cat bounce, one of my favorite event patterns.
After the retrace, I expect the stock to climb again to E where it should run into overhead resistance setup by the flat tops at G, but it could stop earlier (anywhere from 24 to 27). Then it should form a handle, F, a congestion region to the right of the cup lip.
After that, expect price to move up, but that is well into the future. In short, I sold because I did not want to give back my hard earned gains in this volatile market. As the saying says, if the market gives you a gift, take it. I made 24% in about 2 months.
How can you duplicate this trade in other stocks and earn over 20%? Here's what to look for.
The chart shows what happened to the stock after I sold.
Price moved up to a new high and then eased lower, along with the general stock market.
Price continued dropping during the 2008 bear market and sank from about 25 to 13 and change in November 2008.
Selling was a bit premature, but it was the right decision.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to
Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
|
My Stock Market Books
|
My Novels
|
Welcome to Psychiatric Voice Mail. If you are a schizophrenic, listen carefully and a little voice will tell you which button to press.
on 
