As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski's Dow Utilities Forecast

Initial release: 2/7/2024.

Current Forecast

Dow Utilities chart

This is a chart of the Dow Utilities forecast for 2024.

It shows the Dow Utilities closing 19% higher for the year, at 1,049, perhaps boosted by interest rates scheduled to drop three times by the FED. The forecast low (lowest close) is in early January at 888. The highest close is 1,053, which happens in late December.

As of today, the actual price trend of the utilities has been downward, perhaps on nervousness that interest rates won't be cut when anticipated.

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Historical Dow Utilities Forecast

Below is the forecast for the years since 2014, presented in slider format (think slide show). Use the arrows on the left and right side of the chart to advance to the next slide (or go back one slide). The circles at the bottom of the chart allow you to move from slide to slide easily. Click on the circle to be taken to the associated slide.

The charts show the Dow Utilities in black price bars and the forecast in red using the daily scale. The year is listed on the chart in the upper left.

The forecast is the red line and it's based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


Picture of the Dow Utilities 2014 forecast on the daily scale

Both the 2014 and 2024 charts show a dip in May, so maybe we'll see weakness then.

Picture of the Dow Utilities 2015 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Dow Utilities 2016 forecast on the daily scale

Out of all of the charts I show since 2014, this chart shows the closest forecast, differing from the actual close by five percentage points.

Picture of the Dow Utilities 2017 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Dow Utilities 2018 forecast on the daily scale

The forecast tracks the actual price movement quite well until diverging in July.

Picture of the Dow Utilities 2019 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Dow Utilities 2020 forecast on the daily scale

The COVID-19 pandemic took the markets down in a swift but short bear market in February to March, as the chart shows. The recovery took longer, though, as the markets looked to the future.

Picture of the Dow Utilities 2021 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Dow Utilities 2022 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Dow Utilities 2023 forecast on the daily scale

See Also

 
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