As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Initial release: 2/7/2024.
This is a chart of the Dow Utilities forecast for 2024.
It shows the Dow Utilities closing 19% higher for the year, at 1,049, perhaps boosted by interest rates scheduled to drop three times by the FED. The forecast low (lowest close) is in early January at 888. The highest close is 1,053, which happens in late December.
As of today, the actual price trend of the utilities has been downward, perhaps on nervousness that interest rates won't be cut when anticipated.
Below is the forecast for the years since 2014, presented in slider format (think slide show). Use the arrows on the left and right side of the chart to advance to the next slide (or go back one slide). The circles at the bottom of the chart allow you to move from slide to slide easily. Click on the circle to be taken to the associated slide.
The charts show the Dow Utilities in black price bars and the forecast in red using the daily scale. The year is listed on the chart in the upper left.
The forecast is the red line and it's based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
Both the 2014 and 2024 charts show a dip in May, so maybe we'll see weakness then.
Out of all of the charts I show since 2014, this chart shows the closest forecast, differing from the actual close by five percentage points.
The forecast tracks the actual price movement quite well until diverging in July.
The COVID-19 pandemic took the markets down in a swift but short bear market in February to March, as the chart shows. The recovery took longer, though, as the markets looked to the future.
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