As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski's Nasdaq Forecast

Initial release: 2/6/2024.

Current Forecast

Nasdaq chart

This is a chart of the Nasdaq forecast for 2024.

It shows the Nasdaq closing 8% higher for the year, at 16,212. The forecast low (lowest close) is in May at 14,177. The highest close is 16,217, which happens in late December.

I don't believe the forecast will be correct. Why? Because interest rates will probably drop this year (three times are anticipated, with the first coming in March) and that will be good for the stock market. So I'm looking for the index to rise this year, not drop going into the May low.

Having written that, if the FED does not drop rates at the anticipated times, then you could see the Nasdaq stumble, such as the drop to May.

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Historical Nasdaq Forecast

Below is the forecast for the years since 2014, presented in slider format (think slide show). Use the arrows on the left and right side of the chart to advance to the next slide (or go back one slide). The circles at the bottom of the chart allow you to move from slide to slide easily. Click on the circle to be taken to the associated slide.

The charts show the Nasdaq in black price bars and the forecast in red using the daily scale. The year is listed on the chart in the upper left.

The forecast is the red line and it's based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


Picture of the Nasdaq 2014 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2015 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2016 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2017 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2018 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2019 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2020 forecast on the daily scale

The COVID-19 pandemic took the markets down in a swift but short bear market in February to March, as the chart shows. The recovery took longer, though, as the markets looked to the future.

If we could flip the forecast upside down, it would better match the forecast.

Picture of the Nasdaq 2021 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2022 forecast on the daily scale
Picture of the Nasdaq 2023 forecast on the daily scale

See Also

 
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