As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025
16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025
1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025
20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025
6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
|
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025
16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025
1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025
20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025
6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
| ||
My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition, pictured on the left, has a section covering 10 event patterns, but, sadly, common stock offerings is not one of them.
If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.
$ $ $
I was playing with common stock offerings, trying to build a trading setup on the behavior of the event pattern. Since price drops after an offering, I researched shorting a stock and lost about $63 per trade on a $10,000 investment.
I tried going long and made only $53 per trade. Yawn.
Then I tried something new and made $2,500 per trade (on average). What's better is the setup has never failed (100% win/loss ratio)! We've struck the mother lode! Well, there is a tiny problem. It's called drawdown.
Here's what I did. I looked at 267 common stock offerings from March 2004 to November 2009, which includes the recent bear market.
After the company prices the common stock offering, do the following.
That's all there is to it. The secret, is buying and holding, of course, and being willing to ride out any dips along the way.
For example, shown is a picture of Atlas Air Worldwide on the daily scale. Point D is the day price closed before the offering of common stock. It's the target price for the trade. The company announced the offering at A (but did NOT price the offering yet) and price gapped lower. They announced the PRICE of the offering at B. Many times, the announcement and pricing occur on the say day, but not in this example. Wait until they PRICE the offering.
From B onward, place a buy stop a penny above the day's high and lower it each day as the high price drops. That will get you into the stock at the opening price at C. The percentage move from C to D should be at least 10%. Otherwise, skip the trade (in other words, don't actually place a limit order until the high price is more than 10% below D. You don't have to follow this step).
Once you are into the trade, place a limit order to sell when price hits D.
That's going to take some time, so hold your nose while the stock fluctuates. In both bull and bear markets, the stocks are going to drop below the purchase price. One in my study dropped 84% before recovering. If you want to limit drawdown to 10% (think of placing a stop 10% below the buy price), then gains drop from $2500 to $560, on average. Yes, using stops are painful...
The trade shown here made 33% in 34 days.
Here's the numbers.
If including bear market results...
If you DON'T require a 10% minimum profit margin (the distance from C to D in the figure), for bull and bear market trades...
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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