Small Perf

As of 02/21/2025

Indus: 43,428 -748.63 -1.7%

Trans: 16,034 -430.64 -2.6%

Utils: 1,023 +3.75 +0.4%

Nasdaq: 19,524 -438.35 -2.2%

S&P 500: 6,013 -104.39 -1.7%

YTD

+2.1%

+0.9%

+4.1%

+1.1%

+2.2%

Targets Overview: 02/13/2025

42,500 or 45,000 by 03/01/2025

16,900 or 15,800 by 03/01/2025

1,050 or 970 by 03/01/2025

19,200 or 20,500 by 03/01/2025

5,875 or 6,200 by 03/01/2025

Chart Pattern Indicator:

on 2/19/25

As of 02/21/2025

Indus: 43,428 -748.63 -1.7%

Trans: 16,034 -430.64 -2.6%

Utils: 1,023 +3.75 +0.4%

Nasdaq: 19,524 -438.35 -2.2%

S&P 500: 6,013 -104.39 -1.7%

YTD

+2.1%

+0.9%

+4.1%

+1.1%

+2.2%

Targets Overview: 02/13/2025

42,500 or 45,000 by 03/01/2025

16,900 or 15,800 by 03/01/2025

1,050 or 970 by 03/01/2025

19,200 or 20,500 by 03/01/2025

5,875 or 6,200 by 03/01/2025

Chart Pattern Indicator:

on 2/19/25

Bulkowski on Small Pattern Performance

Small Pattern Performance: Overview

Small Pattern Performance: Stocks

Twice Height Exit Performance in Stocks
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
2-Dance	54%	40%	$54.37	Up	2	Yes
2-Dance	54%	40%	$83.54	Down	2	Yes
2-Close, bullish	71%	38%	$76.96	Up	3	Yes
2-Close, bullish	71%	38%	$83.09	Down	3	No
2-Close, bearish	35%	35%	$56.52	Up	3	No
2-Close, bearish	35%	35%	$92.77	Down	3	Yes

Small Pattern Performance: Stock Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance in stocks. When I did the small patterns tests, I picked from 1 to 7 price bars and logged how those patterns performed. I would call the selection random, except I skipped several in a row to keep the sample counts reasonable. Entry was a penny above the highest price bar in the pattern. Exit was a stop loss a penny below the lowest low in the pattern. Target exit was twice the height of the pattern added to the top of the pattern. There were other conditions, such as a minimum stock price of $5. See Method for details. In other words, I used the same trading rules in the same stocks except the patterns chosen here did not have any identification guidelines.

Some patterns use weekly data (horns, pipes) and one pattern needed the entry to be delayed for a week.

Benchmark Performance in Stocks
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	51%	41%	$32.55	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	51%	41%	$62.36	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	52%	49%	$29.08	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	52%	49%	$51.85	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	52%	37%	$48.01	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	52%	37%	$68.70	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	38%	$200.96	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	38%	$253.78	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	53%	36%	$73.54	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	53%	36%	$83.91	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	61%	38%	$232.18	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	66%	38%	$259.81	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	54%	36%	$88.58	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	54%	36%	$100.27	Down	4
5 bar benchmark	55%	36%	$102.71	Up	5
5 bar benchmark	55%	36%	$131.16	Down	5
7 bar benchmark	57%	35%	$138.22	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	57%	35%	$145.03	Down	7

Small Pattern Performance: ETFs

Twice Height Exit Performance in ETFs
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
2-Dance	57%	43%	$49.24	Up	2	Yes
2-Dance	57%	43%	$76.71	Down	2	Yes
2-Close, bullish	70%	38%	$36.16	Up	3	No
2-Close, bullish	70%	38%	$41.52	Down	3	No
2-Close, bearish	36%	36%	$48.23	Up	3	No
2-Close, bearish	36%	36%	$52.20	Down	3	No

Small Pattern Performance: ETFs Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance in exchange traded funds (ETFs). Selection and trading is the same as described for the stock benchmark except I picked from ETFs.

Benchmark Performance in Exchange Traded Funds
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	53%	49%	$38.39	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	53%	49%	$49.24	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	54%	56%	$31.17	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	54%	56%	$29.98	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	55%	41%	$48.84	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	55%	41%	$51.31	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	60%	39%	$174.53	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	60%	39%	$180.35	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	55%	39%	$68.94	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	55%	39%	$68.34	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	62%	40%	$213.50	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	62%	40%	$213.94	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	56%	38%	$85.22	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	56%	38%	$83.76	Down	4
5 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$99.79	Up	5
5 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$90.88	Down	5
7 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$110.80	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$145.44	Down	7

Small Pattern Performance: Cryptocurrency

Twice Height Exit Performance in Cryptocurrency
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
2-Dance	51%	44%	$136.43	Up	2	No
2-Dance	51%	44%	$224.85	Down	2	Yes
2-Close, bullish	74%	43%	$173.84	Up	3	No
2-Close, bullish	74%	43%	$170.38	Down	3	No
2-Close, bearish	31%	41%	$296.56	Up	3	Yes
2-Close, bearish	31%	41%	$27.75	Down	3	No

Small Pattern Performance: Cryptocurrency Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance in cryptocurrency. Selection and trading is the same as described for the stock benchmark except I picked from cryptocurrencies.

Benchmark Performance in Cryptocurrency
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	51%	45%	$146.81	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	51%	45%	$122.37	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	50%	54%	$152.49	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	50%	54%	$112.00	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	51%	43%	$214.65	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	51%	43%	$147.18	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	55%	$648.76	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	55%	$537.68	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	49%	43%	$224.62	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	49%	43%	$209.61	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	53%	$630.42	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	53%	$765.20	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	48%	45%	$358.38	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	48%	45%	$250.23	Down	4
7 bar benchmark	54%	45%	$320.01	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	54%	45%	$253.40	Down	7