As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
My book,
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition
The throwback and pullback discussion in the book begins on page 217 in the section imaginatively titled, "Throwbacks and Pullbacks." 
If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.
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This article discusses partial rises and declines, throwbacks and pullbacks. Do throwbacks and pullbacks occur more often after partial rises and declines? The research discussed below says no.
The two images on the right and left are almost self explanatory, but if you need more information, click on the link to partial rises or partial declines.
Traders see these patterns after broadening tops and bottoms, rectangles (tops and bottoms), and even in some triangles. When they occur, they predict the breakout direction. Partial rises predict an immediate downward breakout and a partial decline means an upward breakout.
These next pair of images (right and left) are of throwbacks and pullbacks. Throwbacks occur after an upward breakout and pullbacks happen after a downward breakout. Just when you think price is going against you, it turns around and resumes the original breakout direction.
If you are a nimble trader, you can place an order to enter a trade at the breakout price and exit within a few days before the pullback or throwback occurs, capturing the initial move before the reversal occurs. In all chart patterns, throwbacks and pullbacks occur 53% and 56% of the time, respectively, based on research using over 10,000 chart patterns.
The reason I bring up all of this is from an email I received several months ago. I don't remember who sent it, but thanks for the idea. He asked the question, does a throwback or pullback occur more often after a partial decline or partial rise? The short answer is no.
I scanned all rectangles and broadening tops and bottoms and found 1,831 examples of those patterns. The following table lists how often the anomalies occur in the samples.
| Partial rise | 28% |
| Partial decline | 24% |
| Throwback | 24% |
| Pullback | 32% |
When I add throwbacks and pullbacks without partial rises and declines, I get the following.
| Throwback and no partial rise | 26% |
| Throwback and no partial decline | 21% |
| Pullback and no partial rise | 13% |
| Pullback and no partial decline | 21% |
The percentages drop, just as you would expect since the test excludes patterns with partial rises and declines.
Finally, I add partial rises and declines into the picture to get the following.
| Throwback and partial rise | 5% |
| Throwback and partial decline | 11% |
| Pullback and partial rise | 10% |
| Pullback and partial decline | 3% |
The table says that there are substantially fewer partial rises and declines that lead to throwbacks and pullbacks. So that's the answer. It's less likely that a throwback or pullback will occur after a partial rise or decline.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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