As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
My book,
Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts
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The opening white marubozu performs much like other marubozu candles: Lousy. This one acts as a continuation 54% of the time, ranking 34, but it has a frequency rank of 7. That means you will find it not only on every street corner, but growing out of every crack in the sidewalk along the way. Overall performance is a distant 75th out of 103 candles where 1 is best. The candle may look pretty, but its investment implications are marginal at best.
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Theoretical performance: Continuation
Tested performance: Continuation 54% of the time
Frequency rank: 7
Overall performance rank: 75
Best percentage meeting price target: 71% (bear market, down breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: -4.37% (bear market, down breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 37 (bull market, down breakout)
All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts. The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions. |
 Opening White Marubozu
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As I mentioned in the introduction, the opening white marubozu candlestick is not a star performer. In fact, it acts almost randomly -- 54% of the time price continues the prevailing trend after the breakout. Ten days after the downward breakout in a bear market, price declined an average of 4.37% over that span. That is the best showing among the four categories of bull/bear market and up/down breakouts that I looked at. A good showing would be a drop of at least 6%, so the opening white marubozu falls well short. The performance rank over 10 days agrees with my assessment. The candle ranks 37th. That is the same position that I had in my graduating high school class, but I had more than 103 classmates to compete against.
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| Number of candle lines | One |
| Price trend leading to the pattern | None required. |
| Configuration | Look for a tall white candle with an upper shadow but no lower one. |
If you want a few bones from my Encyclopedia of candlestick charts book, here are three to chew on. The pages refer to the book where the tips appear.
The daily chart shows two opening white marubozu candlesticks at A and B. Each is a tall white candle with no lower shadow but one that pokes out the top. Height is relative. Compare the height with other recent candles to gauge whether or not the candle is "tall."
Both of these opening white marubozu candles appear in an upward price trend. The breakout, which is a close above the top of the candle (upward breakout) or below the bottom of the candle (downward breakout) is upward in both cases. A study I conducted and discussed in my Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts book is that a minor high or low occurs within a day (plus or minus) of a tall candle between 67% (minor high) and 72% (minor low) of the time. You can see that at B. Price peaks a day later and then reverses. Traditional candle theory says that after an opening white marubozu, you can expect a nice long price run. My statistical research suggests otherwise.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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