As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
On 9/18/2020, I decided to ignore volume shapes because it's too hard to apply the shape to various chart patterns consistently. Long chart patterns, for example, might be composed of several volume shapes with a mix of peaks and valleys. Perhaps a more refined (mechanical) or consistent way of categorizing the volume shapes might give better results.
Volume has in five distinct shapes but two types appear most often during the formation of chart patterns: U and dome. The other shapes, up, down, and flat, I lump together as a random shape because they are rare. Think of the random volume shape as not U and not dome.
Usually, the volume shape is obvious except in long chart patterns, such as rounding turns, which may have several volume shapes. Use the most recent volume shape (the volume shape closest to the breakout) as the determining pattern. At the end of this page is a table of patterns that don't have a volume preference.
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Volume is higher at the ends of the chart pattern than in the middle. Usually, the volume peaks correspond to price turning points in the chart pattern. U-shaped volume has the most chart patterns in its list – 27. The following table shows which chart patterns do better post breakout with U-shaped volume.
| Chart Patterns in a bull market |
| Big W, up and down breakouts |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending, down breakouts |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and descending, up breakouts |
| Broadening tops, down breakouts |
| Broadening wedge, ascending, up breakouts |
| Broadening wedge, descending, down breakouts |
| Bump-and-run reversal bottoms |
| Cup with handle |
| Diamond tops, down breakouts (tie with dome-shape) |
| Double bottoms, Eve & Eve |
| Double tops, Adam & Eve |
| Double tops, Eve & Eve (tied with random) |
| Flags, down breakouts |
| Head-and-shoulders bottoms |
| Head-and-shoulders bottoms, complex (tied with random) |
| Head-and-shoulders tops |
| Head-and-shoulders tops, complex |
| Island reversals, up breakouts |
| Pennants, up or down breakouts |
| Rounding tops, up or down breakouts |
| Scallops, ascending, up breakouts |
| Three falling peaks |
| Three rising valleys |
| Triangles, ascending, down breakouts. |
| Triangles, descending, up breakouts. |
| Triangles, symmetrical, up breakouts (tied with dome shape) |
| Triple tops |
| Wedges, rising, up breakouts |
Dome shaped volume is the inverted version of the U-shape. Volume is higher in the middle of the chart pattern than at the ends. Dome shaped volume has 17 patterns in its list, the smallest of the three shapes. The following table shows which chart patterns do better with dome-shaped volume.
| Chart Patterns in a bull market |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending, up breakouts |
| Broadening tops, up breakouts |
| Diamond bottoms, up breakouts |
| Diamond tops, down breakouts(tie with U-shape) |
| Double bottoms, Adam &Adam |
| Double bottoms, Adam &Eve |
| Double bottoms, Eve &Adam |
| Double tops, Eve & Adam |
| Islands, long, up or down breakouts |
| Rectangle tops, down breakouts |
| Scallops, ascending, down breakouts |
| Scallops, descending, up breakouts |
| Triangles, descending, down breakouts (tied with random shape) |
| Triangles, symmetrical, up breakouts (tied with U shape) |
| Triple bottoms |
| Wedges, falling, down breakouts (tied with random shape) |
| Wedges, rising, down breakouts |
A random volume shape is one that is not domed and not U-shaped. It may be flat, inclined, declined, or just have a rugged appearance with no discernable shape. The random volume shape has 20 entries in its list, second only to the U shape. The following chart patterns perform better with a random volume shape.
| Chart Patterns in a bull market |
| Broadening bottoms, up or down breakouts |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and descending, down breakouts |
| Broadening wedge, descending, up breakouts |
| Diamond bottoms, down breakouts |
| Diamond tops, up breakouts |
| Double tops, Adam & Adam |
| Double tops, Eve & Eve (tied with U-shape) |
| Flags, up breakouts |
| Flags, high and tight |
| Head-and-shoulders bottoms (tied with U-shape) |
| Island reversals, down breakouts |
| Rectangle bottoms, up or down breakouts |
| Rectangle tops, up breakouts |
| Rounding bottoms |
| Scallops, descending, down breakouts |
| Triangles, ascending, up breakouts. |
| Triangles, descending, down breakouts (tied with dome shape) |
| Triangles, symmetrical, down breakouts |
| Wedges, falling, up breakouts |
| Wedges, falling, down breakouts (tied with dome shape) |
The following chart patterns show no volume shape preference. That means performance is the same across all volume shapes.
| Chart Patterns in a bull market |
| Broadening wedge, ascending, down breakouts |
| Bump-and-run reversal tops |
| Cup with handle, inverted |
| Scallops, ascending and inverted |
| Scallops, descending and inverted |
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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