As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 8/31/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Tuesday August 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The chart remains bullish this week but the thin blue line near chart bottom (the CPI line) has dropped today. That's the result of weakness in the markets. It might be an early signal of a retrace coming or it could be fake. The CPI can change for up to a week.
This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.
Much to my surprise, the industrials continue to show strength. However, September is historically the weakest month of the year. Sixty percent of the time the month has closed lower, but that number is a several years old (since I conducted the study). To reach the forecast, it would have to make a significant plunge (24%) and I don't see that happening.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.
It appears that if you flip the forecast upside down, the prediction (red line) would be closer to reality.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
The S&P is defying gravity this year, just like the other indices.
Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.
After about mid summer of 2022, the Dow should post good gains for over five years, peaking in 2028 and struggling from there.
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