As of 02/03/2023
Indus: 33,926 -127.93 -0.4%
Trans: 15,518 -122.49 -0.8%
Utils: 954 -22.84 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 12,007 -193.87 -1.6%
S&P 500: 4,136 -43.28 -1.0%
|
YTD
+2.3%
+15.9%
-1.4%
+14.7%
+7.7%
|
|
As of 02/03/2023
Indus: 33,926 -127.93 -0.4%
Trans: 15,518 -122.49 -0.8%
Utils: 954 -22.84 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 12,007 -193.87 -1.6%
S&P 500: 4,136 -43.28 -1.0%
|
YTD
+2.3%
+15.9%
-1.4%
+14.7%
+7.7%
| |
| ||
This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.
How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).
I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.
I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.
Metric | Result |
Bull Markets | |
Average length | 3.0 years (1,091 days) |
Median length | 2.5 years (924 days) |
Current* length | 6.0 years (2,097 days) |
Average rise | 106% |
Median rise | 74% |
Current* rise | 177% |
Bear Markets | |
Average length | 1 year (361 days) |
Median length | 1.1 years (386 days) |
Average decline | 35% |
Median decline | 30% |
* as of 3/13/2015 |
At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.
The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.
The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.
The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.
The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.
The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.
That's good news for people that buy and hold.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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