As of 12/06/2024
  Indus: 44,643 -123.19 -0.3%  
  Trans: 16,879 -97.04 -0.6%  
  Utils: 1,036 -11.79 -1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 19,860 +159.51 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 6,090 +15.16 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.4%  
 +6.2%  
 +17.4%  
 +32.3%  
 +27.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024
As of 12/06/2024
  Indus: 44,643 -123.19 -0.3%  
  Trans: 16,879 -97.04 -0.6%  
  Utils: 1,036 -11.79 -1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 19,860 +159.51 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 6,090 +15.16 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.4%  
 +6.2%  
 +17.4%  
 +32.3%  
 +27.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

Bull/Bear Market Longevity
MetricResult
Bull Markets
Average length 3.0 years (1,091 days) 
Median length2.5 years (924 days)
Current* length6.0 years (2,097 days)
Average rise106%
Median rise74%
Current* rise177%
Bear Markets
Average length1 year (361 days)
Median length1.1 years (386 days)
Average decline35%
Median decline30%
* as of 3/13/2015

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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