As of 09/28/2022   Indus: 29,684 +548.75 +1.9%     Trans: 12,457 +303.78 +2.5%     Utils: 945 +10.61 +1.1%     Nasdaq: 11,052 +222.14 +2.1%     S&P 500: 3,719 +71.75 +2.0%	YTD -18.3%   -24.4%   -3.7%   -29.4%   -22.0%	Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022     32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022   13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022   990 or 900 by 10/15/2022   11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022   3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 9/28/22

As of 09/28/2022   Indus: 29,684 +548.75 +1.9%     Trans: 12,457 +303.78 +2.5%     Utils: 945 +10.61 +1.1%     Nasdaq: 11,052 +222.14 +2.1%     S&P 500: 3,719 +71.75 +2.0%	YTD -18.3%   -24.4%   -3.7%   -29.4%   -22.0%
Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022     32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022   13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022   990 or 900 by 10/15/2022   11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022   3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 9/28/22

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Shows a 10-year forecast for the Dow.
• Market & stock trends. Buy in a downtrend, sell on the uptrend.
• Holidays. Does the market rise or fall before and after holidays? Answer: Fall.
• Best buy days. Which day of the week is the best one to buy or sell?
• Best buy months. Can buying at the end of the worst performing month and selling at the best performing be profitable?
• Seasonality. What are the best months to buy and sell stocks?

 

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