As of 06/02/2023   Indus: 33,763 +701.19 +2.1%     Trans: 14,150 +270.31 +1.9%     Utils: 900 +9.20 +1.0%     Nasdaq: 13,241 +139.79 +1.1%     S&P 500: 4,282 +61.35 +1.5%	YTD  +1.9%    +5.7%   -7.0%    +26.5%    +11.5%	Targets    Overview: 05/30/2023     33,950 or 32,000 by 06/15/2023   14,600 or 13,350 by 06/15/2023   935 or 880 by 06/15/2023   13,600 or 12,200 by 06/15/2023   4,350 or 4,000 by 06/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 6/1/23

As of 06/02/2023   Indus: 33,763 +701.19 +2.1%     Trans: 14,150 +270.31 +1.9%     Utils: 900 +9.20 +1.0%     Nasdaq: 13,241 +139.79 +1.1%     S&P 500: 4,282 +61.35 +1.5%	YTD  +1.9%    +5.7%   -7.0%    +26.5%    +11.5%
Targets    Overview: 05/30/2023     33,950 or 32,000 by 06/15/2023   14,600 or 13,350 by 06/15/2023   935 or 880 by 06/15/2023   13,600 or 12,200 by 06/15/2023   4,350 or 4,000 by 06/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 6/1/23

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Boosting retirement income.
• Bear Markets: How often do stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds drop 30% or more?
• Shows a 10-year forecast for the Dow.
• Market & stock trends. Buy in a downtrend, sell on the uptrend.
• Holidays. Does the market rise or fall before and after holidays? Answer: Fall.
• Best buy days. Which day of the week is the best one to buy or sell?
• Best buy months. Can buying at the end of the worst performing month and selling at the best performing be profitable?
• Seasonality. What are the best months to buy and sell stocks?

 

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