As of 02/03/2023   Indus: 33,926 -127.93 -0.4%     Trans: 15,518 -122.49 -0.8%     Utils: 954 -22.84 -2.3%     Nasdaq: 12,007 -193.87 -1.6%     S&P 500: 4,136 -43.28 -1.0%	YTD  +2.3%    +15.9%   -1.4%    +14.7%    +7.7%	Targets    Overview: 02/01/2023     35,100 or 33,150 by 02/15/2023   16,000 or 14,350 by 02/15/2023   1,040 or 950 by 02/15/2023   12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023   4,250 or 3,900 by 02/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 1/19/23

As of 02/03/2023   Indus: 33,926 -127.93 -0.4%     Trans: 15,518 -122.49 -0.8%     Utils: 954 -22.84 -2.3%     Nasdaq: 12,007 -193.87 -1.6%     S&P 500: 4,136 -43.28 -1.0%	YTD  +2.3%    +15.9%   -1.4%    +14.7%    +7.7%
Targets    Overview: 02/01/2023     35,100 or 33,150 by 02/15/2023   16,000 or 14,350 by 02/15/2023   1,040 or 950 by 02/15/2023   12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023   4,250 or 3,900 by 02/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 1/19/23

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Boosting retirement income.
• Bear Markets: How often do stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds drop 30% or more?
• Shows a 10-year forecast for the Dow.
• Market & stock trends. Buy in a downtrend, sell on the uptrend.
• Holidays. Does the market rise or fall before and after holidays? Answer: Fall.
• Best buy days. Which day of the week is the best one to buy or sell?
• Best buy months. Can buying at the end of the worst performing month and selling at the best performing be profitable?
• Seasonality. What are the best months to buy and sell stocks?

 

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