As of 07/18/2025   Indus: 44,342 -142.30 -0.3%     Trans: 15,862 -110.48 -0.7%     Utils: 1,074 +17.27 +1.6%     Nasdaq: 20,896 +10.01 +0.0%     S&P 500: 6,297 -0.57 0.0%	YTD  +4.2%   -0.2%    +9.3%    +8.2%    +7.1%	Targets    Overview: 07/15/2025     45,300 or 43,000 by 08/01/2025   17,400 or 15,000 by 08/01/2025   1,140 or 1,025 by 08/01/2025   21,300 or 19,600 by 08/01/2025   6,425 or 6,000 by 08/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 7/11/25

As of 07/18/2025   Indus: 44,342 -142.30 -0.3%     Trans: 15,862 -110.48 -0.7%     Utils: 1,074 +17.27 +1.6%     Nasdaq: 20,896 +10.01 +0.0%     S&P 500: 6,297 -0.57 0.0%	YTD  +4.2%   -0.2%    +9.3%    +8.2%    +7.1%
Targets    Overview: 07/15/2025     45,300 or 43,000 by 08/01/2025   17,400 or 15,000 by 08/01/2025   1,140 or 1,025 by 08/01/2025   21,300 or 19,600 by 08/01/2025   6,425 or 6,000 by 08/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 7/11/25

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Boosting retirement income.
• Bear Markets: How often do stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds drop 30% or more?
• Shows a 10-year forecast for the Dow.
• Market & stock trends. Buy in a downtrend, sell on the uptrend.
• Holidays. Does the market rise or fall before and after holidays? Answer: Fall.
• Best buy days. Which day of the week is the best one to buy or sell?
• Best buy months. Can buying at the end of the worst performing month and selling at the best performing be profitable?
• Seasonality. What are the best months to buy and sell stocks?

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My Stock Market Books Invest for Two-Comma Wealth Chart Patterns: After the Buy Encyclopedia of Chart Pattern, 3rd Edition Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Getting Started in Chart Patterns, 2nd Edition Swing and Day Trading Trading Basics

My Novels Bumper's Story Orb Foresight  Head's Law Remember Me

Copyright © 2005-2025 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Privacy/Disclaimer ☰

Don't let people drive you crazy when you know it's in walking distance.