As of 05/18/2022
Indus: 31,490 -1,164.52 -3.6%
Trans: 13,692 -1,096.25 -7.4%
Utils: 992 -9.94 -1.0%
Nasdaq: 11,418 -566.37 -4.7%
S&P 500: 3,924 -165.17 -4.0%
|
YTD
-13.3%
-16.9%
+1.1%
-27.0%
-17.7%
|
 33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/202215,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/20221,050 or 940 by 06/01/202212,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/20224,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022 |
As of 05/18/2022
Indus: 31,490 -1,164.52 -3.6%
Trans: 13,692 -1,096.25 -7.4%
Utils: 992 -9.94 -1.0%
Nasdaq: 11,418 -566.37 -4.7%
S&P 500: 3,924 -165.17 -4.0%
|
YTD
-13.3%
-16.9%
+1.1%
-27.0%
-17.7%
| |
|
33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/202215,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/20221,050 or 940 by 06/01/202212,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/20224,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022 | ||
This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.
How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).
I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.
I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.
| Metric | Result |
| Bull Markets | |
| Average length | 3.0 years (1,091 days) |
| Median length | 2.5 years (924 days) |
| Current* length | 6.0 years (2,097 days) |
| Average rise | 106% |
| Median rise | 74% |
| Current* rise | 177% |
| Bear Markets | |
| Average length | 1 year (361 days) |
| Median length | 1.1 years (386 days) |
| Average decline | 35% |
| Median decline | 30% |
| * as of 3/13/2015 | |
At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.
The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.
The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.
The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.
The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.
The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.
That's good news for people that buy and hold.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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