As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast August Update

Released 7/30/2021.

Forecast Updated for August 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday July 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

I don't use a lot of indicators in my trading but there's a reliable pattern called a failure swing. That's the M-shaped pattern circled here in red. In this example, the second peak is above the first, so maybe it's not a true failure swing. It suggests the indicator and market are headed lower. I don't know how well failure swings work on the CPI, so treat this signal with care. It could be incorrect.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.

The forecast peaked at A and was supposed to drop to B. Instead, the Dow has climbed, forming a sort of head-and-shoulders bottom starting at the low in May (directly above A).

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

It shows another way to look at the price trend between the two. The forecast is dropping even as the Nasdaq is rising. That's bearish divergence, which I show with the blue lines.

If the delta variant powers up, maybe we'll see the indices drop like the red line forecasts.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

More divergence between the forecast and reality going into the September low.

One more: 10 year chart.
5 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.

After about mid summer of 2022, the Dow should post good gains for over five years, peaking in 2028 and struggling from there.

The end.

See Also

 
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