As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Bulkowski's Volatility versus Performance Study

Volatility v. Performance: Summary

I looked at price volatility versus performance and found that rising volatility during the five days leading to the upward breakout from a chart pattern suggests better post breakout performance than falling volatility, but the difference is slight.

For downward breakouts, the results were less pronounced and reversed, with falling volatility showing better post breakout performance than rising volatility.

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My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition pictured on the left, takes an in-depth look at 63 chart and event patterns, including performance statistics.

If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.

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Volatility v. Performance: Definitions and Method

Volatility is the daily difference between the high and low prices. I used three look back periods in the test: start of chart pattern to day before breakout, 10 days, and 5 days before the breakout. I used linear regression to determine the slope of a line based on price volatility. Then I measured the rise from the breakout to the ultimate high, or the decline from the breakout to the ultimate low. The ultimate high is the highest high before a 20% price drop. The ultimate low is the lowest low before a 20% price rise. The search for the ultimate high or low ends if price moves to the side opposite the chart pattern (meaning, if price hits a stop first).

In the test, I used 45 chart pattern types (double bottoms, head-and-shoulders bottoms, and so on) in 1,275 stocks from 7/1991 to 3/2006, but few of the stocks covered the entire period. Not all stocks had useful chart patterns.

Volatility versus Performance: Detailed Results

Here are the detailed results.

Each box shows the number of samples involved in the test in parentheses and the resulting rise or decline from the chart pattern after the breakout. The 5-day look back appears to be the best measure of volatility versus post breakout performance (compared to a 10-day look back or from the start of the chart pattern to the day before the breakout).

For example, a stock showing rising volatility has an average rise of 32.2% after an upward breakout. A stock with falling volatility rises an average of 31.0%. Downward breakouts show that chart patterns with falling volatility tend to outperform, 21.2% versus 20.6%.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

More

See Also

• Volatility with a certain range can improve trading performance.
• Noise. Find out how long stocks and ETFs trend.
• Scaling in. Adding to a position may not pay.
• Scaling out. Should you sell a portion of your position?
• Trade review. Reviewing trades can lead to profits.
• Zero-cost averaging. What is it?

A day or firm decisions! Or is it?