As of 10/03/2022
  Indus: 29,491 +765.38 +2.7%  
  Trans: 12,465 +406.70 +3.4%  
  Utils: 915 +26.32 +3.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,815 +239.81 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,678 +92.81 +2.6%  
YTD
-18.8%  
-24.4%  
-6.7%  
-30.9%  
-22.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow30,800 or 27,500 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow950 or 850 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,500 or 9,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 10/3/22
As of 10/03/2022
  Indus: 29,491 +765.38 +2.7%  
  Trans: 12,465 +406.70 +3.4%  
  Utils: 915 +26.32 +3.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,815 +239.81 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,678 +92.81 +2.6%  
YTD
-18.8%  
-24.4%  
-6.7%  
-30.9%  
-22.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow30,800 or 27,500 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow950 or 850 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,500 or 9,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 10/3/22

Bulkowski's September 2022 Forecast Update

Released 8/31/2022.

Forecast Updated for September 2022

Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on August 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

Today's reading says the indicator is still bearish. It signaled a few days after the mid August peak and has remained bearish. You can see the signal as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.

Notice that the thin blue indicator line is at or near zero. Usually we see a rebound in the market within a week or so when a reading of 0 happens.

I think the retrace will last a few more days (perhaps sooner, or longer) before beginning a rebound. I expect the indices to be higher than today in 2 weeks.

The next chart looks at the 2022 forecast update for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

If the forecast (in red) is correct, look for weakness in the Dow industrials until early October. Note that the index remains down for the year.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

This chart shows a mild dip going into the October low, but it's higher than the forecasted July bottom. That suggests the market is firming. The Nasdaq also will close below the year's start if the forecast is correct.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

This chart is similar to the prior one. It shows weakness going into October and then a rebound which will leave the index below it's start.

Next 2026 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

This is the chart I like to see. Point A marks the forecast low for the year (red line). So far, the forecasted bottom was only off by a month (monthly scale).

Today's close was about 11,800 but in 9 year's time, the forecast predicts a close of 48,300. You can quadruple your money during that span if you buy the QQQs (an exchange traded fund)...if the forecast is accurate. It's a nice scenario...

The end.

See Also

 
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