As of 04/26/2024
Indus: 38,240 +153.86 +0.4%
Trans: 15,171 -126.01 -0.8%
Utils: 884 -10.33 -1.2%
Nasdaq: 15,928 +316.14 +2.0%
S&P 500: 5,100 +51.54 +1.0%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.6%
+0.3%
+6.1%
+6.9%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/26/2024
Indus: 38,240 +153.86 +0.4%
Trans: 15,171 -126.01 -0.8%
Utils: 884 -10.33 -1.2%
Nasdaq: 15,928 +316.14 +2.0%
S&P 500: 5,100 +51.54 +1.0%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.6%
+0.3%
+6.1%
+6.9%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 8/31/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on August 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
Today's reading says the indicator is still bearish. It signaled a few days after the mid August peak and has remained bearish. You can see the signal as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.
Notice that the thin blue indicator line is at or near zero. Usually we see a rebound in the market within a week or so when a reading of 0 happens.
I think the retrace will last a few more days (perhaps sooner, or longer) before beginning a rebound. I expect the indices to be higher than today in 2 weeks.
If the forecast (in red) is correct, look for weakness in the Dow industrials until early October. Note that the index remains down for the year.
This chart shows a mild dip going into the October low, but it's higher than the forecasted July bottom. That suggests the market is firming. The Nasdaq also will close below the year's start if the forecast is correct.
This chart is similar to the prior one. It shows weakness going into October and then a rebound which will leave the index below it's start.
This is the chart I like to see. Point A marks the forecast low for the year (red line). So far, the forecasted bottom was only off by a month (monthly scale).
Today's close was about 11,800 but in 9 year's time, the forecast predicts a close of 48,300. You can quadruple your money during that span if you buy the QQQs (an exchange traded fund)...if the forecast is accurate. It's a nice scenario...
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