As of 12/27/2024   Indus: 42,992 -333.59 -0.8%     Trans: 16,031 -73.46 -0.5%     Utils: 987 -4.51 -0.5%     Nasdaq: 19,722 -298.33 -1.5%     S&P 500: 5,971 -66.75 -1.1%	YTD  +14.1%    +0.8%    +12.0%    +31.4%    +25.2%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/27/24

As of 12/27/2024   Indus: 42,992 -333.59 -0.8%     Trans: 16,031 -73.46 -0.5%     Utils: 987 -4.51 -0.5%     Nasdaq: 19,722 -298.33 -1.5%     S&P 500: 5,971 -66.75 -1.1%	YTD  +14.1%    +0.8%    +12.0%    +31.4%    +25.2%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/27/24

Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast September Update

Released 8/31/2020.

Forecast Updated for September 2020

Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of August 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

1 / 4

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The vertical red line on the far right of the chart says that the indicator is bearish and it's been bearish for a while now. Even so, the market has continued to climb, which is a sign of bearish divergence. Not good...

The next chart looks at the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials.

2 / 4

Because of the steep drop in the Dow, the forecast looks flat (the large swing compressed the scale. See the entire forecast here, without compression).

The market has caught up to the forecast and surpassed it by a small amount. If it now follows the forecast, it should be flat for the rest of the year. Notice the slight dip in early October.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.

3 / 4

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The market blew through the forecast and kept climbing. The forecast has the market declining going into year end but we don't see that from the market's trend.

Notice that I circled the forecast and drew a vertical blue line directly above. It suggests the market will peak soon and then start to decline.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).

4 / 4

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

It should go flat until year end. This chart also shows a peak later this month but not much of a reaction until October.

The end.

❮ ❯

See Also

• Market Forecast for 2020 and beyond
• Slider tutorials
• Chart pattern slider quizzes
• Other quizzes (trading)
• 158 Additional quizzes (downloads)