As of 10/04/2024
Indus: 42,353 +341.16 +0.8%
Trans: 15,814 +68.72 +0.4%
Utils: 1,051 -6.68 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 18,138 +219.37 +1.2%
S&P 500: 5,751 +51.13 +0.9%
|
YTD
+12.4%
-0.5%
+19.3%
+20.8%
+20.6%
|
 43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/202416,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/20241,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/202419,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/20245,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024 |
As of 10/04/2024
Indus: 42,353 +341.16 +0.8%
Trans: 15,814 +68.72 +0.4%
Utils: 1,051 -6.68 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 18,138 +219.37 +1.2%
S&P 500: 5,751 +51.13 +0.9%
|
YTD
+12.4%
-0.5%
+19.3%
+20.8%
+20.6%
| |
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/202416,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/20241,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/202419,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/20245,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on October 1, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI has a neutral reading of 52, as the chart shows. Notice that the thin blue indicator line is falling.
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
The actual performance of the Dow is well above the forecast. The vertical green line shows the timing of weakness going into mid October. The index is forecast to close 6% higher, which is half what it has posted to year-to-date.
This is the Nasdaq.
The gain YTD is 19% or more than double the year-end forecast. We may be entering a period of weakness for the next two weeks.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
This looks the same as prior charts. Notice that the trend after mid October is up.
Here's the updated Dow transports 10-year forecast.
It's rare that I mention the transports. The vertical green lines show important turning points. The transports are up 1% year-to-date versus a projected doubling of them (111%) in 10 years.
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