As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024
As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024

Bulkowski's October 2022 Forecast Update

Released 10/4/2022.

Forecast Updated for October 2022

Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on October 4. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI turned bullish yesterday (Monday) as the vertical green bar shows on the far right of the chart. The vertical bars obscure the CPI line. That's unfortunate because I wanted to get a reading to see how high the line has moved. A check of this website says it's at 100%, the max.

What this means is that the CPI will either go sideways or down. I think it'll keep high for another two days and then drop when the index reaches 180 on the right scale.

The next chart looks at the 2022 forecast update for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The 2022 forecast is in red, taken back in January.

At A, the forecast reached its low even though the index bottomed out at B, just 3 trading days ago.

The next minor low is the vertical blue line. If the index performs like the forecast, we should have an upward trending market to year's end (C, green line).

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart. It's similar to the prior chart. Point A is the next pivot. B, with the green line, shows a potential double bottom chart pattern. However, that will only come true if the index closes above peak C, which is the highest peak between the two bottoms at B. Notice that point D is higher than we are today. The forecast says to expect a rising market to year's end.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale. Again, A is the next minor low. B shows a rising market forecast to year's end. It's possible that turn A (in the forecast) happened 3 trading days ago and it's off to the races now.

If that's true then we can see the market slide lower for about a month. It suggests it's a good time to do some tax loss selling. Buy back in just over a month from now. I wish I could say that will happen, though. I have my doubts.

Next 2026 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

This is the forecast out to 2026, using the weekly scale. I show trend A highlighted by the blue line. Yum!

Of course, the forecast has to be correct and so far, it's been off some. The forecast shows the bottom in July when it happened in late September (so far). If the forecast is correct, look for the index to rise about 50% to 2026.

The end.

See Also

 
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