As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast October Update

Released 9/30/2021.

Forecast Updated for October 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Thursday September 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI signaled a downturn and down the markets went. It was September, the weakest month of the year (historically), so I've been expecting weakness and blogged about it several times.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.

I drew two vertical blue lines (which may look black), marking the market's high point and current value in relation to the prediction.

The forecast said weakness would start in mid May but which actually happened in mid August. The prediction also said the markets would bottom about a week ago and if the market continues to make a higher low, then the prediction was off by less than a week (which is terrific forecasting, see yellow line versus the red line's dip).

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq. Similar to the last chart, it shows the market peaking in September but predicted to peak in February. The current low is later than the forecast by a week.

The forecast is for strength in the markets going forward to the end of the year.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

This chart highlights the market peak and recent low compared to the forecast. Notice the upward trend going into year end.

One more: 10 year chart.
5 / 5
Dow industrials chart

Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.

The forecast shows the Dow bottoming in September and rising until late summer or early fall of 2022. After that, we go on a nice upward trend until 2028 when it gets bumpy.

The end.

See Also

 
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