Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast October Update

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI signaled a downturn and down the markets went. It was September, the weakest month of the year (historically), so I've been expecting weakness and blogged about it several times.

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.

I drew two vertical blue lines (which may look black), marking the market's high point and current value in relation to the prediction.

The forecast said weakness would start in mid May but which actually happened in mid August. The prediction also said the markets would bottom about a week ago and if the market continues to make a higher low, then the prediction was off by less than a week (which is terrific forecasting, see yellow line versus the red line's dip).

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq. Similar to the last chart, it shows the market peaking in September but predicted to peak in February. The current low is later than the forecast by a week.

The forecast is for strength in the markets going forward to the end of the year.

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

This chart highlights the market peak and recent low compared to the forecast. Notice the upward trend going into year end.

Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.

The forecast shows the Dow bottoming in September and rising until late summer or early fall of 2022. After that, we go on a nice upward trend until 2028 when it gets bumpy.