As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 10/29/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday October 29. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The indicator turned bullish in early October but has faded since then. It's signaling a word of caution that the upward move is overdone and subject to a retrace (meaning the thin blue indicator line, near the bottom of the chart, is dropping).
This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.
The Dow industrials was forecast to reach its low in late September but that didn't happen. However, the minor low was just a few days off, as shown by the vertical blue line. From mid April to the September low, the industrials moved sideways to slightly up but the forecast predicted a big decline which didn't happen.
The Nasdaq climbed even as the forecast predicted a decline. The blue line is the forecast low and the yellow line is the actual low for September. If the prediction is correct to the end of the year, expect a modest rise.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
This chart is similar to the other charts with the forecast of a yearly low occurring in September which didn't happen. From here, the forecast suggests a continued rise.
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