As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
|
As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
| |
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
| ||
This article discusses tips on learning to trade the stock market by building a trading plan. Thanks to Vicky Wong for her help with the article.
Initial release: 10/17/2017
One of the questions I'm asked frequently, is "Will you be my mentor?" I decided to write this article so I can steer those requests to this page. If you follow the tips in this article, you can learn to trade and maybe, just maybe, you can make money trading as well.
That's not a guarantee of success, mind you, but at least you'll understand the basics.
What we want to do is build a trading plan for each trade. Why? Because as discretionary traders (those not using an automated buy/sell system) the closer we can get to a mechanical system, the better our trading performance.
Think of it as a blueprint. If you follow the blueprint, you'll have a better chance of success. You'll know what to do when the unexpected happens because you're prepared for it.
Here are a series of questions you should know the answer to. If the questions/answers won't change even as the trade does, then there's no reason to include it in your trading plan. Questions specific to a trade should go in the plan.
What I do is count the number of stocks in the industry moving higher versus those moving lower. As a gauge, I use 1, 2, and 6 months as the basis for comparison (that is, is the stock higher than it was 2 months ago? That kind of thing).
For position size, I follow a formula I developed. It uses the market and stock volatility and it's beyond the scope of this article. You can find the formula on page 14 of my book, Trading Basics pictured on the right.
Let's look at an example to see how the trading process unfolds with the building of a trading plan.
Look at the above chart of Aerojet. I found the Eve & Eve double bottom on the daily chart, but will flip to a longer-term chart to check the trend.
This chart is on the weekly scale. AB shows the double bottom, unconfirmed at this point. That means price hasn't closed above the peak between the two bottoms yet.
I drew horizontal red lines to show where overhead resistance might block or hinder an upward move. Peak C is at about 23.50. D is at 24.35. So those are areas where price might reverse.
Let's look at the daily chart, shown above.
AB is the double bottom. C is the confirmation point. A close above C means it's a valid chart pattern.
D is a broadening top chart pattern. It's a top because price trends upward into the pattern. That's clear on the weekly chart (the prior chart).
I extended the top of the pattern, E, because it might become a resistance area as price climbs to meet it.
How would I build a trading plan from this? Let's begin by filling in information from a template
Date: 7/13/2017Security type: StockName/symbol: Aerojet (AJRD)Trade style: Eve & Eve double bottom chart pattern, swing trade using end-of-day dataMax position size: $31,000 (found automatically). 1,400 shares @ 22.52 (breakout+.01)=$31,528.Thinly traded? No (841k avg vol according to yahoo).Volatility stop: $21.17 or 4.3% (found automatically). Stop used: below lower of two bottoms, $19.95, just below support at 20 (round number). Potential loss 11%. Ouch.Trailing stop? No, but I might manually raise the stop as price rises.Measure rule target: 22.51 + (22.51 - 20.06) = ~25.00. That's the pattern's height added to the breakout priceScaling in? No.Scaling out? Sell 500 shares at $23.79. That's where trendline E is on the above chart, on 7/13. Sell 500 at 25, the measure rule target. Sell the remaining 400 at 28.75 which is the median rise (27.79%) for double bottoms with scores above 0 (see my book, "Trading Classic Chart Patterns"). As one order fills, place the next sell order.Resistance levels: Once it clears 24.35, it's making new highs.Support levels: 20, 18Score: -1 (Patternz using manual score)."After the buy" setup: Figures 5.5 and 5.8 apply. Both suggest a sustained upward move.Trend start: 4/26/2017 (found using Patternz), the nearby peak, so the inbound trend is short.Busted chart pattern? No. If it busts, I'll be stopped out.Leverage? NoneEntry conditions: Place a buy stop at 22.52, a penny above the pattern's high.How long to wait for it to make a move? If the stock hasn't made a move upward in a month, then I'll consider selling.Exit conditions: See above scaling out targetsNext earnings: 8/3/17, or 3 weeks away. Yuck.Weekly scale (a scale longer than the usual trade): The stock is near new highs, trending upward.Reversal or continuation? ReversalRelative strength (Patternz option): 3 green bars: week, month, 3 months, all of which is good.1, 2, 6 month S&P trend: Up, up, up. (found automatically)What are the market conditions Long term up trend, with inverted and ascending scallops predominating.Industry trend: 1 month: 10 stocks up, 1 down. 2 mos: 10 up, 1 down. 6 mos: 8 up, 3 down (found automatically)Comments: I'm worried about the stock stalling out at the old high of 24.35. Earnings are just 3 weeks away, so that's a concern. This could dead-cat bounce, but my guess is it won't. The price action over time (see above Relative strength and Industry trends) supports a continued move higher. Once it breaks out to a new high, most overhead resistance disappears.
Price hit the buy target the day after it was placed, filling at 22.52 (the buy stop price). A stop loss was entered (see Initial Stop on the chart), priced at 19.95, below A, the lower of the two bottoms and below support at 20.
The stock did not throw back, increasing the score of the pattern to +1. That suggested the trade has a decent shot of hitting the median rise for scores above 0 (meaning a climb to 28.75 looked favorable but not guaranteed).
The stock hit the first target of 500 shares @ 23.79 on 7/25, at the day's open, filling at 23.85. A new target to sell at 25 was placed.
The stock stalled near the 2015 high of 24.35, just as predicted. This formed a small knot of congestion that the stock had to push through (below C).
When earnings came out, the stock gapped up higher on the news, filling the second target (500 shares at 25.00) order, filled at 26.66 on 8/4/17. That's a gift. A new sell order for the remaining 400 shares @ $28.75 was entered.
As the stock moved sideways, it formed an ascending triangle (shown at D, in cyan or whatever color you call it). I placed a stop loss order at 25.80, a penny below the bottom of this pattern. Why?
I know that a week to 10 days after a good earnings announcement, some stocks will start retracing, giving back their gains. That didn't happen in this case, but I didn't want to sacrifice too much profit if it retraced.
Due to the appearance of the ascending triangle with an upward breakout, I moved the target sell order of 400 shares (not the stop loss order) upward from 28.75 to the measure rule prediction for the ascending triangle. The height of the triangle was 27.95 - 25.81 or 2.14 for a target of 30.09. I set the sell target to 29.93, just below round number 30.
The last sell order for 400 shares filled on 9/1/17 at 29.93.
I consider this trade to be risky, given the close proximity of the earnings release. The stock could have tumbled just as easily as climbed. But it worked out well. I didn't expect an ascending triangle to appear, so my trading plan needs to be adjusted to handle additional buy signals.
To make a trading plan meaningful, you need to be able to track your performance. I suggest building a spreadsheet (xlsx, 14.5kb, a portion is shown above) to track details of your trade. That way, you can sort by those details and determine which setup is most profitable.
For example, do trades made on Monday perform better than on other days (best for day traders)? Which works best, day trading during the morning hours, lunch hour (east coast time, that is), or during the afternoon session?
Here are some questions you can ask your spreadsheet:
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