As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 4/28/2023.
Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on April 28, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
It shows a bullish vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. That signal comes after two days of higher closing prices.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
The Dow has under performed the forecast shown as a red line. However, so far, it has tracked (loosely) the forecast.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
The index has shown its strength almost from the January start. It's well above the forecast. If it continues, it'll end the year with a tasty gain.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
The S&P has also outperformed the index, but to a smaller extent than the Nasdaq. If it follows the predicted uptrend, it'll close the year higher than where it started.
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