As of 12/26/2024
Indus: 43,326 +28.77 +0.1%
Trans: 16,104 +40.79 +0.3%
Utils: 992 -1.47 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 20,020 -10.77 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,038 -2.45 0.0%
|
YTD
+15.0%
+1.3%
+12.5%
+33.4%
+26.6%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/26/2024
Indus: 43,326 +28.77 +0.1%
Trans: 16,104 +40.79 +0.3%
Utils: 992 -1.47 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 20,020 -10.77 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,038 -2.45 0.0%
|
YTD
+15.0%
+1.3%
+12.5%
+33.4%
+26.6%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Released 5/31/2023.
Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on May 31, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI is bearish even though the index has climbed. The direction of this will depend on how the debt ceiling talks proceed.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
The Dow industrials, as the chart shows, is under performing the forecast. It's early, though, and there's time for the index to rally. I think when the FED stops raising interest rates, we'll see the Dow respond.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
The Dow is under performing and this chart shows the Nasdaq over performing the forecast. The forecast is trending higher following a slope similar to the Nasdaq
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
This is like the little red riding hood story. The Dow was too cold. The Nasdaq was too hot. And the S&P is just right. The index is tracking the forecast with nice accuracy. It shows the index closing the year higher than where it began.
Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to
Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
|
My Stock Market Books
|
My Novels
|
on