As of 07/23/2025
Indus: 45,010 +507.85 +1.1%
Trans: 16,268 +157.05 +1.0%
Utils: 1,086 -3.08 -0.3%
Nasdaq: 21,020 +127.33 +0.6%
S&P 500: 6,359 +49.29 +0.8%
|
YTD
+5.8%
+2.3%
+10.5%
+8.9%
+8.1%
|
 45,300 or 43,000 by 08/01/202517,400 or 15,000 by 08/01/20251,140 or 1,025 by 08/01/202521,300 or 19,600 by 08/01/20256,425 or 6,000 by 08/01/2025 |
As of 07/23/2025
Indus: 45,010 +507.85 +1.1%
Trans: 16,268 +157.05 +1.0%
Utils: 1,086 -3.08 -0.3%
Nasdaq: 21,020 +127.33 +0.6%
S&P 500: 6,359 +49.29 +0.8%
|
YTD
+5.8%
+2.3%
+10.5%
+8.9%
+8.1%
| |
|
45,300 or 43,000 by 08/01/202517,400 or 15,000 by 08/01/20251,140 or 1,025 by 08/01/202521,300 or 19,600 by 08/01/20256,425 or 6,000 by 08/01/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on June 30, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI has a reading of 77.8, which is bullish. The green vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows this. It turned bullish about a week ago, suggesting the uptrend will continue.
The forecast gain for the year is 4%, which is what the index has gained as I write this. If the forecast is correct, we should reach a peak this month and drop going into late August.
Look for weakness in tech stocks (the Nasdaq) going into late August, again in late September, followed by a recovery thereafter.
Look for more weakness in August and September followed by a recovery to early December when the forecast goes flat.
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