As of 01/29/2025
Indus: 44,714 -136.83 -0.3%
Trans: 16,658 -36.17 -0.2%
Utils: 982 -1.68 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 19,632 -101.27 -0.5%
S&P 500: 6,039 -28.39 -0.5%
|
YTD
+5.1%
+4.8%
0.0%
+1.7%
+2.7%
|
 44,000 or 45,250 by 02/15/2025 17,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/20251,050 or 950 by 02/01/202520,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/20256,200 or 5,900 by 02/01/2025 |
As of 01/29/2025
Indus: 44,714 -136.83 -0.3%
Trans: 16,658 -36.17 -0.2%
Utils: 982 -1.68 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 19,632 -101.27 -0.5%
S&P 500: 6,039 -28.39 -0.5%
|
YTD
+5.1%
+4.8%
0.0%
+1.7%
+2.7%
| |
|
44,000 or 45,250 by 02/15/202517,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/20251,050 or 950 by 02/01/202520,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/20256,200 or 5,900 by 02/01/2025 | ||
Released 7/1/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on Thursday June 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
As of 6/30/22, the index has slipped into neutral territory as the white bars on the far right of the chart shows. On this chart, the index peaked in January 2022 and has slid from there, forcing some indices (Dow transports, Nasdaq, S&P 500) into bear market territory. What's a bear market? A 20% drop from a high. A bull market is a 20% rise off a bottom.
The industrials have dropped all year, from B to D. The forecast made on the last day of December 2021, showed the index peaking in March (A) and sliding to late July (C) to finish the year lower than where it began.
This chart is similar to the Dow industrials. We see a relative peak at C, which corresponds to the forecast peak shown in red. Valley A in the forecast matches a predicted bottom in late July. The forecast shows the Nasdaq (D) ending the year below where it began.
This is a chart of the S&P 500 index. The forecast low is at A, in late July, the same as the other charts. Line B shows that the index closes the year below where it began.
If you have any feeling of selling everything now, you'd better take a close look at this chart. Of course, these forecasts are rarely accurate but this one says that the markets will find a bottom this month (A).
Then look at the move to B. The strong upward move lasts until March 2024 before sliding down to C in May. From there, the uptrend resumes to peak in July 2025 (D), moving sideways to down until weakness in September (E) before another uptrend. IF, and that's a big if, the markets do bottom in three weeks, then buying-and-holding for the next 3 years can make for a tasty wallet- or purse-fattening reward.
Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to
Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
|
My Stock Market Books
|
My Novels
|
on