As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
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YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
|
YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 6/30/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Wednesday June 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
I discussed this chart yesterday (blog post for 30 June) so not much has changed. The CPI moved up today, helped along by the general market moving up. The chart remains bullish after climbing out of the neutral zone, where it was yesterday.
This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.
The curves are similar in shape except the Dow is outperforming the prediction. If the forecast is correct, look for the indices to peak in mid to late July and the head lower going into the fall.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.
The index touched the prediction at A and has soared in a straight-line run higher even as the prediction tumbled.
If the prediction is correct from here on out, then look for the index to turn down shortly (within days), heading to the September/October lows.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
The index continued to rise even as the prediction turned down. The prediction says the index will decline from here until late September.
Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.
At A, the index peaked but it appears to be rising even as the prediction shows it moving lower. It suggests weakness, bottoming in September or October of this year recovering until early 2022 and dropping until the summer. After that, the industrials should rise until 2028. Wouldn't that be nice?
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