As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast July Update

Released 6/30/2021.

Forecast Updated for July 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Wednesday June 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

I discussed this chart yesterday (blog post for 30 June) so not much has changed. The CPI moved up today, helped along by the general market moving up. The chart remains bullish after climbing out of the neutral zone, where it was yesterday.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.

The curves are similar in shape except the Dow is outperforming the prediction. If the forecast is correct, look for the indices to peak in mid to late July and the head lower going into the fall.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The index touched the prediction at A and has soared in a straight-line run higher even as the prediction tumbled.

If the prediction is correct from here on out, then look for the index to turn down shortly (within days), heading to the September/October lows.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

The index continued to rise even as the prediction turned down. The prediction says the index will decline from here until late September.

One more: 10 year chart.
5 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years, shown on the monthly scale.

At A, the index peaked but it appears to be rising even as the prediction shows it moving lower. It suggests weakness, bottoming in September or October of this year recovering until early 2022 and dropping until the summer. After that, the industrials should rise until 2028. Wouldn't that be nice?

The end.

See Also

 
Top of page
 

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notices: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases." Paid links).

My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

Copyright © 2005-2022 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer