As of 01/17/2025
Indus: 43,488 +334.70 +0.8%
Trans: 16,431 -169.75 -1.0%
Utils: 1,013 +1.53 +0.2%
Nasdaq: 19,630 +291.91 +1.5%
S&P 500: 5,997 +59.32 +1.0%
|
YTD
+2.2%
+3.4%
+3.0%
+1.7%
+2.0%
|
 44,700 or 41,600 by 02/01/202517,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/20251,050 or 950 by 02/01/202520,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/20256,100 or 5,700 by 02/01/2025 |
As of 01/17/2025
Indus: 43,488 +334.70 +0.8%
Trans: 16,431 -169.75 -1.0%
Utils: 1,013 +1.53 +0.2%
Nasdaq: 19,630 +291.91 +1.5%
S&P 500: 5,997 +59.32 +1.0%
|
YTD
+2.2%
+3.4%
+3.0%
+1.7%
+2.0%
| |
|
44,700 or 41,600 by 02/01/202517,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/20251,050 or 950 by 02/01/202520,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/20256,100 or 5,700 by 02/01/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on December 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
In the box on the upper left is a review of the market performance for 2024. The numbers reflect price changes only and exclude dividends.
I did an Internet search and found these values for the indices with dividends included: Nasdaq composite: 29.57%, S&P 500 index; 25.02%, and Dow industrials: 14.99%.
How do your portfolio or trading results compare with your favorite index? If you underperformed the indices by a lot, then consider investing instead of trading (for at least a part of your portfolio). ETFs will underperform their benchmark because they have to pay expenses of running the fund.
I show the year-to-date results of the indices I follow. In first place was the Nasdaq followed by S&P, Dow industrials, Dow utilities, and Dow transports.
The chart shows the Nasdaq which is projected to rise 9% this year. If the forecast is correct, mid July should see a peak in the index, followed by weakness going into late August, and additional weakness ending late September.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The indicator is neutral (white vertical bar). You can see that with the white bar on the far right of the chart.
This is what happened to the Dow industrials in 2024 compared to the forecast made in January for the year. As you can see the index climbed away from the forecast to end the year 13% higher.
This is the Nasdaq. It climbed 29% higher, doing much better than the forecast 8%.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024. The S&P 500 was also supposed to climb by 8% but actually posted a 23% gain.
Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to
Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
|
My Stock Market Books
|
My Novels
|
on