As of 02/25/2026
Indus: 49,482 +307.65 +0.6%
Trans: 19,320 -124.84 -0.6%
Utils: 1,181 +2.88 +0.2%
Nasdaq: 23,152 +288.40 +1.3%
S&P 500: 6,946 +56.06 +0.8%
|
YTD
+3.0%
+11.3%
+10.6%
-0.4%
+1.5%
|
 50,500 or 48,300 by 03/01/202620,200 or 18,150 by 03/01/20261,250 or 1,125 by 03/01/202624,750 or 22,000 by 03/01/20267,250 or 6,600 by 03/01/2026 |
As of 02/25/2026
Indus: 49,482 +307.65 +0.6%
Trans: 19,320 -124.84 -0.6%
Utils: 1,181 +2.88 +0.2%
Nasdaq: 23,152 +288.40 +1.3%
S&P 500: 6,946 +56.06 +0.8%
|
YTD
+3.0%
+11.3%
+10.6%
-0.4%
+1.5%
| |
|
50,500 or 48,300 by 03/01/202620,200 or 18,150 by 03/01/20261,250 or 1,125 by 03/01/202624,750 or 22,000 by 03/01/20267,250 or 6,600 by 03/01/2026 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2026 as of the close on February 4, 2026. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
Today, the Dow industrials was up 260 points (+0.5%) and the Nasdaq was down 350 points (-1.5%). This chart shows the S&P 500 index. The CPI was neutral yesterday but flipped to bullish despite the index dropping. Go figure.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale for 2026.
The green line shows the slop of the forecast as it trends lower going into mid month. Will the Dow industrials follow? So far, the answer is no (Dow is moving up).
Here's the Nasdaq forecast.
The line at A is almost a perfect match with the peak on the forecast line (off by a day or two). B forecasts the Nasdaq to hit bottom in a few days before rebounding to close the year higher by 10%.
This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale along with the 2026 forecast.
Point A in the forecast matched the low exactly. At B, the peak was off by 2 days. Look for weakness going into the next week or two.
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