As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
My book,
Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts
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The evening doji star is one of the better performing candlestick patterns. It has a high reversal rate, ranking 12th, and the performance over time is respectable, too, but not outstanding. A check of the numbers shows that downward breakouts are weakest, and upward ones are strongest with the bear market/up breakout configuration doing the best of the bunch. The trouble with this pattern is its rarity, ranking 81st out of 103 candles where 1 is voted most popular. Few samples are probably why this candlestick does so well.
Let's take a closer look at this candle pattern.
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Theoretical performance: Bearish reversal
Tested performance: Bearish reversal 71% of the time
Frequency rank: 81
Overall performance rank: 30
Best percentage meeting price target: 57% (bear market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: 6.20% (bear market, up breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 15 (bull market, up breakout)
All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts. The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions. |
 Evening Doji Star
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Candle theory says that the evening doji star pattern should act as a bearish reversal of the upward price trend, and testing reveals that it does 71% of the time. That gives the candle a rank of 12th, which is quite high. However, with a frequency rank of 81st, you might not find this candle. The overall performance rank is 30th, so it could be a better performer over time, but actually does quite well -- thank you very much.
The best average move 10 days after the breakout is a rise of 6.2%, but just 28 patterns account for the percentage. Thus, the results are likely to change. The best performance rank over 10 days comes after an upward breakout in a bull market. The rank is 15th, which is quite high, and 199 samples are used, so the rank is realistic, too.
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| Number of candle lines | Three. |
| Price trend leading to the pattern | Upward. |
| Configuration | Look for a tall white candle in an upward price trend followed by a doji whose body gaps above the two surrounding days. Ignore the shadows. The last day is a tall black candle that closes at or below the mid point of the first day. |
If you want a few bones from my Encyclopedia of candlestick charts book, here are three to chew on. The pages refer to the book where the tips appear.
The evening doji star appears circled in red on the daily scale. Price moves up to a tall white candle. The next day, a doji forms whose body floats above the bodies of the surrounding two candles. The next day, a black candle takes price below the mid point of the body of the first candle in the pattern, completing the evening doji star.
This evening doji star acts as a bearish reversal of the upward price trend because price rises into the pattern and breaks out downward. A downward breakout occurs when price closes below the bottom of the candlestick pattern.
Since price in the last candle is already near the low, a downward breakout is expected -- not guaranteed, just expected. A check of the numbers shows that it breaks out downward 71% of the time.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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