As of 08/08/2025
Indus: 44,176 +206.97 +0.5%
Trans: 15,340 -63.00 -0.4%
Utils: 1,113 -4.72 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 21,450 +207.32 +1.0%
S&P 500: 6,389 +49.45 +0.8%
|
YTD
+3.8%
-3.5%
+13.3%
+11.1%
+8.6%
|
 45,300 or 43,200 by 08/15/202516,300 or 14,800 by 08/15/20251,150 or 1,050 by 08/15/202521,700 or 20,500 by 08/15/20256,500 or 6,200 by 08/15/2025 |
As of 08/08/2025
Indus: 44,176 +206.97 +0.5%
Trans: 15,340 -63.00 -0.4%
Utils: 1,113 -4.72 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 21,450 +207.32 +1.0%
S&P 500: 6,389 +49.45 +0.8%
|
YTD
+3.8%
-3.5%
+13.3%
+11.1%
+8.6%
| |
|
45,300 or 43,200 by 08/15/202516,300 or 14,800 by 08/15/20251,150 or 1,050 by 08/15/202521,700 or 20,500 by 08/15/20256,500 or 6,200 by 08/15/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on July 31, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
I reviewed the CPI chart Wednesday so not much has changed. However, the CPI dropped from 61.2 (Wednesday) to 26.7 today, moving the CPI from neutral to bearish. The tall red bar on the far right of the chart shows the signal change.
If the prediction is correct, the Dow has met the target of a 4% rise this year. Notice how the index is forecast to drop to the late August low before rebounding to year end.
This is the Nasdaq composite. The actual gain year-to-date is 9%, matching the forecast gain for the year. The index matches the forecast (circled green) today, too.
The S&P 500 index is ahead of the forecast by gaining 8% compared to a year-end-close of 6% higher. Notice weakness going into late August followed by a slow recovery.
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