As of 03/17/2026
Indus: 46,993 +46.85 +0.1%
Trans: 18,052 +198.07 +1.1%
Utils: 1,184 -2.83 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 22,480 +105.35 +0.5%
S&P 500: 6,716 +16.71 +0.2%
|
YTD
-2.2%
+4.0%
+10.9%
-3.3%
-1.9%
|
 45,500 or 48,800 by 04/01/202617,100 or 19,100 by 04/01/2026 1,300 or 1,140 by 04/01/202621,200 or 23,700 by 04/01/20266,500 or 6,900 by 04/01/2026 |
As of 03/17/2026
Indus: 46,993 +46.85 +0.1%
Trans: 18,052 +198.07 +1.1%
Utils: 1,184 -2.83 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 22,480 +105.35 +0.5%
S&P 500: 6,716 +16.71 +0.2%
|
YTD
-2.2%
+4.0%
+10.9%
-3.3%
-1.9%
| |
|
45,500 or 48,800 by 04/01/202617,100 or 19,100 by 04/01/20261,300 or 1,140 by 04/01/202621,200 or 23,700 by 04/01/20266,500 or 6,900 by 04/01/2026 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on July 31, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
I reviewed the CPI chart Wednesday so not much has changed. However, the CPI dropped from 61.2 (Wednesday) to 26.7 today, moving the CPI from neutral to bearish. The tall red bar on the far right of the chart shows the signal change.
If the prediction is correct, the Dow has met the target of a 4% rise this year. Notice how the index is forecast to drop to the late August low before rebounding to year end.
This is the Nasdaq composite. The actual gain year-to-date is 9%, matching the forecast gain for the year. The index matches the forecast (circled green) today, too.
The S&P 500 index is ahead of the forecast by gaining 8% compared to a year-end-close of 6% higher. Notice weakness going into late August followed by a slow recovery.
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