As of 12/02/2024
  Indus: 44,782 -128.65 -0.3%  
  Trans: 17,545 -73.73 -0.4%  
  Utils: 1,057 -21.90 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 19,404 +185.78 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,047 +14.77 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.8%  
 +10.4%  
 +19.9%  
 +29.3%  
 +26.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024
As of 12/02/2024
  Indus: 44,782 -128.65 -0.3%  
  Trans: 17,545 -73.73 -0.4%  
  Utils: 1,057 -21.90 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 19,404 +185.78 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,047 +14.77 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.8%  
 +10.4%  
 +19.9%  
 +29.3%  
 +26.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024

Bulkowski's 2024 Forecast Update

Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on July 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The chart shows the indicator is near the top of the 0 to 100 scale, peaking at 89.7 today. That's bullish as the vertical green bar shows. Because the signal is several days old, it's unlikely to change (which it can do for up to a week but is usually stable after 3 days).

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.

The forecast is bumpy but moves almost horizontally with a slight uphill turn starting in mid October.

The Dow, in comparison, has been trending higher for the year. Clearly, the forecast is too conservative this year.

The next chart looks at the Nasdaq forecast.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq.

We see the same flat to up trend in the forecast. The green vertical bar shows where the forecast peaked recently in relation to the actual peak. It gave about a 10-day warning of a downturn.

The S&P 500 forecast for 2024 is next.
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024

The forecast shows an upward trend for the year. The actual index also shows an uptrend but the slope is much higher.

10-year forecast next.
5 / 5
10-year forecast in nasdaq

Here's the updated Dow 10-year forecast.

The Dow is forecast to about double over the next 10 years.

The end.

See Also

 
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