As of 09/18/2024
Indus: 41,503 -103.08 -0.2%
Trans: 16,071 +57.68 +0.4%
Utils: 1,050 -9.27 -0.9%
Nasdaq: 17,573 -54.76 -0.3%
S&P 500: 5,618 -16.32 -0.3%
|
YTD
+10.1%
+1.1%
+19.1%
+17.1%
+17.8%
|
 42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/202416,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024 |
As of 09/18/2024
Indus: 41,503 -103.08 -0.2%
Trans: 16,071 +57.68 +0.4%
Utils: 1,050 -9.27 -0.9%
Nasdaq: 17,573 -54.76 -0.3%
S&P 500: 5,618 -16.32 -0.3%
|
YTD
+10.1%
+1.1%
+19.1%
+17.1%
+17.8%
| |
|
42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/202416,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on July 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The chart shows the indicator is near the top of the 0 to 100 scale, peaking at 89.7 today. That's bullish as the vertical green bar shows. Because the signal is several days old, it's unlikely to change (which it can do for up to a week but is usually stable after 3 days).
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
The forecast is bumpy but moves almost horizontally with a slight uphill turn starting in mid October.
The Dow, in comparison, has been trending higher for the year. Clearly, the forecast is too conservative this year.
This is the Nasdaq.
We see the same flat to up trend in the forecast. The green vertical bar shows where the forecast peaked recently in relation to the actual peak. It gave about a 10-day warning of a downturn.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
The forecast shows an upward trend for the year. The actual index also shows an uptrend but the slope is much higher.
Here's the updated Dow 10-year forecast.
The Dow is forecast to about double over the next 10 years.
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