As of 01/16/2026
Indus: 49,359 -83.11 -0.2%
Trans: 18,245 -139.45 -0.8%
Utils: 1,099 -4.15 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 23,515 -14.63 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,940 -4.46 -0.1%
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YTD
+2.7%
+5.1%
+2.9%
+1.2%
+1.4%
|
 50,500 or 48,000 by 02/01/202619,400 or 17,750 by 02/01/20261,140 or 1,075 by 02/01/202624,750 or 22,700 by 02/01/20267,250 or 6,700 by 02/01/2026 |
As of 01/16/2026
Indus: 49,359 -83.11 -0.2%
Trans: 18,245 -139.45 -0.8%
Utils: 1,099 -4.15 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 23,515 -14.63 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,940 -4.46 -0.1%
|
YTD
+2.7%
+5.1%
+2.9%
+1.2%
+1.4%
| |
|
50,500 or 48,000 by 02/01/202619,400 or 17,750 by 02/01/20261,140 or 1,075 by 02/01/202624,750 or 22,700 by 02/01/20267,250 or 6,700 by 02/01/2026 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on March 31, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The most recent signal (today) is bullish (green vertical bar on far right of chart). The CPI is at 78.1 but the stocks I looked at says the market is weaker than the CPI suggests.
The change in the indicator is because of the strong recovery off today's lows. I'm skeptical, especially with more tariffs about to begin.
The index remains close to the forecast but it's been a bumpy ride. The market is slightly below the forecast, however.
Tech stocks are being hit by the political atmosphere in this country. The index remains well below the indicator. If the forecast is correct, the index should close 9% higher. It's currently down 10%, so that would be a big recovery (19 percentage point swing). Later in April (violet line) we should see strength returning to the market until August when we see a tumble.
The forecast says the index should gather strength and move higher until mid August, bottoming later that month. Look for an uphill run to begin in late September or early October if the forecast is correct.
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