As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22

Bulkowski's April 2022 Forecast Update

Released 3/31/2022.

Forecast Updated for April 2022

Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on Thursday March 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The indicator turned bearish today (Thursday) because the Dow industrials dropped 550 points. The indicator says this is a major turn downward, but I'm not so sure that it'll last more than a day or two. I expect a rebound next week.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast update for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

The prediction is in red. Notice that it peaked in mid March and predicts weakness going into July.

Compare that with the index bottoming in February and rising since then.

If you were to flip the red line upside down, it would track the index much better. So I'm looking for a recovery going into July, but due to Putin's war, it's going to be bumpy.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

This chart resembles the prior one. The forecast peaked even as the Nasdaq made a new low. If the forecast is correct, then expect the Nasdaq to finish the year lower than where it began.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Ditto!

Next 2026 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

This is the 4-year forecast starting from January 2022, weekly scale.

The index bottomed as I've already described and has recovered somewhat.

If the forecast from here onward is correct, then expect the markets to rise until at least 2026. That period will be a good time to buy and hold.

The end.

See Also

 
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