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Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
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Bulkowski's Ugly Pattern Performance Study
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Studies Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns		 Candles Chart
Patterns		 Event
Patterns		 Small Patterns
As of 01/24/2020
  Indus: 28,990 -170.36 -0.6%  
  Trans: 11,060 -83.58 -0.8%  
  Utils: 932 +3.37 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 9,315 -87.57 -0.9%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 -30.07 -0.9%  
YTD
 +1.6%  
 +1.5%  
 +6.0%  
 +3.8%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/14/2020  
  Up arrow29,500 or 28,300 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow11,500 or 10,700 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow1,025 or 900 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow9,600 or 8,900 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow3,350 or 3,200 by 02/01/2020
As of 01/24/2020
  Indus: 28,990 -170.36 -0.6%  
  Trans: 11,060 -83.58 -0.8%  
  Utils: 932 +3.37 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 9,315 -87.57 -0.9%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 -30.07 -0.9%  
YTD
 +1.6%  
 +1.5%  
 +6.0%  
 +3.8%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/14/2020  
  Up arrow29,500 or 28,300 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow11,500 or 10,700 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow1,025 or 900 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow9,600 or 8,900 by 02/01/2020
  Up arrow3,350 or 3,200 by 02/01/2020

Written by and copyright © 2005-2020 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Do perfectly shaped chart patterns perform better or worse than ugly ones? In a test of two chart pattern types, the uglier patterns outperformed the well-shaped ones.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Detailed Results

I looked at double bottoms and double tops to determine whether ugly (uneven) tops or bottoms performed better than those with even peaks or valleys. Here's what I found.

Peak to peak price difference =>0-1%1-2%2-3%3-4%4-5%
Double tops15.5% (276)17.3% (320)19.3% (57)21.5% (21)29.9% (17)
Double bottoms31.5% (304)32.0% (378)33.6% (277)33.3% (232)42.8% (73)

Numbers in parentheses are samples used in the test and the percentages are the average move post breakout. Double bottoms have the most samples. When the valleys are within 0 to 1% in price from each other, the rise averages 31.5%. When the valleys are 4 to 5% apart in price, the rise averages 42.8%. Thus, the uglier the chart pattern, the better the performance.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Definitions

I measured the rise or fall from the breakout price to the ultimate high or low. A breakout occurs when price climbs above the highest high between the double bottoms, or below the lowest low between the double tops. The ultimate high is the highest high before price tumbles at least 20%. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price rises at least 20%. In the test, I used 1,275 stocks covering 7/1991 to 3/2006. Not all stocks covered the entire period and only qualifying double tops and bottoms were used. I found 2,239 double top or bottom patterns, but not all of them had usable data (the ultimate high or low wasn't found yet because price hadn't reversed).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2020 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners. Never trim your moustache before applying Chapstick.