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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Height and Width Study

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Busted
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/27/2017
20,981 6.24 0.0%
9,194 26.25 0.3%
708 2.41 0.3%
6,049 23.71 0.4%
2,389 1.32 0.1%
YTD
6.2%
1.7%
7.3%
12.4%
6.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/17/2017
20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
8,500 or 9,500 by 05/01/2017
725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
6,150 or 5,900 by 05/15/2017
2,275 or 2,425 by 05/01/2017
Mutt Winners: None YTD

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

 

In numerous studies I have conducted, one factor stands above all others when trying to gauge the best performance of a chart pattern: Height. Tall chart patterns perform better than short ones. What is meant by tall and what is meant by short? Compute the chart pattern's height from the highest peak to the lowest valley. Divide the result by the breakout price and then compare it to the median height shown in the following table. If your number is greater than the median then you have a tall pattern. If your number is less than the median then your chart pattern is short.

A similar situation applies to width. Unfortunately, width is a poor indicator of performance because some wide chart patterns perform better and some don't. Measure the length of the chart pattern from its start to its end and compare it to the median width listed in the following table. Wide chart patterns have widths greater than the median. Narrow chart patterns have widths less than the median.

Where does a chart pattern start and end? Use the first peak or valley and the last peak or valley in the chart pattern as the start and end points. A head-and-shoulders top, for example, begins with the highest peak in the left shoulder and ends with the highest peak in the right shoulder.

The “Works Best” column in the following table tells whether tall or short works best for height and narrow or wide works best for width.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Height and Width Study: Bull Markets Only

Bull Market Chart PatternMedian
Height (%)
Works
Best
Median
Width (days)
Works
Best
Broadening Bottoms, down breakout17.50Tall49Tie
Broadening Bottoms, up breakout15.13Tall45Narrow
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, down breakout14.70Tall64Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, up breakout13.24Tall59Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, down breakout14.20Tall55Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, up breakout13.13Tall63Tie
Broadening Tops, down breakout15.95Tall49Tie
Broadening Tops, up breakout14.66Tall52Wide
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, down breakout23.31Tall83Narrow
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, up breakout18.60Tall66Wide
Broadening Wedges, Descending, down breakout22.40Tall55Narrow
Broadening Wedges, Descending, up breakout21.77Tall52Narrow
Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms, up breakout35.87Tall120Wide
Bump-and-run Reversal Tops, down breakout43.48Tall161Narrow
Cup-with-Handle, up breakout27.41Tall155Narrow
Cup-with-Handle, Inverted, down breakout31.93Tall107Narrow
Diamond Bottoms, down breakout13.42Tall27Narrow
Diamond Bottoms, up breakout13.19Tall27Wide
Diamond Tops, down breakout10.70Tall36Narrow
Diamond Tops, up breakout12.43Tie37Narrow
Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam, up breakout17.54Tall37Tie
Double Bottoms, Adam & Eve, up breakout17.28Tall50Narrow
Double Bottoms, Eve & Adam, up breakout18.03Short50Narrow
Double Bottoms, Eve & Eve, up breakout16.40Short50Narrow
Double Tops, Adam & Adam, down breakout17.12Tall35Narrow
Double Tops, Adam & Eve, down breakout17.02Tall39Narrow
Double Tops, Eve & Adam, down breakout15.82Tall40Narrow
Double Tops, Eve & Eve, down breakout17.13Tall43Narrow
Flags, down breakout5.38Tall9Narrow
Flags, up breakout 6.68Tall8Wide
Flags, High and Tight, up breakout20.91Short65Narrow
GapsN/AN/AN/AN/A
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, up breakout18.81Tall55Narrow
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex, up breakout 17.70Tie90Wide
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, down breakout17.27Tall49Narrow
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Complex, down breakout19.49Tall73Narrow
Horn Bottoms, up breakout11.33TallN/AN/A
Horn Tops, down breakout10.87TallN/AN/A
Islands Reversals, down breakout8.96Tall18Wide
Islands Reversals, up breakout8.82Tall15Wide
Islands, Long, down breakout27.33Tall43Narrow
Islands, Long, up breakout21.46Tall41Narrow
Measured Move Down (second leg target)N/AN/AN/AN/A
Measured Move Up (second leg target)N/AN/AN/AN/A
Pennants, down breakout6.72Tall9Wide
Pennants, up breakout6.86Tall8Wide
Pipe Bottom, up breakout11.64TallN/AN/A
Pipe Tops, down breakout10.23TallN/AN/A
Rectangles Bottoms, down breakout 11.53Tie64Wide
Rectangles Bottoms, up breakout10.89Tall65Wide
Rectangles Tops, down breakout10.09Tall62Wide
Rectangles Tops, up breakout10.59Tall65Wide
Rounding Bottoms, up breakout31.58Tall196Wide
Rounding Tops, down breakout31.02Tall118Tie
Rounding Tops, up breakout23.90Tall123Narrow
Scallops, Ascending, down breakout 21.47Tall34Narrow
Scallops, Ascending, up breakout19.77Tall39Wide
Scallops, Ascending and Inverted, up breakout22.51Tall34Narrow
Scallops, Descending, down breakout 22.27Tie34Narrow
Scallops, Descending, up breakout24.00Tall42Wide
Scallops, Inverted and Descending, down breakout20.46Tall25Tie
Three Falling Peaks, down breakout23.50Short38Narrow
Three Rising Valleys, up breakout23.80Tall43Narrow
Triangles, Ascending, down breakout12.02Tall51Narrow
Triangles, Ascending, up breakout10.13Tall45Wide
Triangles, Descending, down breakout 11.50Tall44Wide
Triangles, Descending, up breakout11.63Tall47Wide
Triangles, Symmetrical, down breakout14.50Tall39Wide
Triangles, Symmetrical, up breakout14.48Tall42Wide
Triple Bottoms, up breakout18.66Short78Narrow
Triple Tops, down breakout19.44Tall75Narrow
Wedges, Falling, down breakout16.87Tall42Wide
Wedges, Falling, up breakout17.75Tall36Tie
Wedges, Rising, down breakout15.00Tall37Wide
Wedges, Rising, up breakout15.12Short38Wide

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. All great discoveries are made by mistake.