Written and copyright © 2005-2011 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
In
numerous studies I have conducted, one factor stands above all others when trying
to gauge the best performance of
a chart pattern: Height. Tall chart patterns perform better than short ones. What
is meant by tall and what is meant by
short? Compute the chart pattern's height from the highest peak to the
lowest valley. Divide the result by the breakout
price and then compare it to the median height shown in the following table. If
your number is greater than the median then
you have a tall pattern. If your number is less than the median then your chart
pattern is short.
A
similar situation applies to width. Unfortunately, width is a poor indicator of
performance because some wide chart patterns
perform better and some don't. Measure the length of the chart pattern from
its start to its end and compare it to the
median width listed in the following table. Wide chart patterns have widths
greater than the median. Narrow chart patterns
have widths less than the median.
Where does a chart pattern start and end? Use
the first peak or valley and the last peak or valley in the chart pattern as the
start and end points. A head-and-shoulders top, for example, begins with the
highest peak in the left shoulder and ends with the highest peak in the right
shoulder.
The
“Works Best” column in the following table tells whether tall or short
works best for height and narrow or wide works best for width.
| Bull Market Chart Pattern | Median
Height (%) | Works
Best | Median
Width (days) | Works
Best |
| Broadening Bottoms, down breakout | 17.50 | Tall | 49 | Tie |
| Broadening Bottoms, up breakout | 15.13 | Tall | 45 | Narrow |
| Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, down breakout | 14.70 | Tall | 64 | Wide |
| Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, up breakout | 13.24 | Tall | 59 | Wide |
| Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, down breakout | 14.20 | Tall | 55 | Wide |
| Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, up breakout | 13.13 | Tall | 63 | Tie |
| Broadening Tops, down breakout | 15.95 | Tall | 49 | Tie |
| Broadening Tops, up breakout | 14.66 | Tall | 52 | Wide |
| Broadening Wedges, Ascending, down breakout | 23.31 | Tall | 83 | Narrow |
| Broadening Wedges, Ascending, up breakout | 18.60 | Tall | 66 | Wide |
| Broadening Wedges, Descending, down breakout | 22.40 | Tall | 55 | Narrow |
| Broadening Wedges, Descending, up breakout | 21.77 | Tall | 52 | Narrow |
| Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms, up breakout | 35.87 | Tall | 120 | Wide |
| Bump-and-run Reversal Tops, down breakout | 43.48 | Tall | 161 | Narrow |
| Cup-with-Handle, up breakout | 27.41 | Tall | 155 | Narrow |
| Cup-with-Handle, Inverted, down breakout | 31.93 | Tall | 107 | Narrow |
| Diamond Bottoms, down breakout | 13.42 | Tall | 27 | Narrow |
| Diamond Bottoms, up breakout | 13.19 | Tall | 27 | Wide |
| Diamond Tops, down breakout | 10.70 | Tall | 36 | Narrow |
| Diamond Tops, up breakout | 12.43 | Tie | 37 | Narrow |
| Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam, up breakout | 17.54 | Tall | 37 | Tie |
| Double Bottoms, Adam & Eve, up breakout | 17.28 | Tall | 50 | Narrow |
| Double Bottoms, Eve & Adam, up breakout | 18.03 | Short | 50 | Narrow |
| Double Bottoms, Eve & Eve, up breakout | 16.40 | Short | 50 | Narrow |
| Double Tops, Adam & Adam, down breakout | 17.12 | Tall | 35 | Narrow |
| Double Tops, Adam & Eve, down breakout | 17.02 | Tall | 39 | Narrow |
| Double Tops, Eve & Adam, down breakout | 15.82 | Tall | 40 | Narrow |
| Double Tops, Eve & Eve, down breakout | 17.13 | Tall | 43 | Narrow |
| Flags, down breakout | 5.38 | Tall | 9 | Narrow |
| Flags, up breakout | 6.68 | Tall | 8 | Wide |
| Flags, High and Tight, up breakout | 20.91 | Short | 65 | Narrow |
| Gaps | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, up breakout | 18.81 | Tall | 55 | Narrow |
| Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex, up breakout | 17.70 | Tie | 90 | Wide |
| Head-and-Shoulders Tops, down breakout | 17.27 | Tall | 49 | Narrow |
| Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Complex, down breakout | 19.49 | Tall | 73 | Narrow |
| Horn Bottoms, up breakout | 11.33 | Tall | N/A | N/A |
| Horn Tops, down breakout | 10.87 | Tall | N/A | N/A |
| Islands Reversals, down breakout | 8.96 | Tall | 18 | Wide |
| Islands Reversals, up breakout | 8.82 | Tall | 15 | Wide |
| Islands, Long, down breakout | 27.33 | Tall | 43 | Narrow |
| Islands, Long, up breakout | 21.46 | Tall | 41 | Narrow |
| Measured Move Down (second leg target) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Measured Move Up (second leg target) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pennants, down breakout | 6.72 | Tall | 9 | Wide |
| Pennants, up breakout | 6.86 | Tall | 8 | Wide |
| Pipe Bottom, up breakout | 11.64 | Tall | N/A | N/A |
| Pipe Tops, down breakout | 10.23 | Tall | N/A | N/A |
| Rectangles Bottoms, down breakout | 11.53 | Tie | 64 | Wide |
| Rectangles Bottoms, up breakout | 10.89 | Tall | 65 | Wide |
| Rectangles Tops, down breakout | 10.09 | Tall | 62 | Wide |
| Rectangles Tops, up breakout | 10.59 | Tall | 65 | Wide |
| Rounding Bottoms, up breakout | 31.58 | Tall | 196 | Wide |
| Rounding Tops, down breakout | 31.02 | Tall | 118 | Tie |
| Rounding Tops, up breakout | 23.90 | Tall | 123 | Narrow |
| Scallops, Ascending, down breakout | 21.47 | Tall | 34 | Narrow |
| Scallops, Ascending, up breakout | 19.77 | Tall | 39 | Wide |
| Scallops, Ascending and Inverted, up breakout | 22.51 | Tall | 34 | Narrow |
| Scallops, Descending, down breakout | 22.27 | Tie | 34 | Narrow |
| Scallops, Descending, up breakout | 24.00 | Tall | 42 | Wide |
| Scallops, Inverted and Descending, down breakout | 20.46 | Tall | 25 | Tie |
| Three Falling Peaks, down breakout | 23.50 | Short | 38 | Narrow |
| Three Rising Valleys, up breakout | 23.80 | Tall | 43 | Narrow |
| Triangles, Ascending, down breakout | 12.02 | Tall | 51 | Narrow |
| Triangles, Ascending, up breakout | 10.13 | Tall | 45 | Wide |
| Triangles, Descending, down breakout | 11.50 | Tall | 44 | Wide |
| Triangles, Descending, up breakout | 11.63 | Tall | 47 | Wide |
| Triangles, Symmetrical, down breakout | 14.50 | Tall | 39 | Wide |
| Triangles, Symmetrical, up breakout | 14.48 | Tall | 42 | Wide |
| Triple Bottoms, up breakout | 18.66 | Short | 78 | Narrow |
| Triple Tops, down breakout | 19.44 | Tall | 75 | Narrow |
| Wedges, Falling, down breakout | 16.87 | Tall | 42 | Wide |
| Wedges, Falling, up breakout | 17.75 | Tall | 36 | Tie |
| Wedges, Rising, down breakout | 15.00 | Tall | 37 | Wide |
| Wedges, Rising, up breakout | 15.12 | Short | 38 | Wide |
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