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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Watch List

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Busted
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 02/04/2016
16,417 79.92 0.5%
7,051 216.49 3.2%
622 -4.57 -0.7%
4,510 5.32 0.1%
1,915 2.92 0.2%
YTD
-5.8%
-6.1%
7.7%
-9.9%
-6.3%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 01/29/2016
16,700 or 15,000 by 02/15/2016
7,300 or 6,300 by 02/15/2016
640 or 570 by 02/15/2016
4,850 or 4,300 by 02/15/2016
2,000 or 1,800 by 02/15/2016
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Donate now to keep this website free. Thanks -- Tom

READ THIS: The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying. I may or may not buy them.

Consider these stocks as just the first cut in a long process of elimination. They have not been filtered for anything other than I find them interesting, so you should do additional research before trading them. I am not recommending that you buy any of these stocks. No stocks that I currently own appear in the list unless I bought it after I posted it. See the privacy statement and disclaimer for more information. I do not tout stocks that I own nor do I tout stocks on behalf of others.

I have a computer program that builds this list by finding the most recent chart pattern in the file. That may or may not be the one I am interested in, so keep that in mind. This list is updated whenever time allows. Stocks may appear or disappear without this list being updated.

Watch List Removal Philosophy

First, there are two reasons for a security listed in the Additions section to not appear in the list. The first is that I bought it. Stocks I own, as I mentioned above, will not appear in this list. I don't want to be accused to touting stuff I own.

Second, is that I conducted more research or something happened in the markets which caused me to remove the security from my shopping list. It fell out of favor for whatever reason. I don't disclose the reason for removal (I used to), because maintaining the list is just too much trouble.

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Watch List

The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying. I may or may not buy them. Read the above introduction for more information.

If no securities appear in the list, then I don't see anything worth buying. Click on the symbol for a more detailed discussion of the security. This list is automatically generated, so the patterns found here are the most recent ones located in the stock, but are not necessarily the ones I am looking at. Read the list of additions for a more accurate picture.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELPipe top      07/27/201508/03/2015Insurance (Life)
CHSPipe bottom      08/17/201508/24/2015Apparel
DVNTriangle, symmetrical      11/06/201512/01/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
BOOMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metal Fabricating
GPSPipe top      11/02/201511/09/2015Apparel
HSCTriangle, symmetrical      09/16/201510/30/2015Diversified Co.
MDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/22/201501/04/2016Retail Store
NWPXTriple top      10/07/201511/05/2015Building Materials
PFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/06/201512/02/2015Insurance (Diversified)
SWNFlag, high and tight      12/17/201501/28/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
SMRTTriangle, descending      08/20/201509/24/2015Apparel
USGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Building Materials

 

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $15.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.73 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -34.21%
Volume: 929,200 shares. 3 month avg: 666,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 08/03/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $10.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.02 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.53%
Volume: 1,632,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,811,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 594 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $26.56
1 Month avg volatility: $2.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.05 or 17.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.00%
Volume: 11,744,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,835,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $6.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.09 or 20.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.44%
Volume: 25,000 shares. 3 month avg: 76,552 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $23.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.52 or 11.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.24%
Volume: 7,390,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,343,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/02/2015 to 11/09/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 593 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $6.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.69 or 16.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.20%
Volume: 877,100 shares. 3 month avg: 819,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/16/2015 to 10/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $40.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.38 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.47%
Volume: 7,030,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,471,758 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 12/22/2015 to 01/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 607 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $9.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.23 or 18.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.10%
Volume: 12,600 shares. 3 month avg: 85,685 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 10/07/2015 to 11/05/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $36.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.63 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.21%
Volume: 2,762,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,782,805 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/06/2015 to 12/02/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $8.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.74 or 23.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.33%
Volume: 17,355,200 shares. 3 month avg: 19,382,549 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/17/2015 to 01/28/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $7.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.98 or 13.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.84%
Volume: 79,200 shares. 3 month avg: 226,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/20/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 639
2/4/16 close: $19.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.41 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.33%
Volume: 4,813,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,136,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Watch List Additions

2/4/16 I added AEL (American Equity Investment). The stock is down since Nov but I'm not sure why. Earnings come out on 2/10, so I'll wait to see how bad they are. The only thing good about this is its recovery potential.

2/1/16 The following are cloud bank patterns (weekly scale: high risk, high reward). Chicos FAS (CHS), Devon Energy (DVN), Dynamic Materials (Boom), Gap (GPS), Harsco (HSC), Northwest Pipe (NWPX), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Stein Mart (SMRT), USG Corp (USG).

1/28/16. I added 3 stocks to my shopping list: WMT (Walmart), SMTC (Semtech), and ADTN (Adtran). Full disclosure: I bought some of the Walmart this morning and have a limit order to buy SMTC. As for ADTN, it's too expensive at this stage to buy but it does have some upside potential.

WMT has earnings coming up in about 3 weeks, so it's a risk especially with them paying workers more and closing stores. Upside is 73 to 80 where a cloud bank rests.

SMTC has a cloud bank, too, at 22 to 28.

ADTN: I see a rise to 22 to 25, so if I can pick some up at, say, 17, it might make sense. It's a telecom play, and I don't like the competitive nature of the industry.

1/12/2016. I found some bottom fishing stocks I like and one that's a momentum play. JC Penny (JCP) shows a confirmed double bottom. It's a turn around play that I mentioned before (it was a dud then). Looks like a good candidate to see it rise from about $7.30 to $10. Macy's (M) is another double bottom play. The stock is trading around 39 and it could recover to 63. That could take years. 49 seems more likely. Finally, VCA (Woof) is the momentum play. It had a downward breakout from a symmetrical triangle. My guess is this will bust and when it does, the stock will be a buy. Otherwise, it seems priced for perfection.

1/5/16: I'm adding AES (AES) to my shopping list. This is a power company that owns power plants in 18 countries. Yield 4%. Price has thrown back to a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern (December) and is struggling to move up. That could be due to the international nature of its holdings (coupled with a strong dollar).

Also, Christopher and Banks (CBK). This is a high risk play since it's so cheap and women's apparel isn't exactly high tech. Insiders are buying the stock and price has confirmed a double bottom. My guess is it'll drop back some before moving much higher. I need to do more checking on this one before I buy.

11/20/15: I added Centerpoint Energy (CNP). With a dividend rate of 5.8%, it's a risky play since the div rate is above peers (it could be cut and if it is, expect the stock to drop the same percentage as the percentage of the cut). Interest rates are due to rise in December, so that's a negative, too. ADDENDUM: It has a play in a master limited partnership, so I don't recommend this stock. The MLP is probably responsible for dragging the stock down.

11/16/15 I added Prudential Financial (PRU) to my shopping list but this is too expensive at current price. If it drops (to, say, 81), I'll buy some. If it breaks out of it's congestion region (see the long term chart, from 75-95), then maybe I'll buy some there, too.

8/3/15: I added two stocks, ALK and CNW. Alaska Air (ALK) and Con-way (CNW) should prosper as the price of oil sinks. ALK had a quarter release that the market couldn't decide if if was good or not. The stock has recovered a bit since the release. CNW has been trendline lower but it shows a confirmed double bottom at the end of a long downtrend and a quarter that was better than the market expected. I may buy this after the throwback completes. Since the stock has been trendline lower for most of the year, it's a chancy, bottom-fishing play. ALK is a momentum play.

4/22/15: I added Global Sources (GSOL). This is a thinly traded stock but what appeals to me is the ugly double bottom that appears since March. Few analysts cover this stock so it's hard to get info about the company.

3/19/15: I thought I would swing trade these three ETFs: PJP (PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust Dynamic Pharmaceuticals Portfolio), IYC (iShares U.S. Consumer Services), and IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology). I will do this by buying soon, perhaps tomorrow, and selling when the weekly chart closes below an up-sloping trendline. I chose these three because they have few dramatic moves down recently and are outperforming the market.

3/2/15: I continued shopping for stocks and found a few more. Facebook (FB) has moved sideways in a tall rectangle since October. If it hits 83 (above the top), it could pop. Trex (TREX) is similar except it broke out after good earnings. I expect a retrace and when that happens, it could be a buy. I haven't looked at the fundamentals of either company yet.

3/1/15: With the turn of a new month (March 1), I looked at my portfolio for pruning. Some stocks are doing well, too well, and some are moving sideways for too long. Hub Group (HUBG) is one I'm looking at. It broke out upward from a broadening bottom pattern (pattern start: the peak in Nov).

(I didn't record when I posted this, but it was about mid Feb). I went shopping for stocks I could swing trade and found these: CDI (CDI), Illumina (ILMN), and PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP). PJP is an exchange traded fund to help shelter risk from a drug company. It sports a high return with average risk. ILMN is a biotech company that has moved horizontally since Nov 2014. I expect this to move up soon, following the breakout from an ascending triangle (except that this triangle slopes upward like a rising wedge...starting in Feb 2014). CDI is another flat base breakout although it hasn't moved far. On the weekly chart, this has formed a flat top since April 2012 after a good move up in 2011. All three of these are from industries ranked high for relative strength among other industries I follow.

Addendum: Another word about ILMN: The stock has move up sharply from the low in 12/2011. Thus, I expect this stock to go sideways for an extended period. I probably won't buy it for that reason and because it's expensive.

Also, CDI suffers weakness every March or shortly thereafter. This has happened for the last 4 years. I'm going to avoid buying this stock for that reason. Even if earnings are boffo on March 4, this stock could drop from 19 to 13.5 easily enough in the coming months. Too risky.

2/12/15: I added Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU). I'm overloaded with cash but the utility sector is having problems. I haven't uncovered why but this fund yields 3+% and I figure if I time the entry right, I can trade this one higher while collecting the dividend.

1/12/15: I found 15 stocks that interested me but most will be deleted. See my Tuesday 1/13/15. Stock Shopping List blog post for more details.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Donate now to keep this website free. Thanks -- Tom Q: What is the difference between men and government bonds? A: Bonds mature.