1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $156.35 or 3.7% below the close.
Volume: 3,037,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/15/2017 to 12/26/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.
Watch List Additions
1/15/2018, (revised 1/17/18). I did add Mastercard (MA) today, which I intend to buy at the open tomorrow. My guess is this will drop some in the coming days before recovering. It will also suffer
if the government cuts merchant fees which the company receives. If that happens, it might be a buying opportunity.
Not shown in the list but I'm looking at these ETFs for purchase: FSCPX, FSPHX, FSDPX, FSCHX, ARKW, SMH, XAR, IAI, XHE. With the markets so high, I don't want to buy individual
securities. So I'm looking at ETFs as a way to diversify in a sector, and these fit the bill.
1/4/18 I added New York and Company (NWY) because of its high and tight flag. I haven't examined the company to see if it's really worth buying, but the HTF looks
appealing. Maybe for a small position, it's worth a play.
12/23/17 I continue to search for something to buy in an environment where everything is expensive. So I looked at ETFs and found XLK, the SPDR technology select sector fund.
It's expensive here, so I'll wait for it to come down some. I also added BOTZ (Global X Robotics and Artificial Intelligence fund), and ITB
(DJ US Home construction).
Most of the stocks I added to the list on 12/19, I didn't buy and removed them from the list. Why? Various reasons, but do your own homework.
12/19/17 As I wrote in my blog, I went shopping for stocks to buy this past weekend, and I found some. It took three days of searching, including research I really didn't need, but here's
Aceto (ACET), Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX), JCPenney (JCP) and Newell Brands (NWL). Most of these are all plays on a struggling company, a fallen angel. Think
bottom fishing. ACET has been dropping since 2015. This is a cloud bank pattern play. I see this recovering from 10-11 to 15, nearly a 50% move. FCX: Another cloud bank at 29-30, so
this is a near double. JCP: A highly leveraged company with strong insider buying in August. NWL: I see this climbing to 45, as a rebound to a dead-cat bounce. A small cloud bank at 45.
I added CTS Corp (CTS) and Amdocs Limited (DOX) to my shopping list. These are appealing on the weekly scale for a longer term hold.
1/14/17. TXN (Texas Instruments) shows an ascending triangle. A check of the company didn't find any surprises. They pay a small dividend and plan to use their cash
flow to buy back shares. Earnings come out on the 24th, so that's a risk. My plan is to buy a half position (which I almost never do within 3 weeks of an earnings announcement) and buy
the rest if the stock dips after earnings come out. The industry is hot right now, and has been hot for months.
12/10/16. I took a day to review my holdings and select buy and sell targets and the next day to search for possible buy candidates. Of the ten stocks I picked out, only two survived the
review. They are CF Industries (CF) and USG Corp (USG). On the weekly chart, one (USG) has broken out above overhead resistance and the second is a play on a cloud bank.
I'm hoping that the swift drop will recover with a rise almost as swift (but it's high risk). Both are long term plays.
10/9/16 I added Atwood Oceanics (ATW) and Northwest Pipe (NWPX). ATW is a play on the recovering oil market since it began it's slide in mid 2013. An upward
breakout from a rectangle top in NWPX might signal an extended upward move. This stock has been suffering since mid 2014, so it's not a sure thing either and recovery will take time.
8/28/16 I did some shopping for stocks in anticipation of a drop in the markets during Sept/Oct. Here's what I found: Beazer Homer (BZH), General Cable (BGC), Lam Research (LRCX),
Herman Miller (MLHR), and Stein Mart (SMRT)
5/29/16. I added Dynamic Materials (Boom) and Hovnanian (HOV). Boom is a combination bottom fishing and high, tight flag play. I like the tight shape of the flag but the stock is reluctant to move higher. It could break out downward, so I'll wait for it to hit 11 or so. HOV is another bottom fishing play. The housing market is firming up and I expect this to recover over the long term (years). The stock has earnings due on 6/2, so I'll wait for that and probably a few weeks after to let it play out. Let me also say that I've not done well in housing stocks
so this could be another disaster.
3/18/16. I removed Genworth from consideration since it reads more like a company struggling to stay out of bankruptcy. Westlake is also being dropped because it's trying to buy another
chemical company. That will hurt the company in the short term since they'll be fighting to acquire it at a higher price and to integrate Axiall into the fold.
3/17/16. I added these after reviewing my database: CDI Corp (CDI), Genworth (GNW), and Westlake Chemical (WLK).
I haven't researched any of them yet. I've owned Genworth but they have been struggling lately. They might have hit bottom. The high and tight flag might make for a good trade. CDI is coming
off a head-and-shoulders bottom, moving up. This is an indirect play on the oil business. Westlake is coming off a double bottom. Full disclosure: I could buy any of these stocks at tomorrow's open.
3/10/16. I did more research on MOS, IPI, and POT and found that potash prices will likely decline through 2017. So even though MOS is inexpensive with good upside potential, I expect it to
drop, so am removing it from my shopping list.
I also removed TDC from my shopping list. The stock has been going down for a long time now, too long, and management says 2016 will be weak, too.
3/7/16 I added three picks today: Celdadon (CGI), Mosaic (MOS) and Teradata (TDC). Good price for MOS is to buy at 26 and sell at 45. TER: buy at 24-25 and sell at 40. CGI: The stock broke out of a congestion region today, so it's up 6% or so. Maybe wait for a throwback and then buy. Sell at 17. These are all longer-term plays, but that's the kind of returns I'm looking for.
I expect a retrace in the general market, so maybe these buy prices will occur. Be sure to check everything again if that happens. They might not be buys then. See 3/10/16 note.
2/23/16. I added Lincoln National Corp (LNC) to my shopping list. This is a cloud bank play with a potential rise to 45 and 50. But it's a bit high now. I'll wait for an ugly double bottom or even a double bottom to appear and maybe buy then.
2/4/16 I added AEL (American Equity Investment). The stock is down since Nov but I'm not sure why. Earnings come out on 2/10, so I'll wait to see how bad they are. The only thing good about this is its recovery potential.
2/1/16 The following are cloud bank patterns (weekly scale: high risk, high reward). Chicos FAS (CHS), Devon Energy (DVN), Dynamic Materials (Boom), Gap (GPS), Harsco (HSC), Northwest Pipe (NWPX), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Stein Mart (SMRT), USG Corp (USG).
1/28/16. I added 3 stocks to my shopping list: WMT (Walmart), SMTC (Semtech), and ADTN (Adtran). Full disclosure: I bought some of the Walmart this morning and have a limit order to buy SMTC.
As for ADTN, it's too expensive at this stage to buy but it does have some upside potential.
WMT has earnings coming up in about 3 weeks, so it's a risk especially with them paying workers more and closing stores. Upside is 73 to 80 where a cloud bank rests.
SMTC has a cloud bank, too, at 22 to 28.
ADTN: I see a rise to 22 to 25, so if I can pick some up at, say, 17, it might make sense. It's a telecom play, and I don't like the competitive nature of the industry.
1/12/2016. I found some bottom fishing stocks I like and one that's a momentum play. JC Penny (JCP) shows a confirmed double bottom. It's a turn around play that I mentioned before (it was a dud then).
Looks like a good candidate to see it rise from about $7.30 to $10. Macy's (M) is another double bottom play. The stock is trading around 39 and it could recover to 63. That could take years. 49 seems more
likely. Finally, VCA (Woof) is the momentum play. It had a downward breakout from a symmetrical triangle. My guess is this will bust and when it does, the stock will be a buy. Otherwise, it seems
priced for perfection.
1/5/16: I'm adding AES (AES) to my shopping list. This is a power company that owns power plants in 18 countries. Yield 4%. Price has thrown back to a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern (December) and is struggling to move up. That could be due to the international nature of its holdings (coupled with a strong dollar).
Also, Christopher and Banks (CBK).
This is a high risk play since it's so cheap and women's apparel isn't exactly high tech. Insiders are buying the stock and price has confirmed a double bottom. My guess is it'll drop back some before
moving much higher. I need to do more checking on this one before I buy.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
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Q: What is the difference between men and government bonds? A: Bonds mature.