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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
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Bulkowski's Watch List

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Busted
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/26/2016
18,095 -166.62 -0.9%
7,915 -22.30 -0.3%
692 -1.81 -0.3%
5,257 -48.26 -0.9%
2,146 -18.59 -0.9%
YTD
3.8%
5.4%
19.8%
5.0%
5.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/15/2016
17,800 or 18,600 by 10/01/2016
8,275 or 7,500 by 10/01/2016
710 or 650 by 10/01/2016
5,400 or 5,100 by 10/01/2016
2,080 or 2,225 by 10/01/2016

Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

READ THIS: The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying. I may or may not buy them.

Consider these stocks as just the first cut in a long process of elimination. They have not been filtered for anything other than I find them interesting, so you should do additional research before trading them. I am not recommending that you buy any of these stocks. No stocks that I currently own appear in the list unless I bought it after I posted it. See the privacy statement and disclaimer for more information. I do not tout stocks that I own nor do I tout stocks on behalf of others.

I have a computer program that builds this list by finding the most recent chart pattern in the file. That may or may not be the one I am interested in, so keep that in mind. This list is updated whenever time allows. Stocks may appear or disappear without this list being updated.

Watch List Removal Philosophy

First, there are two reasons for a security listed in the Additions section to not appear in the list. The first is that I bought it. Stocks I own, as I mentioned above, will not appear in this list. I don't want to be accused to touting stuff I own.

Second, is that I conducted more research or something happened in the markets which caused me to remove the security from my shopping list. It fell out of favor for whatever reason. I don't disclose the reason for removal (I used to), because maintaining the list is just too much trouble.

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Watch List

The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying. I may or may not buy them. Read the above introduction for more information.

If no securities appear in the list, then I don't see anything worth buying. Click on the symbol for a more detailed discussion of the security. This list is automatically generated, so the patterns found here are the most recent ones located in the stock, but are not necessarily the ones I am looking at. Read the list of additions for a more accurate picture.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
BZHTriple bottom      05/19/201606/27/2016Homebuilding
BGCPipe bottom      06/27/201607/05/2016Computers and Peripherals
LRCXDiamond top      06/06/201607/07/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MLHRTriangle, ascending      03/21/201605/26/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
SMRTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/19/201608/01/2016Apparel

 

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 625
8/26/16 close: $10.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.75 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.31%
Volume: 655,500 shares. 3 month avg: 700,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/19/2016 to 06/27/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 625
8/26/16 close: $15.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.50 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.72%
Volume: 355,100 shares. 3 month avg: 626,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2016 to 07/05/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 625
8/26/16 close: $93.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $97.64 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.12%
Volume: 1,689,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,304,677 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/06/2016 to 07/07/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 625
8/26/16 close: $36.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.17 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.54%
Volume: 377,000 shares. 3 month avg: 347,728 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 05/26/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 625
8/26/16 close: $8.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.07 or 11.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.10%
Volume: 61,400 shares. 3 month avg: 139,058 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/19/2016 to 08/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Watch List Additions

8/28/16 I did some shopping for stocks in anticipation of a drop in the markets during Sept/Oct. Here's what I found: Beazer Homer (BZH), General Cable (BGC), Lam Research (LRCX), Herman Miller (MLHR), and Stein Mart (SMRT) .

5/29/16. I added Dynamic Materials (Boom) and Hovnanian (HOV). Boom is a combination bottom fishing and high, tight flag play. I like the tight shape of the flag but the stock is reluctant to move higher. It could break out downward, so I'll wait for it to hit 11 or so. HOV is another bottom fishing play. The housing market is firming up and I expect this to recover over the long term (years). The stock has earnings due on 6/2, so I'll wait for that and probably a few weeks after to let it play out. Let me also say that I've not done well in housing stocks so this could be another disaster.

3/18/16. I removed Genworth from consideration since it reads more like a company struggling to stay out of bankruptcy. Westlake is also being dropped because it's trying to buy another chemical company. That will hurt the company in the short term since they'll be fighting to acquire it at a higher price and to integrate Axiall into the fold.

3/17/16. I added these after reviewing my database: CDI Corp (CDI), Genworth (GNW), and Westlake Chemical (WLK). I haven't researched any of them yet. I've owned Genworth but they have been struggling lately. They might have hit bottom. The high and tight flag might make for a good trade. CDI is coming off a head-and-shoulders bottom, moving up. This is an indirect play on the oil business. Westlake is coming off a double bottom. Full disclosure: I could buy any of these stocks at tomorrow's open.

3/10/16. I did more research on MOS, IPI, and POT and found that potash prices will likely decline through 2017. So even though MOS is inexpensive with good upside potential, I expect it to drop, so am removing it from my shopping list.

I also removed TDC from my shopping list. The stock has been going down for a long time now, too long, and management says 2016 will be weak, too.

3/7/16 I added three picks today: Celdadon (CGI), Mosaic (MOS) and Teradata (TDC). Good price for MOS is to buy at 26 and sell at 45. TER: buy at 24-25 and sell at 40. CGI: The stock broke out of a congestion region today, so it's up 6% or so. Maybe wait for a throwback and then buy. Sell at 17. These are all longer-term plays, but that's the kind of returns I'm looking for. I expect a retrace in the general market, so maybe these buy prices will occur. Be sure to check everything again if that happens. They might not be buys then. See 3/10/16 note.

2/23/16. I added Lincoln National Corp (LNC) to my shopping list. This is a cloud bank play with a potential rise to 45 and 50. But it's a bit high now. I'll wait for an ugly double bottom or even a double bottom to appear and maybe buy then.

2/4/16 I added AEL (American Equity Investment). The stock is down since Nov but I'm not sure why. Earnings come out on 2/10, so I'll wait to see how bad they are. The only thing good about this is its recovery potential.

2/1/16 The following are cloud bank patterns (weekly scale: high risk, high reward). Chicos FAS (CHS), Devon Energy (DVN), Dynamic Materials (Boom), Gap (GPS), Harsco (HSC), Northwest Pipe (NWPX), Principal Financial Group (PFG), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Stein Mart (SMRT), USG Corp (USG).

1/28/16. I added 3 stocks to my shopping list: WMT (Walmart), SMTC (Semtech), and ADTN (Adtran). Full disclosure: I bought some of the Walmart this morning and have a limit order to buy SMTC. As for ADTN, it's too expensive at this stage to buy but it does have some upside potential.

WMT has earnings coming up in about 3 weeks, so it's a risk especially with them paying workers more and closing stores. Upside is 73 to 80 where a cloud bank rests.

SMTC has a cloud bank, too, at 22 to 28.

ADTN: I see a rise to 22 to 25, so if I can pick some up at, say, 17, it might make sense. It's a telecom play, and I don't like the competitive nature of the industry.

1/12/2016. I found some bottom fishing stocks I like and one that's a momentum play. JC Penny (JCP) shows a confirmed double bottom. It's a turn around play that I mentioned before (it was a dud then). Looks like a good candidate to see it rise from about $7.30 to $10. Macy's (M) is another double bottom play. The stock is trading around 39 and it could recover to 63. That could take years. 49 seems more likely. Finally, VCA (Woof) is the momentum play. It had a downward breakout from a symmetrical triangle. My guess is this will bust and when it does, the stock will be a buy. Otherwise, it seems priced for perfection.

1/5/16: I'm adding AES (AES) to my shopping list. This is a power company that owns power plants in 18 countries. Yield 4%. Price has thrown back to a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern (December) and is struggling to move up. That could be due to the international nature of its holdings (coupled with a strong dollar).

Also, Christopher and Banks (CBK). This is a high risk play since it's so cheap and women's apparel isn't exactly high tech. Insiders are buying the stock and price has confirmed a double bottom. My guess is it'll drop back some before moving much higher. I need to do more checking on this one before I buy.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Q: What is the difference between men and government bonds? A: Bonds mature.