As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20
As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20

Bulkowski on Mutual Fund (Losers) Test Portfolio

 

As of 5/19/17, I stopped updating this test portfolio because getting quotes for the many funds I follow became too difficult.

This page shows a test portfolio based on trading Vanguard index mutual funds showing the worst performance. You can find background information and what my tests revealed in Trading Mutual Funds.

Warning: I am not recommending that you use this portfolio to build a trading system or to trade the funds listed in the portfolio. I just show this model as an experiment of how a system based mutual fund portfolio would do in real life.

You should conduct your own research to verify this trading idea and performance before relying on the results. Historical testing may not reflect real-time trading and past performance does not guarantee future results. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Overview
Portfolio Construction Rules
Trading Tips
The Portfolio
See Also

 

Mutual Fund (Losers) Test Portfolio Overview

As mentioned previously, for full details on the historical experiments used to test this trading setup, see Trading Mutual Funds.

The idea for this portfolio came not from my head or from a book, but from test results. I discovered that trading the worst performing Vanguard index mutual funds resulted in performance better than trading other mutual funds. This portfolio is a product of that testing.

Why this portfolio works is a mystery. Based on industry relative strength tests for stocks, I know that the worst performing stocks (not mutual funds) tend to stay lousy performers (but not necessarily in last place. How long they remain "lousy" is unknown, so it is possible that poorly performing stocks show greater improvement over time than the best performing ones for the same time period). Since the minimum hold time is 9 months for index funds, that gives the worst performing fund the chance to improve enough before it is swapped out for another lousy fund.

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Mutual Fund (Losers) Test Portfolio Construction Rules

I used the following guidelines to construct and maintain the portfolio.

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Mutual Fund (Losers) Test Portfolio Trading Tips

The historical performance of this portfolio is not as good as the one based on trading the best performing funds.

Index funds work better than non-index funds, and better than the combination of index and non-index funds from the Vanguard family.

The Mutual Fund (Losers) Test Portfolio

In the table, the Buy/Sell columns show the dates when shares were purchased/sold at the NAV. The Net Change column is the profit or loss of the trade, expressed as a percentage (shares x sell price) - (shares x buy price). If the trade is still open, the closing price as of the date the list was created is used as the sale price. The S&P Change column is the change in the S&P 500 index between the Buy and Sell dates, using the opening prices. The Max Loss column shows the largest drop below the buy price during the time the fund was held.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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StockBuySharesPriceSellPriceNet
Change
S&P
Change
Max
Loss
VGTSX02/04/20083,469$14.4212/02/2008$7.74-46.3% -41.4%-52.3%
VEURX02/04/20081,962$25.4812/02/2008$13.73-46.1% -41.4%-52.4%
NAESX12/02/20081,653$16.3010/02/2009$23.0941.6% 25.9%-21.0%
VISVX12/02/20083,467$7.7410/02/2009$10.5636.4% 25.9%-26.1%
VPACX10/02/20094,991$7.6508/03/2010$8.126.2% 9.3%-4.2%
VDAIX10/02/20092,451$14.9409/02/2010$16.349.4% 4.9%0.0%
VFTSX08/03/20106,617$6.1306/02/2011$7.2418.1% 16.8%-7.1%
VISVX09/02/20103,372$11.8807/05/2011$15.2028.0% 24.0%-0.4%
VMVIX07/05/20112,523$20.3205/02/2012$20.701.9% 4.9%-22.4%
VEURX06/02/20112,060$23.2507/03/2012$19.79-14.9% 3.9%-26.4%
VPACX05/02/20126,044$8.6403/04/2013$9.7713.1% 8.0%-11.1%
VDAIX07/03/20121,961$20.7906/04/2013$25.1320.8% 20.1%-2.0%
VEURX03/04/20132,549$23.1801/03/2014$27.9020.4% 20.7%-1.9%
VPACX06/04/20134,951$9.9606/03/2014$10.909.5% 17.2%-5.1%
VFWIX01/03/20143,956$17.9712/02/2014$18.130.9% 12.0%-5.2%
VISGX06/03/20141,643$32.8506/02/2015$37.2513.4% 9.7%-6.6%
VPACX12/02/20146,762$10.6110/02/2015$10.05-5.2% -6.4%-9.1%
VFWIX06/02/20153,231$18.9405/03/2016$16.75-11.6% -1.6%-22.6%
VISGX10/02/20152,042$33.3008/02/2016$36.078.3% 12.9%-15.8%
VIGRX05/03/20161,004$53.8804/04/2017$62.5316.1% 13.4%-2.9%
StockBuySharesPriceSellPriceNet
Change
S&P
Change
Max
Loss
VSIAX04/04/20171,200$52.32Open$52.12-0.4% 1.5%-1.7%
VHDYX08/02/20162,603$28.29Open$30.297.1% 9.0%-2.9%

 

Using completed trades only, a portfolio with a starting value of $100,000.00 would be worth $136,442.55, a change of 36.4%, with an maximum loss of 52.4%.
Including open trades, the starting value is $100,000.00 and the ending value is $141,406.31, a change of 41.4%, with an maximum loss of 52.4%.
For open trades during 2017, the change is -0.2%.
This report was prepared on May 18, 2017 and it covers the trades shown.

See Also

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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