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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Blog Archive: JAS

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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
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Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/19/2017
22,371 39.45 0.2%
9,507 -7.56 -0.1%
737 -2.02 -0.3%
6,461 6.68 0.1%
2,507 2.78 0.1%
YTD
13.2%
5.1%
11.7%
20.0%
12.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/14/2017
22,450 or 21,500 by 10/01/2017
9,750 or 9,200 by 10/01/2017
775 or 730 by 10/01/2017
6,650 or 6,200 by 10/01/2017
2,600 or 2,425 by 10/01/2017

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

 

Blog Posting: March 7, 2008, Jo-Ann Stores

Jo-Ann Stores on the daily scale

The chart shows Jo-Ann stores on the daily scale. From the low of 9.03 on January 16, price climbed to a high of 17.34 on February 14, a rise of 92%. I allow rises of over 90% in less than 2 months to qualify as high and tight flags. The theory says that price will pause for a few days or weeks and then continue higher for an average rise of 69% before the trend reverses.

I show this one as an example of what happens to many HTFs. Price does not close above the top of the pattern (shown as the red line) but tumbles instead. That is why I suggest waiting for a close above the highest high in the flag -- flagpole combination instead of just waiting for price to close above the flag's trendline (think of a congestion region with the top of it sloping down, following a trendline. In a flag, a close above the trendline would normally signal a buy).

For an example of a high and tight flag that worked, see Stillwater Mining company (SWC). The HTF appears as a small congestion region from February 11 to 14 after a flagpole climb from 7.42 to 15.42, or 108% in about 3 weeks. Price then continued up to a high of 22.72, two days ago, for an additional climb of 47% from the flagpole high. It has dropped since then (closing today, March 6, at 18.37).

JAS Aftermath

The stock of Jo-Ann Stores on the daily scale

Price did, in fact, continue lower, just as the blog entry suggested. The drop reinforces the need to wait for price to close above the top of the chart pattern before taking a position.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Signs you have a drinking problem: The glass keeps missing your mouth!