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Bulkowski's Blog Archive: JAS

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As of 08/20/2019
  Indus: 25,962 -173.35 -0.7%  
  Trans: 10,006 -75.35 -0.7%  
  Utils: 834 -1.95 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 7,949 -54.25 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,901 -23.14 -0.8%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +9.1%  
 +17.0%  
 +19.8%  
 +15.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/15/2019  
  Up arrow27,200 or 24,900 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 9,550 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 790 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow8,200 or 7,400 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,750 by 09/01/2019
As of 08/20/2019
  Indus: 25,962 -173.35 -0.7%  
  Trans: 10,006 -75.35 -0.7%  
  Utils: 834 -1.95 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 7,949 -54.25 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,901 -23.14 -0.8%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +9.1%  
 +17.0%  
 +19.8%  
 +15.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/15/2019  
  Up arrow27,200 or 24,900 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow10,700 or 9,550 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 790 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow8,200 or 7,400 by 09/01/2019
  Up arrow3,000 or 2,750 by 09/01/2019

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

 

Blog Posting: March 7, 2008, Jo-Ann Stores

Jo-Ann Stores on the daily scale

The chart shows Jo-Ann stores on the daily scale. From the low of 9.03 on January 16, price climbed to a high of 17.34 on February 14, a rise of 92%. I allow rises of over 90% in less than 2 months to qualify as high and tight flags. The theory says that price will pause for a few days or weeks and then continue higher for an average rise of 69% before the trend reverses.

I show this one as an example of what happens to many HTFs. Price does not close above the top of the pattern (shown as the red line) but tumbles instead. That is why I suggest waiting for a close above the highest high in the flag -- flagpole combination instead of just waiting for price to close above the flag's trendline (think of a congestion region with the top of it sloping down, following a trendline. In a flag, a close above the trendline would normally signal a buy).

For an example of a high and tight flag that worked, see Stillwater Mining company (SWC). The HTF appears as a small congestion region from February 11 to 14 after a flagpole climb from 7.42 to 15.42, or 108% in about 3 weeks. Price then continued up to a high of 22.72, two days ago, for an additional climb of 47% from the flagpole high. It has dropped since then (closing today, March 6, at 18.37).

JAS Aftermath

The stock of Jo-Ann Stores on the daily scale

Price did, in fact, continue lower, just as the blog entry suggested. The drop reinforces the need to wait for price to close above the top of the chart pattern before taking a position.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners. Signs you have a drinking problem: The glass keeps missing your mouth!