As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast December Update

Released 11/30/2020.

Forecast Updated for December 2020

Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of November 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 4
chart pattern
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI is at 37.9, just above the bearish threshold of 35. Another down day might trigger a tentative bearish signal (tentative because it could change for up to a week).

With the index moving sideways, it looks likely that a retrace is going to happen.

The next chart looks at the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
chart pattern
Because of the steep drop in the Dow, the forecast looks flat (the large swing compressed the scale. See the entire forecast here, without compression).

The index is just above the predicted year end value of 28,839 year. It closed today at 29,639, so it has the next month to lose less than 3%.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
chart pattern
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The prediction has been off almost from the start. As the chart shows, and if you page through the other slides, the Nasdaq this year has been the big winner, not the biggest loser.

It's still possible for the index to tumble if the market becomes worried about Covid killing everyone.

If you were to invert the prediction, it would be closer to reality.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
chart pattern
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

The prediction is flat for the SPX this year. As you can see, the index is well above the prediction.

If the prediction is correct for the rest of the year, look for the index to move higher, especially during the next 2 weeks.

I find that hard to believe. I still think bad Covid news will weigh down the market.

The end.

See Also

 
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