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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 05/02/2016
17,891 117.52 0.7%
7,924 52.32 0.7%
660 5.55 0.8%
4,818 42.23 0.9%
2,081 16.13 0.8%
YTD
2.7%
5.5%
14.2%
-3.8%
1.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 05/02/2016
18,300 or 17,500 by 05/15/2016
8,350 or 7,650 by 05/15/2016
675 or 635 by 05/15/2016
4,700 or 5,000 by 05/15/2016
2,120 or 2,020 by 05/15/2016
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Wilder RSI: 20.9%

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Tuesday 5/3/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.7% or 117.52 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 642 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 352 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 290 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 114/189 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 30/58 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A nice looking double bottom appears at AB. It's just squiggles on the price chart until the index closes above the red line at C.

That happens in this case and the index makes a nice move higher to hit the measure rule target. The measure rule target is the height of the chart pattern (C - A) added to C.

The green line suggests overhead resistance is going to be a problem on Tuesday. The index could turn down but it depends on what company releases earnings, I think. Clearly, there's a lot of overhead resistance the index has to plow through to break into fresh air (over 200 points).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,097.66    
 Weekly S2  17,443.25  345.59   
 Monthly S1  17,494.41  51.16   
 Weekly S1  17,667.21  172.80   
 Daily S2  17,720.43  53.23   
 Low  17,773.71  53.28   
 Open  17,783.78  10.07   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  17,805.80  22.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,826.67  20.87   
 Monthly Pivot  17,831.02  4.35   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,843.03  12.01   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  17,859.07  16.04   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,859.39  0.31   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  17,875.93  16.54   
 Close  17,891.16  15.23   
 High  17,912.35  21.19   
 Daily R1  17,944.44  32.09   
 Daily R2  17,997.71  53.28   
 Weekly R1  18,099.89  102.17   
 Monthly R1  18,227.77  127.88   
 Weekly R2  18,308.61  80.84   
 Monthly R2  18,564.38  255.77   

Monday 5/2/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

After making a strong push higher not only this year but starting back in December, the Dow utility index has run into trouble recently.

I show the index on the daily chart.

Pictured is a head-and-shoulders top with the left shoulder (L), head (H), and right shoulder (R) shown.

The index broke out downward when it closed below the red neckline (A). I drew the line horizontally from the right armpit because for down-sloping necklines (a line connecting the armpits), a close below the line might never happen.

At B, the index has pulled back to the breakout price and coasted a bit above.

This could mark a pause in the upward trend, which I believe to be correct. But it could also mean the index is going down. That's a real possibility, too, since the utilities have been skittish over the past week. I haven't been able to find the reason for the weakness. It wasn't earnings, either.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 26.51 points.
Tuesday: Up 13.08 points.
Wednesday: Up 51.23 points.
Thursday: Down 210.79 points.
Friday: Down 57.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 230.11 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 130.87 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.28 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.2% down from the high of 18,167.63 on 04/20/2016.
     15.0% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     3.9% down from the high of 4,969.32 on 04/20/2016.
     13.4% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 2,111.05 on 04/20/2016.
     14.1% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Productivity & costs8:30 WD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Trade balance8:30 WC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Factory orders10:00 WD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/29/2016, the CPI had:

27 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
177 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 12.9%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,584  17,679  17,747  17,842  17,910 
Weekly  17,404  17,589  17,837  18,022  18,269 
Monthly  17,058  17,416  17,792  18,149  18,525 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,042  2,054  2,064  2,075  2,085 
Weekly  2,025  2,045  2,072  2,093  2,120 
Monthly  1,985  2,025  2,068  2,108  2,151 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,708  4,742  4,775  4,809  4,842 
Weekly  4,636  4,706  4,810  4,880  4,985 
Monthly  4,600  4,688  4,829  4,916  5,057 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.0%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 27.6%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 41.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 16.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
34Head-and-shoulders top
22Triangle, symmetrical
18Pipe bottom
14Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Flag, high and tight
8Triple top
7Triangle, descending
5Broadening top, right-angled and ascending
4Rectangle top
4Double Top, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Electric Utility (Central)1. Medical Supplies
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Metal Fabricating
3. Metal Fabricating3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Metals and Mining (Div.)4. Precision Instrument
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Homebuilding50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Biotechnology51. Apparel
52. Insurance (Life)52. Electronics
53. Computers and Peripherals53. Homebuilding
54. Drug54. Short ETFs
55. Securities Brokerage55. Information Services
56. Information Services56. Shoe
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/29/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 641 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNTriangle, symmetrical      04/01/201604/28/2016IT Services
AMDFlag, high and tight      02/24/201604/22/2016Semiconductor
ATWTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/201604/28/2016Petroleum (Producing)
BMSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/17/201604/27/2016Packaging and Container
CEBBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/21/201604/26/2016Information Services
CNCPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Medical Services
XRAYTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201604/28/2016Medical Supplies
EIGITriangle, symmetrical      03/04/201604/28/2016E-Commerce
FLIRTriple top      03/23/201604/25/2016Aerospace/Defense
FDPRectangle top      03/07/201604/26/2016Food Processing
HEDiamond top      03/21/201604/28/2016Electric Utility (West)
HDHead-and-shoulders top      04/04/201604/27/2016Retail Building Supply
HURCTriangle, ascending      03/31/201604/27/2016Machinery
INFNDead-cat bounce      04/28/201604/28/2016Telecom. Equipment
IVCDead-cat bounce      04/28/201604/28/2016Medical Supplies
LZBTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201604/28/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
MYLTriple top      03/10/201604/22/2016Drug
NOVPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PANWPipe bottom      04/11/201604/18/2016Computer Software and Svcs
SERectangle top      03/01/201604/22/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TJXTriangle, symmetrical      03/31/201604/28/2016Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/21/2016 and 04/28/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $114.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.14 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.41%
Volume: 2,028,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,107,045 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/01/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $3.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.25 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.78%
Volume: 20,221,200 shares. 3 month avg: 15,668,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/24/2016 to 04/22/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 615 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $9.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.73 or 20.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.50%
Volume: 5,449,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,849,846 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/05/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bemis Co Inc (BMS)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $50.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.84 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.31%
Volume: 2,436,700 shares. 3 month avg: 853,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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CEB Inc (CEB)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $63.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.37 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.23%
Volume: 306,000 shares. 3 month avg: 255,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/26/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Centene Corp (CNC)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $63.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.08 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.33%
Volume: 2,710,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,076,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $60.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.36 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.85%
Volume: 997,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,124,723 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $11.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.82 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.56%
Volume: 371,800 shares. 3 month avg: 496,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/04/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 66 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $30.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.69 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.55%
Volume: 1,101,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/23/2016 to 04/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $43.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.66 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.60%
Volume: 159,000 shares. 3 month avg: 176,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/07/2016 to 04/26/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $32.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.56 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.99%
Volume: 188,800 shares. 3 month avg: 285,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/21/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $132.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $138.96 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.36%
Volume: 5,551,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,084,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/04/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $32.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.67 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.10%
Volume: 15,600 shares. 3 month avg: 19,911 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/31/2016 to 04/27/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $12.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.99 or 16.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.75%
Volume: 20,427,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,556,843 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/28/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 619 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $11.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.03 or 27.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -36.69%
Volume: 2,257,300 shares. 3 month avg: 510,677 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/28/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $26.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.87 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.67%
Volume: 277,000 shares. 3 month avg: 377,889 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $42.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.81 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.21%
Volume: 8,654,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,882,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/10/2016 to 04/22/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/11/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/12/2016 and a 38% chance by 08/11/2016.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $33.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.38 or 17.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.16%
Volume: 16,748,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,571,448 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $151.44
1 Month avg volatility: $4.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.78 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.02%
Volume: 1,539,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,278,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/11/2016 to 04/18/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $31.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.87 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.37%
Volume: 3,181,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,070,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/01/2016 to 04/22/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 633
4/28/16 close: $76.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.76 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.43%
Volume: 1,691,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,161,562 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/31/2016 to 04/28/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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