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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 02/22/2017
20,776 32.60 0.2%
9,449 -83.20 -0.9%
682 2.42 0.4%
5,861 -5.32 -0.1%
2,363 -2.56 -0.1%
YTD
5.1%
4.5%
3.4%
8.9%
5.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 02/14/2017
21,150 or 20,000 by 03/15/2017
8,800 or 9,700 by 03/01/2017
700 or 640 by 03/01/2017
5,950 or 5,650 by 03/01/2017
2,400 or 2,260 by 03/01/2017
Indus strength: None YTD
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Thursday 2/23/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -5.32 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 560 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 308 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 252 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 121/212 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/80 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index has followed an upward trend as the thin red line shows.

A rectangle top appears, which I show outlined in green. The index could continue to move sideways.

However, I was watching my program create the chart pattern indicator. It showed a red vertical bar (bearish). It disappeared but the indicator has taken a steep dip today. That could change easily enough if we have a strong rise posted by the market. But it signals a warning that weakness is underlying this sideways move.

The above probabilities suggests a higher close on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,424.74    
 Monthly S1  5,642.69  217.94   
 Weekly S2  5,726.14  83.46   
 Monthly Pivot  5,740.63  14.49   
 Weekly S1  5,793.39  52.75   
 Weekly Pivot  5,815.98  22.60   
 Daily S2  5,841.64  25.66   
 Low  5,848.28  6.64   
 Daily S1  5,851.14  2.86   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,854.44  3.31   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,856.35  1.90   
 Open  5,857.56  1.21   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,857.77  0.21   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,858.25  0.48   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,860.63  2.38   
 High  5,864.41  3.78   
 Daily R1  5,867.27  2.86   
 Daily R2  5,873.90  6.64   
 Weekly R1  5,883.23  9.32   
 Weekly R2  5,905.82  22.60   
 Monthly R1  5,958.58  52.75   
 Monthly R2  6,056.52  97.95   

Wednesday 2/22/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This picture of the indicator is similar to the one last week.

The market continues to rise and the indicator climbs, too. I don't see any hint of things changing.

I guess that the only concern I have is that the Dow is rising too fast. The slope is too steep and that suggests a retrace is coming. And yes, I know all about the aspect ratio. If you move the vertical right axis, you'll change the slope of the lines. Regardless, the slope is too steep to be sustainable over the long term.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 59% on 02/23/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 10% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 28% on 02/23/2016.

Again, the lines did not show any net movement from a week ago. It's in a holding pattern.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/21/17. A look at Washington's Birthday

Washington's birthday is Monday, a market holiday.

How does the market perform before and after the holiday?

Price closes higher 39.2% of the time the trading day before Washington's birthday. In other words, they close lower. It's the worst performing pre-holiday result of the nine holidays studied.

After the holiday, the Dow closes up 50.7% of the time. That's random.

In a bear market, Washington's birthday shows the worst post-holiday performance with price closing up just 28.8% of the time.

For more information, click to link and read the research.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.