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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/17/2015
17,826 -279.47 -1.5%
8,648 -60.86 -0.7%
583 -2.01 -0.3%
4,932 -75.98 -1.5%
2,081 -23.81 -1.1%
YTD
0.0%
-5.4%
-5.6%
4.1%
1.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/14/2015
18,300 or 17,500 by 05/01/2015
9,000 or 8,200 by 05/01/2015
615 or 565 by 05/01/2015
5,100 or 4,800 by 05/01/2015
2,150 or 2,025 by 05/01/2015
Mutt Losers: None YTD

  Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You and you alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Monday 4/20/15. S&P Symmetrical Triangle

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

There is not much to see. The chart shows a symmetrical triangle outlined in red. The breakout from this chart pattern is often upward (54% of the time, so it's random).

My concern is that this could breakout downward. Why?

The chart pattern indicator flipped to bearish several days ago and that suggests underlying weakness in the market.

If it does breakout downward, I don't expect a large decline, but it could easily reach 2000.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 80.61 points.
Tuesday: Up 59.66 points.
Wednesday: Up 75.91 points.
Thursday: Down 6.84 points.
Friday: Down 279.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 231.35 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 64.17 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 20.88 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 18,288.63 on 03/02/2015.
     4.6% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 5,042.14 on 03/20/2015.
     8.1% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.8% down from the high of 2,119.59 on 02/25/2015.
     5.1% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 WCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
New home sales10:00 ThC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 FBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/17/2015, the CPI had:

103 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
271 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.9%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,538  17,682  17,892  18,036  18,246 
Weekly  17,494  17,660  17,915  18,081  18,335 
Monthly  17,244  17,535  17,871  18,162  18,497 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,055  2,068  2,085  2,098  2,116 
Weekly  2,049  2,065  2,088  2,105  2,128 
Monthly  2,005  2,043  2,079  2,117  2,153 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,878  4,905  4,939  4,966  5,001 
Weekly  4,844  4,888  4,956  5,000  5,068 
Monthly  4,717  4,824  4,933  5,041  5,150 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 53.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 29.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
36Triangle, symmetrical
10Triangle, descending
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
9Triangle, ascending
8Rising wedge
6Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Rectangle top
5Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
4Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Human Resources1. Human Resources
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Drug3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Biotechnology4. Drug
5. Homebuilding5. Homebuilding
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Metal Fabricating
51. Metal Fabricating51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Short ETFs
54. Short ETFs54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Saturday 4/18/15. Sell in May and Go Away?

Should you sell your stocks in May and go away? And if so, for how long?

I took at look at answering these questions with my own stocks. You can read what I found at the link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/17/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 23 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISTriangle, symmetrical      03/03/201504/15/2015Semiconductor
ALKFalling wedge      03/10/201504/16/2015Air Transport
AEPTriangle, symmetrical      03/13/201504/16/2015Electric Utility (Central)
ANIKTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201504/16/2015Biotechnology
ATRTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201504/16/2015Packaging and Container
BMSBroadening wedge, descending      03/18/201504/10/2015Packaging and Container
BBYHead-and-shoulders top      02/19/201504/10/2015Retail (Special Lines)
BLDRFlag, high and tight      03/11/201504/14/2015Retail Building Supply
CRLTriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201504/16/2015Biotechnology
CLNEScallop, ascending      02/27/201504/16/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
CNOTriangle, symmetrical      04/02/201504/16/2015Insurance (Diversified)
CLTriangle, symmetrical      03/24/201504/16/2015Household Products
CREEHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/27/201504/14/2015Semiconductor
^DJUTriangle, ascending      03/11/201504/15/2015None
ELTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/201504/16/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLIRTriangle, descending      03/26/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
GDHead-and-shoulders top      03/20/201504/10/2015Aerospace/Defense
GFFTriangle, ascending      03/20/201504/13/2015Building Materials
HHSTriangle, descending      01/30/201504/15/2015Advertising
HLTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/201504/14/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
HONTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
IEXRising wedge      03/18/201504/16/2015Machinery
KALUTriangle, ascending      02/24/201504/16/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
LAMRRising wedge      03/05/201504/16/2015Advertising
MWWRectangle top      03/09/201504/16/2015Advertising
NKETriangle, symmetrical      03/26/201504/16/2015Shoe
PKEFalling wedge      03/24/201504/16/2015Chemical (Specialty)
TETriangle, descending      03/23/201504/16/2015Electric Utility (East)
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      03/31/201504/16/2015Precision Instrument
TREXChannel      01/02/201504/16/2015Building Materials
UNMTriangle, symmetrical      03/06/201504/16/2015Insurance (Diversified)
PAYTriangle, ascending      02/20/201504/16/2015Computer Software and Svcs
ITARoof, inverted      02/23/201504/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
TURHorn top      03/23/201504/06/2015Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/09/2015 and 04/16/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $25.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.05 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.73%
Volume: 219,000 shares. 3 month avg: 379,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/03/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $63.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.51 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.26%
Volume: 1,599,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,519,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/10/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $55.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.60 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.02%
Volume: 2,762,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,793,722 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $40.69
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.10 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.12%
Volume: 94,000 shares. 3 month avg: 152,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $63.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.32 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.73%
Volume: 380,500 shares. 3 month avg: 326,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bemis Co Inc (BMS)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.45 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.90%
Volume: 899,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,073,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $37.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.19 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.59%
Volume: 3,607,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,859,662 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $13.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.51 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 102.47%
Volume: 2,275,800 shares. 3 month avg: 749,603 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Charles River Labs Intl (CRL)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $78.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.01 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.94%
Volume: 223,500 shares. 3 month avg: 495,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $7.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.28 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 43.44%
Volume: 2,777,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 02/27/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $17.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.91 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.02%
Volume: 1,062,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,758,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/02/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $70.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.88 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.29%
Volume: 2,166,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,099,095 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $35.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.03 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.35%
Volume: 1,245,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,818,111 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/27/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/16/15 close: $585.29
1 Month avg volatility: $8.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $564.32 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.31%
Volume: 12,019,500 shares. 3 month avg: 13,349,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/11/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $83.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.47 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.13%
Volume: 821,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,890,545 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $30.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.26 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.17%
Volume: 521,900 shares. 3 month avg: 681,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $133.15
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $137.91 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.25%
Volume: 1,352,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,515,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/10/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $17.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.53 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.38%
Volume: 216,700 shares. 3 month avg: 176,957 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/13/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $7.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.24 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.39%
Volume: 169,600 shares. 3 month avg: 149,282 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/30/2015 to 04/15/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $3.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.95 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.13%
Volume: 3,813,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,211,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2015 to 04/14/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $103.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.21 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.00%
Volume: 3,349,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,911,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Idex Corp (IEX)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $76.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.62 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.36%
Volume: 246,200 shares. 3 month avg: 344,577 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/18/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $77.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.51 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.99%
Volume: 195,100 shares. 3 month avg: 303,826 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $60.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.91 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.42%
Volume: 533,400 shares. 3 month avg: 849,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/05/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $6.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.02 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.48%
Volume: 895,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,803,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/09/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $99.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.55 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.90%
Volume: 2,048,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,691,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $21.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.09 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.20%
Volume: 99,900 shares. 3 month avg: 68,262 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/24/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $19.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.17 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.32%
Volume: 1,234,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,087,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $132.49
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $128.27 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.75%
Volume: 1,547,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,693,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/31/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $51.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.38 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.24%
Volume: 208,000 shares. 3 month avg: 282,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/02/2015 to 04/16/2015

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $34.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.74 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.44%
Volume: 1,059,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,610,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/06/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $35.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.46 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.63%
Volume: 662,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,487,965 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/20/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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DJ US Aerospace and defense (ITA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $124.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.38 or 2.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.54%
Volume: 23,600 shares. 3 month avg: 72,480 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/23/2015 to 04/16/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 583
4/16/15 close: $46.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.93 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.17%
Volume: 683,600 shares. 3 month avg: 454,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 04/06/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.