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Written and copyright © 2012 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Tuesday 5/29/12. Trading Tuesday: Dow
The index dropped by -0.6% or -74.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 627 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 324 occasions.
Average loss was -0.8% on 303 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 25/40 or 62.5% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 6/7 or 85.7% of the time.
I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's trading.
A well-shaped symmetrical triangle (A) appears early in the session with a downward breakout. The height of the triangle projected downward from the
breakout fulfilled the measure rule but it took a while for the index to drop that far.
Late in the session, a head-and-shoulders bottom makes an appearance. This is not a valid chart pattern yet because the index has not closed above
the blue neckline (B).
Since I am writing this on Saturday morning, much can happen by Tuesday's open. I expect a higher close. I think that the index should pull back to the double top formed in
March through May (daily scale), taking the index back to near 12,800 (over several days). A move up could start a multi-day rally, mirroring the straight-line drop from Wednesday through
Friday a week ago (5 min scale).
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2012 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 11,674.64 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 12,064.73 | 390.10 |
|
| Weekly S2 | 12,183.10 | 118.37 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 12,318.97 | 135.86 |
|
| Daily S2 | 12,358.24 | 39.27 |
|
| Daily S1 | 12,406.53 | 48.30 |
|
| Low | 12,421.53 | 15.00 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 12,447.46 | 25.93 |
|
| Close | 12,454.83 | 7.37 |
Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 12,464.16 | 9.33 |
Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close. |
| Daily Pivot | 12,469.83 | 5.67 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 12,477.33 | 7.50 |
Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 12,490.49 | 13.17 |
|
| Daily R1 | 12,518.12 | 27.63 |
|
| Open | 12,530.74 | 12.62 |
|
| High | 12,533.12 | 2.38 |
Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
| Daily R2 | 12,581.42 | 48.30 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 12,583.33 | 1.91 |
Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
| Monthly Pivot | 12,701.70 | 118.37 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 12,711.82 | 10.13 |
Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
| Monthly R1 | 13,091.79 | 379.97 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 13,728.76 | 636.96 |
|
Friday 5/25/12. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms) out of 635 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/16/2012 and 05/24/2012. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Acxiom Corp (ACXM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $13.28
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $12.31 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.76%
Volume: 417,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 327,651 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/03/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 287 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $12.38
1 Month average volatility: $0.28. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $11.64 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.56%
Volume: 5,722,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,434,752 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 04/23/2012 to 05/18/2012
Performance rank: 7 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.
Anadigics Inc (ANAD)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $1.97
1 Month average volatility: $0.09. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $1.76 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.05%
Volume: 257,200 shares
3 month avg volume: 416,708 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 03/06/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 20 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 32%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Throwbacks occur 56% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 70% of the time.
Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $46.64
1 Month average volatility: $1.28. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $42.74 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.31%
Volume: 292,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 406,762 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/23/2012 to 05/18/2012
Performance rank: 10 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $20.03
1 Month average volatility: $0.36. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $19.10 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.30%
Volume: 2,470,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 4,677,840 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/01/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dell Inc. (DELL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $12.45
1 Month average volatility: $0.34. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $11.68 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.90%
Volume: 29,705,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 18,436,326 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 05/23/2012 to 05/23/2012
Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $20.49
1 Month average volatility: $0.29. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $19.68 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.84%
Volume: 207,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 204,354 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/08/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $90.02
1 Month average volatility: $1.70. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $93.80 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.80%
Volume: 2,244,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,148,374 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/10/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 10 out of 21. Breakout is downward 64% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 54% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 54% of the time.
Great Plains Energy (GXP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 454 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $19.98
1 Month average volatility: $0.29. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $20.57 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.26%
Volume: 1,185,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,095,755 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 04/02/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $27.18
1 Month average volatility: $0.35. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $27.93 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.64%
Volume: 752,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 430,728 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/02/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 18 out of 21. Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.
Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $22.66
1 Month average volatility: $1.00. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $24.85 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 50.97%
Volume: 1,580,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,523,788 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/30/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 7 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 76% of the time.
Kimball International, Inc. (KBALB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 78 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $6.84
1 Month average volatility: $0.21. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $6.39 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.91%
Volume: 56,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 65,163 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/27/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 447 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $64.85
1 Month average volatility: $1.16. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $60.69 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.48%
Volume: 62,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 73,452 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/30/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $27.96
1 Month average volatility: $0.45. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $26.65 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.61%
Volume: 427,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 486,186 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 04/13/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 20 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 32%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Throwbacks occur 56% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 70% of the time.
Patriot Coal Corp (PCX)
Industry: Coal
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 627 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $2.42
1 Month average volatility: $0.45. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $1.43 or 41.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -71.43%
Volume: 9,850,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 9,031,749 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 05/22/2012 to 05/22/2012
Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 75 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $13.16
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $12.09 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.94%
Volume: 478,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 549,320 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/10/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 23 out of 23. Breakout is upward 51% of the time. Average rise: 28%. Break-even failure rate: 19%. Throwbacks occur 52% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 63% of the time.
Ryland Group, Inc (RYL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $23.04
1 Month average volatility: $1.03. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $25.31 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.19%
Volume: 1,801,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,005,678 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/30/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 18 out of 21. Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.
Sigma-Aldrich Corp (SIAL)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 160 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $71.60
1 Month average volatility: $1.40. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $67.69 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.63%
Volume: 444,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 572,195 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/22/2012 to 05/17/2012
Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $45.60
1 Month average volatility: $0.39. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $44.55 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.49%
Volume: 2,589,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 4,213,995 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/03/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
Stancorp Financial Group Inc (SFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $35.28
1 Month average volatility: $0.76. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $33.37 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.00%
Volume: 189,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 237,938 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/10/2012 to 05/24/2012
Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $6.68
1 Month average volatility: $0.19. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $7.09 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.91%
Volume: 62,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 122,009 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/09/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
Surmodics, Inc (SRDX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $14.58
1 Month average volatility: $0.43. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $15.43 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.55%
Volume: 69,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 41,795 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Thursday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 02/23/2012 to 05/24/2012
Performance rank: 10 out of 21. Breakout is downward 64% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 54% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 54% of the time.
Titanium Metals Corp (TIE)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $12.14
1 Month average volatility: $0.38. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $11.19 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.96%
Volume: 2,196,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,756,120 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 03/07/2012 to 05/18/2012
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 59% of the time.
MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 627
Close as of 05/24/2012: $65.87
1 Month average volatility: $0.82. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $68.22 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.58%
Volume: 235,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 328,695 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2012 to 05/17/2012
Performance rank: 18 out of 21. Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.
Thursday 5/24/12. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq
The index climbed by 0.4% or 11.04 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 507 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.8% on 328 occasions.
Average loss was -0.8% on 179 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 18/28 or 64.3% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 11/22 or 50.0% of the time.
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Wednesday's trading.
A head-and-shoulders bottom appears at LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). The traditional buy signal occurs at A when price closes above
the neckline (red line). When the neckline slopes upward, I prefer to enter at B, a close above the blue line.
Either way, the market moved far enough to reach the measure rule price target and then some.
Looking ahead to Thursday's close, what do I see? Just before the close, the index turned down. That is worrisome.
An important economic report comes out before the open which may influence the opening bias. Of course, events in Europe will likely take center stage until the June 17 meltdown
of their financial system. Iran is playing chicken and hoping that Israel won't run them over with a flying tank.
These are interesting times.
The index is hanging on a small knot of support in January at 2800. Thus, I'm looking for the bounce to continue. Think of it as a pullback that could return the index to 2900 to 2950
in the coming weeks. I am expecting a higher close tomorrow (Thursday). That is in line with the probabilities above.
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2012 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 2,592.37 | | |
| Weekly S2 | 2,695.52 | 103.15 |
|
| Monthly S1 | 2,721.25 | 25.73 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 2,772.82 | 51.57 |
|
| Daily S2 | 2,773.81 | 0.99 |
Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1. |
| Low | 2,795.50 | 21.69 |
|
| Daily S1 | 2,811.96 | 16.46 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 2,818.36 | 6.40 |
|
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 2,825.43 | 7.06 |
|
| Open | 2,832.17 | 6.74 |
|
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 2,832.49 | 0.32 |
Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open. |
| Daily Pivot | 2,833.66 | 1.17 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
| Close | 2,850.12 | 16.46 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 2,851.75 | 1.63 |
Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close. |
| High | 2,855.35 | 3.60 |
Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot. |
| Daily R1 | 2,871.81 | 16.46 |
|
| Daily R2 | 2,893.51 | 21.69 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 2,903.32 | 9.82 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 2,929.05 | 25.73 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 3,007.98 | 78.93 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 3,032.20 | 24.22 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 3,214.27 | 182.08 |
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Written and copyright © 2012 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
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