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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 02/11/2016
15,660 -254.56 -1.6%
6,883 -100.45 -1.4%
614 -11.99 -1.9%
4,267 -16.75 -0.4%
1,829 -22.78 -1.2%
YTD
-10.1%
-8.3%
6.3%
-14.8%
-10.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 01/29/2016
16,700 or 15,000 by 02/15/2016
7,300 or 6,300 by 02/15/2016
640 or 570 by 02/15/2016
4,850 or 4,300 by 02/15/2016
2,000 or 1,800 by 02/15/2016
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD
Wilder RSI: -5.0%

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Friday 2/12/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 647 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 20 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016IT Services
AFGPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BZHDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Homebuilding
BGDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Food Processing
CTSHPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016IT Services
CSCDead-cat bounce      02/10/201602/10/2016Computer Software and Svcs
CTSPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Electronics
DRQPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RDENDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
EMCTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/201602/11/2016Computers and Peripherals
EGNPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
ESLDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Precision Instrument
FFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/29/201602/10/2016Insurance (Life)
BGCDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Computers and Peripherals
GNWDead-cat bounce      02/05/201602/05/2016Insurance (Life)
HGGChannel      01/11/201602/11/2016Retail (Special Lines)
INCYDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Drug
MRKChannel      12/03/201502/11/2016Drug
MWWDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Advertising
MLIChannel      01/19/201602/11/2016Metal Fabricating
MYLDead-cat bounce      02/11/201602/11/2016Drug
OTEXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/01/201502/09/2016E-Commerce
RTNTriangle, ascending      01/29/201602/10/2016Aerospace/Defense
SMTCPipe top      02/01/201602/01/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TKRFlag      02/05/201602/11/2016Metal Fabricating
TGRising wedge      01/14/201602/09/2016Chemical (Specialty)
VFCPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Apparel
XLNXPipe top      01/25/201602/01/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SDSPipe bottom      01/25/201602/01/2016Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/04/2016 and 02/11/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $93.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.96 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.59%
Volume: 4,202,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,057,909 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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American Financial Group (AFG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $65.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.42 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.63%
Volume: 317,300 shares. 3 month avg: 351,023 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 623 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $6.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.36 or 28.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.26%
Volume: 1,615,400 shares. 3 month avg: 954,185 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $47.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.82 or 27.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.01%
Volume: 5,527,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,367,926 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $52.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.45 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.18%
Volume: 5,627,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,507,328 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 622 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $27.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.00 or 10.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.23%
Volume: 4,211,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,077,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/10/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $13.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.61 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.21%
Volume: 54,000 shares. 3 month avg: 90,943 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $49.90
1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.86 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.75%
Volume: 948,400 shares. 3 month avg: 502,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Elizabeth Arden Inc (RDEN)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $5.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.18 or 23.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -41.31%
Volume: 160,300 shares. 3 month avg: 148,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.02 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.92%
Volume: 21,624,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,417,529 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/19/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 608 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.67 or 24.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.81%
Volume: 3,995,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,426,626 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $52.52
1 Month avg volatility: $3.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.66 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.16%
Volume: 352,000 shares. 3 month avg: 301,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $56.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.52 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.85%
Volume: 46,600 shares. 3 month avg: 38,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/29/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $6.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.28 or 55.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -50.86%
Volume: 2,348,000 shares. 3 month avg: 526,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 630 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $1.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.22 or 38.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.84%
Volume: 8,936,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,966,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/05/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 627 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $1.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.13 or 26.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.20%
Volume: 176,600 shares. 3 month avg: 171,546 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/06/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/06/2016 and a 38% chance by 07/06/2016.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $65.51
1 Month avg volatility: $6.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.13 or 20.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.59%
Volume: 15,389,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,574 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $48.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.07 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.52%
Volume: 11,086,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,533,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/03/2015 to 02/11/2016

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 626 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $2.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.32 or 59.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -52.53%
Volume: 10,503,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,324,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $25.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.43 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.05%
Volume: 326,000 shares. 3 month avg: 220,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/19/2016 to 02/11/2016

Top

Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $41.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.79 or 17.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.40%
Volume: 33,288,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,266,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/11/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $46.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.86 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.46%
Volume: 492,700 shares. 3 month avg: 283,212 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/01/2015 to 02/09/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $122.18
1 Month avg volatility: $3.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.87 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.89%
Volume: 3,912,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,059,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/29/2016 to 02/10/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $15.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.47 or 15.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.70%
Volume: 310,200 shares. 3 month avg: 555,788 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/01/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $28.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.30 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.71%
Volume: 965,300 shares. 3 month avg: 847,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/05/2016 to 02/11/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $12.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.71 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.96%
Volume: 25,600 shares. 3 month avg: 89,263 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/14/2016 to 02/09/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $56.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.73 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.74%
Volume: 2,660,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,943,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $47.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.30 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.60%
Volume: 3,262,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,919,963 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 639
2/11/16 close: $24.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.30 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.48%
Volume: 26,110,600 shares. 3 month avg: 14,929,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/25/2016 to 02/01/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 2/11/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.3% or 14.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 596 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 327 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 269 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/169 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/72 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line shows support. I drew that by connecting the bottoms of recent price movement in the index.

The green line shows overhead resistance, drawn connecting the peaks.

Of the two lines, the green one is more important. Why? Because it is longer and has more touches.

It could be that the index drops in the morning but rebounds thereafter. If the index opens higher, then that could signal a move higher that will last and punch through the top trendline.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,894.56    
 Monthly S1  4,089.08  194.51   
 Weekly S2  4,137.07  47.99   
 Weekly S1  4,210.33  73.26   
 Daily S2  4,222.42  12.09   
 Daily S1  4,253.01  30.58   
 Low  4,280.73  27.72   
 Close  4,283.59  2.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  4,311.31  27.72   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,314.69  3.37   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,318.28  3.59   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,325.17  6.90   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,335.66  10.49   
 Daily R1  4,341.90  6.23   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  4,369.62  27.72   
 Daily R2  4,400.20  30.58   
 Weekly Pivot  4,423.63  23.43   
 Weekly R1  4,496.89  73.26   
 Monthly Pivot  4,507.90  11.01   
 Monthly R1  4,702.42  194.51   
 Weekly R2  4,710.19  7.77   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  5,121.24  411.05   

Wednesday 2/10/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator flipped to red, bearish, a few day ago.

If you can see the indicator line, it's above zero, suggesting that there is more room for the index to drop.

All of this could mean that we'll see the index drop to form an unconfirmed double bottom. Unconfirmed means the index still needs to rise above the peak between the two bottoms.

If you look at the Nasdaq composite, you'll see that it already has moved below where the second bottom should reside. So there is weakness out there.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 67% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 60%.
The fewest was 19% on 04/15/2015.
And the most was 68% on 01/20/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 544 stocks in my database are down an average of 31% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 28%.
The peak was 12% on 02/24/2015.
And the bottom was 31% on 01/20/2016.

Notice that the above numbers this week are worse than they were last week.

In other words, your investment portfolio likely lost money in the past week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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