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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/29/2015
17,596 -350.33 -2.0%
8,081 -161.64 -2.0%
552 -2.95 -0.5%
4,958 -122.04 -2.4%
2,058 -43.85 -2.1%
YTD
-1.3%
-11.6%
-10.7%
4.7%
-0.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/15/2015
18,260 or 17,400 by 07/01/2015
8,660 or 8,092 by 07/01/2015
590 or 545 by 07/01/2015
5,170 or 4,890 by 07/01/2015
2,130 or 2,035 by 07/01/2015
Wilder RSI: -2.5%

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Tuesday 6/30/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -2.0% or -350.33 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 81 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 38 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 43 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 95/159 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/46 or 56.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

By now you probably have heard of the impending default of Greece. I wanted to know how they got there. The short answer is that they had 5 years to simplify their tax system and make other reforms but didn't do it. The money is gone and so is the time.

Today was one of those days that hurt. My portfolio dropped more than I liked to see. In the coming days, more turmoil will probably rock the markets. That will be true until after this Sunday when the people of Greece vote on how to proceed. My guess is the effects of a pending default and exit from the Eurozone won't be resolved quickly (meaning it won't end on Sunday, but could take weeks. That's a guess, of course).

The chart shows the index following a trendline down (red). It might bounce off that line but the trajectory could still be down. You might view this episode as a buying opportunity.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,272.10    
 Daily S2  17,361.69  89.59   
 Monthly S1  17,434.22  72.53   
 Daily S1  17,479.02  44.80   
 Low  17,590.55  111.53   
 Weekly S2  17,593.39  2.84   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  17,594.87  1.48   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Close  17,596.35  1.48   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  17,707.88  111.53   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,722.79  14.91   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,763.64  40.85   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,804.50  40.85   
 Daily R1  17,825.21  20.71   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  17,860.55  35.34   
 Weekly Pivot  17,891.84  31.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  17,893.32  1.48   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  17,936.74  43.42   
 High  17,936.74  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly R1  18,022.67  85.93   
 Daily R2  18,054.07  31.40   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,190.29  136.22   
 Monthly R2  18,449.00  258.71   

Monday 6/29/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I drew two red lines that follow an up-sloping channel.

In the early stages of this channel, the index bounces between them. The bottom of that channel shows support even to this day.

But the blue line shows better resistance of the index recently.

The trend shown suggests the index will head toward the bottom red line before rebounding. A cause for this would be the Greece dilemma, them failing to make a deal.

Alternatively, if that problem is solved, look for the index to shoot to the top line.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 103.83 points.
Tuesday: Up 24.29 points.
Wednesday: Down 178 points.
Thursday: Down 75.71 points.
Friday: Up 56.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 69.27 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 36.49 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 8.5 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.2% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     5.3% up from the low of 17,037.76 on 02/02/2015.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 5,164.36 on 06/24/2015.
     11.3% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.1% up from the low of 1,980.90 on 02/02/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 TBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Construction spending10:00 WDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Auto & truck sales2:00 WC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
4 Employment reports8:30 ThANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/26/2015, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
14 bullish patterns,
275 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 56.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,830  17,888  17,951  18,009  18,072 
Weekly  17,710  17,828  18,009  18,127  18,307 
Monthly  17,389  17,668  17,977  18,256  18,566 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,088  2,095  2,102  2,108  2,115 
Weekly  2,074  2,088  2,109  2,122  2,143 
Monthly  2,042  2,072  2,102  2,132  2,162 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,027  5,054  5,088  5,114  5,148 
Weekly  4,998  5,039  5,102  5,143  5,205 
Monthly  4,883  4,982  5,073  5,172  5,263 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 19.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.2%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 31.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Triangle, symmetrical
14Channel
8Triangle, descending
6Rectangle top
6Broadening bottom
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Pipe bottom
6Broadening top
5Falling wedge
4Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Human Resources
3. Human Resources3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Homebuilding5. Biotechnology
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Short ETFs
52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/26/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Air Transport
ASHBroadening wedge, descending      05/20/201506/22/2015Chemical (Basic)
CHDTriangle, symmetrical      05/07/201506/25/2015Household Products
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201506/25/2015Electric Utility (Central)
^DJTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/03/201506/23/2015None
EXPDTriangle, symmetrical      03/23/201506/23/2015Air Transport
HSCRectangle bottom      02/18/201506/25/2015Diversified Co.
HUBGTriple top      05/19/201506/22/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBLUPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Air Transport
KBALBroadening top      06/02/201506/24/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
MWWBroadening bottom      05/14/201506/22/2015Advertising
MSChannel      03/26/201506/24/2015Securities Brokerage
NUSTriangle, descending      05/28/201506/22/2015Household Products
NVDATriangle, symmetrical      05/26/201506/25/2015Semiconductor
PCLNFalling wedge      05/12/201506/25/2015Internet
SCCOBroadening bottom      06/02/201506/23/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
EWCTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/201506/25/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWIBroadening top      05/12/201506/22/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
TURPipe bottom      06/08/201506/15/2015Long ETFs
PPATriangle, symmetrical      04/13/201506/25/2015Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/18/2015 and 06/25/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $65.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.25 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.49%
Volume: 1,273,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,311,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 223 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $125.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.66 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.77%
Volume: 410,200 shares. 3 month avg: 621,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/20/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $82.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.89 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.08%
Volume: 333,200 shares. 3 month avg: 581,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/07/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 329 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $54.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.52 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.37%
Volume: 223,000 shares. 3 month avg: 288,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
6/25/15 close: $8,239.58
1 Month avg volatility: $109.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,550.30 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.85%
Volume: 13,776,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,966,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/03/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $46.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.20 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.04%
Volume: 741,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,186,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/23/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $16.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.75 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.65%
Volume: 875,900 shares. 3 month avg: 567,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $41.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.47 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.64%
Volume: 320,900 shares. 3 month avg: 284,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 05/19/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $21.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.83 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.45%
Volume: 6,424,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,143,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $11.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.89 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.47%
Volume: 231,400 shares. 3 month avg: 137,843 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/02/2015 to 06/24/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $6.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.06 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.86%
Volume: 1,423,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,081,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/14/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Morgan Stanley (MS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $39.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.01 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.08%
Volume: 8,911,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,619,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/26/2015 to 06/24/2015

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $48.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.26 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.46%
Volume: 484,200 shares. 3 month avg: 834,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/28/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $21.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.00 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.59%
Volume: 8,760,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,087,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Priceline.com (PCLN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $1,149.19
1 Month avg volatility: $16.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,116.52 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.79%
Volume: 334,800 shares. 3 month avg: 585,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/12/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $30.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.05 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.55%
Volume: 1,186,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/02/2015 to 06/23/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI Canada Index (EWC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $27.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.99 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.37%
Volume: 2,496,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,478,471 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $15.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.21 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.15%
Volume: 1,392,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,086,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/12/2015 to 06/22/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $46.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.67 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.91%
Volume: 122,100 shares. 3 month avg: 341,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/08/2015 to 06/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 274 out of 581
6/25/15 close: $36.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.49 or 1.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.00%
Volume: 20,400 shares. 3 month avg: 43,122 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/13/2015 to 06/25/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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