Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/24/2024
  Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%  
  Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%  
YTD
 +2.0%  
-5.2%  
 +1.3%  
 +4.7%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/24/2024
  Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%  
  Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%  
YTD
 +2.0%  
-5.2%  
 +1.3%  
 +4.7%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

Recent Headlines

Picture of 'Training Miles' book. New Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

Older Headlines

Archives


Thursday 4/25/24. Cryptocurrency: Ethereum (ETH-USD)

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.1% or 16.11 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 748 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 416 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 332 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 275/488 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

Let's go through it by the letters.

At A, we see a strong uptrend, what I call a straight-line run up. There are few pauses along the way in a breath-taking rise.

At B, we see a messy retrace. Price can't decide on a direction so it falls and retraces. Rinse. Repeat.

At C, we see a potential double bottom. It hasn't confirmed as a valid double bottom because the currency hasn't closed above line D, which is the highest peak between the two bottoms. If the double bottom confirms, then look for the currency to rise. Until then, there's a substantial risk that it'll tumble (like 44% or something like that).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AFL, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AEL, AME, AMN, APH, ANIK, APA, ATO, BSET, BSX, BRC, BMY, CACI, CDNS, CPB, CNP, CHD, CINF, CLF, CMTL, COTY, CR, CCK, DECK, XRAY, DFS, ECL, EL, EG, EVH, FAST, FE, GME, GIS, HQY, HP, HUM, JBHT, HURC, IDA, NSP, JBLU, K, LDOS, LLY, LPLA, MANH, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, MS, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMC, ASGN, ON, OXM, PDCO, PCG, PG, PEG, PSTG, RL, RGA, RCKY, RGLD, SCCO, TDY, TXT, UGI, UNM, VEEV, WRB, WSO, WU, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IHE, FXI, EWK, EWH, EWM, PHO, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,508.72    
 Weekly S2  14,671.11  162.39   
 Monthly S1  15,110.73  439.62   
 Weekly S1  15,191.93  81.20   
 Daily S2  15,524.17  332.24   
 Daily S1  15,618.46  94.29   
 Low  15,634.44  15.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,712.58  78.14   
 Close  15,712.75  0.17   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  15,728.73  15.98   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,736.72  7.99   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  15,743.60  6.88   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,760.86  17.26   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  15,805.60  44.74   
 Daily R1  15,823.02  17.42   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  15,824.80  1.78   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  15,839.00  14.20   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  15,933.29  94.29   
 Weekly R1  16,264.42  331.13   
 Monthly R1  16,426.81  162.39   
 Weekly R2  16,816.09  389.28   
 Monthly R2  17,140.88  324.79   

Wednesday 4/24/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish today (Tuesday, after the close). The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows this. Two bands of neutral signal preceded the green bar.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This chart shows how the CPI has changed over time. The thin green line shows the timing of the CPI reaching bottom (bearish) before heading higher.

A reading of 35 is the separator between bearish and neutral. Sixty-five is the threshold to turn a neutral signal bullish. Currently, the CPI is 77.1.

Signals can change for up to a week, so that's a factor. My guess is that yes, the S&P 500 has turned bullish, that the retrace is over.

Notice that from November to March, how the CPI hugged the upper portion of the 0 to 100 range. Compare that to the July to November line, where it hugged zero (the bottom of the range).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 116 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, ACIW, AFL, ALL, AEE, AEL, AFG, APA, ASH, BAX, BBY, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BFH, BMY, BRKR, CACI, CNP, CI, CINF, CLF, CNA, CL, CMCO, COTY, CRH, FANG, DFS, D, DUK, EIX, EL, EG, FDS, FICO, FISV, FNV, GIS, HBI, HE, HQY, HOLX, HUBG, HURC, JAZZ, JBLU, KELYA, KMB, LZB, LANC, L, MCHX, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, MS, MLI, NFG, NUS, ASGN, OR, OXM, PKG, PANW, PCG, POR, PPL, PG, QTWO, DGX, RLI, SAND, SRE, SHW, SO, SCCO, SNPS, TMO, UHAL, VFC, VMI, VMC, WRB, WMT, WU, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, FXL, FXI, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWP, EWL, THD, PBE, PHO, XLP. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

Top


Tuesday 4/23/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.7% or 253.58 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 708 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 387 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 321 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 284/518 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/114 or 47.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring head-and-shoulders, complex bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, ALL, AMZN, AEE, APA, ACGL, AVY, BECN, BBY, BMRN, CBT, CACI, CLS, CNP, CLNE, CNA, GLW, CSGP, DSGR, EVRG, FAST, FORM, FDP, FRD, GGG, HL, HSII, HWM, HURC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, K, KMT, KMB, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, RAMP, LPLA, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MRCY, MU, MUR, NFG, NOV, NKE, NWPX, ASGN, OTEX, POR, PG, DGX, NOW, STR, SKX, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TKR, RIG, UNM, VLO, WLK, WOLF, WWW, IEZ, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, IXC, IGE, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, XRT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,302.71    
 Monthly S1  37,271.34  968.64   
 Weekly S2  37,304.20  32.86   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  37,761.98  457.78   
 Weekly S1  37,772.09  10.11   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  37,985.07  212.98   
 Daily S1  38,000.98  15.91   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  38,079.45  78.47   
 Open  38,116.89  37.44   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,161.59  44.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,216.11  54.52   
 Daily Pivot  38,224.07  7.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  38,239.98  15.91   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,270.64  30.66   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  38,447.16  176.52   
 Daily R1  38,463.07  15.91   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  38,547.34  84.27   
 Monthly Pivot  38,580.20  32.86   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  38,686.16  105.96   
 Weekly R2  38,854.70  168.54   
 Monthly R1  39,548.83  694.13   
 Monthly R2  40,857.69  1,308.86   

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My Stock Market Books
My Novels

Copyright © 2005-2024 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Privacy/Disclaimer