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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/16/2018
25,413 123.95 0.5%
10,584 -31.70 -0.3%
729 14.41 2.0%
7,248 -11.16 -0.2%
2,736 6.07 0.2%
YTD
2.8%
-0.3%
0.8%
5.0%
2.3%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2018
26,800 or 24,500 by 12/01/2018
11,000 or 10,100 by 12/01/2018
710 or 750 by 12/01/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 12/01/2018
2,650 or 2,800 by 12/01/2018

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

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Monday 11/19/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The index has made a confirmed head-and-shoulders top chart pattern. This is a pretty one, too.

The left and right shoulders are symmetrical about the head. The two shoulders top out near the same price. And they look similar (both narrow peaks).

It confirms as a valid pattern when the index closes below the red neckline, at A.

In this case, however, the index pulls back to the pattern, heading up.

My guess is the index will continue rising, despite me predicting in Tom's Targets (top of page) that the index will drop.

 

$ $ $

I updated stats on head-and-shoulders tops and complex head-and-shoulders tops.

$ $ $

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 602.12 points.
Tuesday: Down 100.69 points.
Wednesday: Down 205.99 points.
Thursday: Up 208.77 points.
Friday: Up 123.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 576.08 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 159.03 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 44.74 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.7% down from the high of 26,951.81 on 10/03/2018.
     8.9% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     10.9% down from the high of 8,133.30 on 08/30/2018.
     9.3% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     7.0% down from the high of 2,940.91 on 09/21/2018.
     8.0% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/16/2018, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
10 bullish patterns,
247 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 35.7%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,995  25,204  25,357  25,566  25,720 
Weekly  24,210  24,812  25,389  25,991  26,568 
Monthly  23,116  24,264  25,271  26,420  27,427 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,697  2,717  2,732  2,751  2,766 
Weekly  2,622  2,679  2,728  2,785  2,833 
Monthly  2,506  2,621  2,719  2,834  2,932 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,128  7,188  7,231  7,291  7,335 
Weekly  6,932  7,090  7,230  7,389  7,529 
Monthly  6,533  6,890  7,280  7,638  8,028 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 55.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 8.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

I found 57 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
71Pipe bottom
26Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
16Dead-cat bounce
11Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Head-and-shoulders bottom
7Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
5Diamond bottom
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Electric Utility (Central)2. Healthcare Information
3. Healthcare Information3. Retail Store
4. Household Products4. Shoe
5. Medical Services5. Medical Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/16/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I updated stats on head-and-shoulders bottoms.

I updated stats on complex head-and-shoulders bottoms.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 603 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDead-cat bounce      11/09/201811/09/2018Chemical (Diversified)
AABAHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/11/201811/12/2018Internet
BAXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/31/201811/12/2018Medical Supplies
BZHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/30/201811/12/2018Homebuilding
BRKSPipe top      11/05/201811/05/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CCRNPipe top      10/29/201811/05/2018Human Resources
EIXDead-cat bounce      11/08/201811/12/2018Electric Utility (West)
EEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/01/201811/12/2018Electric Utility (West)
GMEBroadening bottom      10/05/201811/15/2018Retail (Special Lines)
GISBroadening bottom      10/10/201811/13/2018Food Processing
NVTAPipe top      10/29/201811/05/2018Medical Services
NTGRTriangle, symmetrical      10/26/201811/15/2018Telecom. Equipment
PCGDead-cat bounce      11/08/201811/15/2018Electric Utility (West)
PGRBroadening top      09/11/201811/15/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/08/2018 and 11/15/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $1.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.17 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -82.09%
Volume: 222,200 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/09/2018 to 11/09/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Altaba (AABA)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $64.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.37 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.74%
Volume: 10,098,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,140,182 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/11/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $65.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.29 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.84%
Volume: 8,750,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/31/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $9.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.08 or 17.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.88%
Volume: 1,117,900 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/30/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Brooks Automation (BRKS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $29.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.66 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.23%
Volume: 531,000 shares. 3 month avg: 945,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/05/2018 to 11/05/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $8.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.55 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.15%
Volume: 130,800 shares. 3 month avg: 226,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/29/2018 to 11/05/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/02/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/31/2019.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $47.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.22 or 23.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.38%
Volume: 10,218,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/08/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $56.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.75 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 368,400 shares. 3 month avg: 249,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/01/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $13.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.51 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.85%
Volume: 3,029,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/05/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $45.23
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.37 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.71%
Volume: 4,012,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/10/2018 to 11/13/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $12.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.22 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 35.79%
Volume: 660,800 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/29/2018 to 11/05/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $54.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.90 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.44%
Volume: 314,200 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/26/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 593 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $17.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.72 or 61.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -60.43%
Volume: 106,362,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/08/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $66.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.57 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.72%
Volume: 6,514,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/11/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 11/15/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.9% or -64.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 201 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 95 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 106 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 154/280 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 48/95 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's take the letters in order.

Notice at A that price closed above the top of a broadening formation (right-angled and ascending). Then at B or perhaps a bit later, it closed below the pattern, busting the upward breakout.

Based on the pattern's height, it appears to have met the measure rule target today (well, not quite. The height is just over 100 points and the index didn't drop that far below the horizontal red line). We may have to wait for Thursday's trading to see if it actually meets the target.

I'm not sure that pattern CDE is a pattern or not. It looks like a head-and-shoulders top, except that the head (E) is awfully fat. By itself, E is a rounding top.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,340.79    
 Monthly S1  6,738.59  397.80   
 Daily S2  6,991.98  253.39   
 Weekly S2  7,004.68  12.71   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  7,064.18  59.50   
 Weekly S1  7,070.54  6.35   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  7,101.17  30.63   
 Close  7,136.39  35.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,170.46  34.07   
 Daily Pivot  7,173.38  2.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,191.87  18.49   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,213.28  21.41   
 Daily R1  7,245.58  32.31   
 Open  7,265.39  19.81   
 High  7,282.57  17.18   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  7,320.63  38.06   
 Weekly Pivot  7,321.73  1.10   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  7,354.78  33.04   
 Weekly R1  7,387.59  32.81   
 Weekly R2  7,638.78  251.20   
 Monthly R1  7,718.43  79.65   
 Monthly R2  8,300.47  582.04   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.