Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/28/2024
  Indus: 39,807 +47.29 +0.1%  
  Trans: 16,212 +183.07 +1.1%  
  Utils: 882 +7.51 +0.9%  
  Nasdaq: 16,379 -20.06 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,254 +5.86 +0.1%  
YTD
 +5.6%  
 +2.0%  
 +0.1%  
 +9.1%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

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Monday 4/1/24. April Market Forecast Update

Forecast

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 75.66 points.
Tuesday: Up 320.33 points.
Wednesday: Up 401.37 points.
Thursday: Up 269.24 points.
Friday: Down 305.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1092.6 points or 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 406.29 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 137.26 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 39,889.05 on 03/21/2024.
     7.2% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 16,538.86 on 03/21/2024.
     13.1% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 5,264.85 on 03/28/2024.
     12.2% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,646  39,727  39,798  39,878  39,949 
Weekly  38,357  39,082  39,486  40,211  40,614 
Monthly  37,795  38,801  39,345  40,351  40,895 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,236  5,245  5,255  5,264  5,274 
Weekly  5,086  5,170  5,216  5,300  5,345 
Monthly  4,839  5,047  5,154  5,362  5,469 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,309  16,344  16,383  16,418  16,456 
Weekly  15,703  16,041  16,290  16,628  16,877 
Monthly  15,036  15,708  16,123  16,795  17,211 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, A, ALK, ALGT, AMED, AEL, ANIK, AR, APA, ARCB, ARW, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BA, BAH, BRC, BCO, CPB, CLS, COR, CLF, CNA, CNX, CAG, CONN, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, EIX, EOG, EQT, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FIS, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GME, IT, GIS, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HP, HOV, ILMN, IPI, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LZB, LEG, LEN, L, MHO, MRO, MDC, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEU, NEE, NI, NOC, NUS, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PFE, PCG, PXD, PPL, PFG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RGS, ROP, R, SAND, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TTD, TDG, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UIS, VFC, WRB, WPM, WSC, WOLF, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IAT, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWW, EWD, EWL, EWU, IBB, PXJ, GLD, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Homebuilding6. Homebuilding
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Building Materials9. Building Materials
10. Retail Building Supply10. Retail Building Supply
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Food Processing52. Food Processing
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Medical Services55. Medical Services
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Friday 3/29/24. Help!

Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

I need some social media buzz, and I'm hoping you can provide it.

My latest book (Invest for Two-Comma Wealth, pictured on the right) is self-published (does not use a traditional publisher) and struggling to reach its intended audience. Here's how you can help.

If you have a blog or use social media such as X/twitter or meta/facebook, could you post a note saying the book is available?

Maybe say something like, "Thomas Bulkowski has released a new book titled, Invest for Two-Comma wealth. It's an entry-level yet comprehensive book about investing in the securities markets to grow your net worth. It's available for $20 at Amazon.com."

If you want to say more about the book, you can visit Amazon.com's detail page here and use the text and book image.

If you do post a note, then let me know at email

Thanks!

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, A, ALK, ALGT, AMED, AEL, ANIK, AR, APA, ARCB, ARW, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BA, BAH, BRC, BCO, CPB, CLS, COR, CLF, CNA, CNX, CAG, CONN, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, EIX, EOG, EQT, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FIS, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GME, IT, GIS, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HP, HOV, ILMN, IPI, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LZB, LEG, LEN, L, MHO, MRO, MDC, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEU, NEE, NI, NOC, NUS, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PFE, PCG, PXD, PPL, PFG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RGS, ROP, R, SAND, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TTD, TDG, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UIS, VFC, WRB, WPM, WSC, WOLF, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IAT, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWW, EWD, EWL, EWU, IBB, PXJ, GLD, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 3/28/24. Ethereum Review

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.5% or 83.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 192 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 67.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 274/484 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

The chart shows Ethereum on the daily scale.

After making a strong push higher from the low at A to the peak at B, the cryptocurrency retraced to C. That's what I've expected to see happen in the major indices (Dow industrials, Nasdaq, and so on), but those are stubborn and haven't complied.

The currency has climbed from C to approach what I believe will be a peak at D. The D peak will likely remain below the top at B, so watch for that. After peaking, I expect it to drop, as the green line shows.

$ $ $

I added a trading lesson to cup with handle patterns. I found price retraces 47% of the time after a breakout, dropping substantially. That's something traders should know. The link will take you there for your viewing pleasure. Smiley

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 183 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AES, AKAM, ALK, ALGT, AXP, AR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, BAX, BIG, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CNX, CL, ED, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CRH, CCK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, ELV, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, GPN, GFS, THG, HLIT, HELE, HNI, HON, HOV, HUN, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, ITGR, KALU, KELYA, KSS, LH, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LNC, MGY, MRO, MTRN, MRK, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEE, NKE, NI, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PXD, PLXS, POR, PPL, PSTG, RRC, RLI, RCKY, ROP, R, SLB, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, SPSC, SUM, TPR, TGT, TTD, TMO, TJX, TZOO, UHAL, UIS, VMI, VECO, VRTX, VC, WRB, WSO, WEX, WPM, WOLF, IYK, IYE, IEZ, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IHF, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWP, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLE, XLK, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,042.80    
 Weekly S2  15,709.75  666.95   
 Monthly S1  15,721.16  11.41   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  16,054.63  333.47   
 Monthly Pivot  16,130.01  75.38   
 Daily S2  16,217.52  87.51   
 Low  16,279.17  61.65   
 Weekly Pivot  16,296.75  17.58   
 Daily S1  16,308.52  11.77   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,337.48  28.96   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,355.50  18.01   
 Daily Pivot  16,370.17  14.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,373.51  3.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,399.52  26.01   
 Open  16,424.76  25.24   
 High  16,431.82  7.06   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  16,461.17  29.35   
 Daily R2  16,522.82  61.65   
 Weekly R1  16,641.63  118.81   
 Monthly R1  16,808.37  166.74   
 Weekly R2  16,883.75  75.38   
 Monthly R2  17,217.22  333.47   

 

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