Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/18/2019
  Indus: 26,770 -255.68 -0.9%  
  Trans: 10,509 +12.56 +0.1%  
  Utils: 866 +3.67 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,090 -67.31 -0.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,986 -11.75 -0.4%  
YTD
 +14.8%  
 +14.6%  
 +21.5%  
 +21.9%  
 +19.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2019  
  Up arrow27,600 or 26,000 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow10,880 or 9,700 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow900 or 845 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow8,225 or 7,700 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow3,050 or 2,900 by 11/01/2019
As of 10/18/2019
  Indus: 26,770 -255.68 -0.9%  
  Trans: 10,509 +12.56 +0.1%  
  Utils: 866 +3.67 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,090 -67.31 -0.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,986 -11.75 -0.4%  
YTD
 +14.8%  
 +14.6%  
 +21.5%  
 +21.9%  
 +19.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2019  
  Up arrow27,600 or 26,000 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow10,880 or 9,700 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow900 or 845 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow8,225 or 7,700 by 11/01/2019
  Up arrow3,050 or 2,900 by 11/01/2019

 

September 2019 Headlines

Archives


Monday 9/30/19. Market Monday: More Down

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The two slanted lines (converging red ones) outline the boundaries of a tall symmetrical triangle. It has plenty of crossings of price but it seems to end too soon.

Price rises until it peaks at overhead resistance (blue line at chart top).

There the index forms a double top pattern, at AB. This confirms as a valid one when the index closes below the valley between the two peaks.

That happens a few days after B.

I drew a horizontal line at C, where I expect the index to find support. That's near the top of the triangle and also near the value of the May peak.

That's where I expect the index to turn. I am concerned that Trump will do something stupid (like start a war) to divert attention from his impeachment proceedings. Interesting times...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 14.92 points.
Tuesday: Down 142.22 points.
Wednesday: Up 162.94 points.
Thursday: Down 79.59 points.
Friday: Down 70.87 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 114.82 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 178.04 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 30.28 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.1% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     18.5% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     4.8% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     23.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     21.2% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/27/2019, the CPI had:

32 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
258 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 11.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,553  26,687  26,850  26,983  27,146 
Weekly  26,494  26,657  26,868  27,032  27,243 
Monthly  24,745  25,783  26,545  27,582  28,344 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,923  2,942  2,965  2,984  3,007 
Weekly  2,909  2,936  2,972  2,998  3,034 
Monthly  2,753  2,857  2,940  3,044  3,127 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,799  7,869  7,961  8,031  8,122 
Weekly  7,728  7,834  7,996  8,102  8,265 
Monthly  7,458  7,699  7,971  8,212  8,484 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 12.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 56.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 14.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 15.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
17Pipe bottom
14Triple bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
11Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
10Triangle, ascending
8Head-and-shoulders bottom
7Flag, high and tight
6Pipe top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. Telecom. Equipment3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Chemical (Basic)
5. Chemical (Basic)5. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/27/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKSPipe top      09/09/201909/16/2019Drug
AVATriangle, symmetrical      09/05/201909/24/2019Electric Utility (West)
BMYChannel      07/31/201909/26/2019Drug
COGPipe top      09/09/201909/16/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
CEFlag      09/16/201909/26/2019Chemical (Basic)
CCRNTriangle, symmetrical      09/06/201909/26/2019Human Resources
CTSFlag      09/17/201909/23/2019Electronics
EXPDPipe top      09/16/201909/16/2019Air Transport
GOOGLBroadening top      09/12/201909/26/2019Internet
IVCFlag, high and tight      08/05/201909/23/2019Medical Supplies
KTriangle, ascending      08/19/201909/25/2019Food Processing
MCHXRectangle bottom      08/09/201909/26/2019Advertising
CNRPennant      09/16/201909/26/2019Building Materials
NBLPipe top      09/09/201909/16/2019Petroleum (Producing)
PRUPennant      09/18/201909/26/2019Insurance (Life)
KWRPipe top      09/09/201909/16/2019Chemical (Specialty)
XELPipe bottom      09/09/201909/16/2019Electric Utility (West)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/19/2019 and 09/26/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $19.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.20 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.77%
Volume: 1,191,200 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/09/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Avista (AVA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $49.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.95 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.54%
Volume: 327,500 shares. 3 month avg: 396,820 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/05/2019 to 09/24/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $49.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.66 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.87%
Volume: 8,205,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,378,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 07/31/2019 to 09/26/2019

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $17.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.48 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.18%
Volume: 9,359,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,196,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/09/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Celanese Corp (CE)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 62 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $121.59
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $116.46 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.15%
Volume: 656,300 shares. 3 month avg: 691,697 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 09/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $10.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.63 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.97%
Volume: 153,300 shares. 3 month avg: 226,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/06/2019 to 09/26/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $32.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.53 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.30%
Volume: 79,700 shares. 3 month avg: 73,662 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/17/2019 to 09/23/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $72.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.47 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.01%
Volume: 560,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,055,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/16/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Google (GOOGL)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $1,242.29
1 Month avg volatility: $18.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1,282.20 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.88%
Volume: 1,126,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,574,874 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/12/2019 to 09/26/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $7.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.98 or 19.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 72.09%
Volume: 636,800 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 162 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $64.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.82 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.63%
Volume: 1,653,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/25/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $3.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.70 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.02%
Volume: 79,200 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/09/2019 to 09/26/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (CNR)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 368 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $5.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.21 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.90%
Volume: 295,000 shares. 3 month avg: 632,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 09/26/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/05/2020.
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $22.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.86 or 9.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.95%
Volume: 3,879,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/09/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $89.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.81 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.04%
Volume: 1,658,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,669,805 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/18/2019 to 09/26/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $155.47
1 Month avg volatility: $4.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $167.17 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.51%
Volume: 104,900 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/09/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 582
9/26/19 close: $65.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.16 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.08%
Volume: 3,813,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,202,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/09/2019 to 09/16/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 9/26/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 83.75 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 229 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 149 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 80 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 173/312 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing I noticed about this chart is the mirror today with yesterday's move.

Yesterday, price made a straight line run down for most of the session. Today, the stock climbed in a straight-line run for most of the session.

I show those two moves with a red line. It traces the form of a V-bottom.

It looks like there's another 50 points to go before it reaches the top of the V, and it looks like the index is starting to retrace. So it's possible that 8100 will be resistance to a new up-move and we'll see price drop from here (a short retrace, not an extended turn).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,504.29    
 Monthly S1  7,790.83  286.55   
 Daily S2  7,876.55  85.72   
 Low  7,935.57  59.02   
 Daily S1  7,976.97  41.40   
 Weekly S2  7,982.39  5.42   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  7,990.66  8.27   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly S2.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,996.47  5.81   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,015.29  18.81   
 Monthly Pivot  8,017.32  2.03   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly S1  8,029.88  12.57   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,034.10  4.21   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  8,035.98  1.89   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,077.38  41.40   
 High  8,095.00  17.62   
 Weekly Pivot  8,133.66  38.66   
 Daily R1  8,136.40  2.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  8,181.15  44.76   
 Daily R2  8,195.41  14.26   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,284.93  89.51   
 Monthly R1  8,303.86  18.94   
 Monthly R2  8,530.35  226.48   

Wednesday 9/25/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see from the chart, a bearish signal appears today. It can change (disappear) but it's here.

Notice how the thin blue indicator line has dropped dramatically over the past two weeks or so. Hmm. Does that mean the signal might last, that it's real?

Could be. Just remember that the bearish signal can disappear for up to a week.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 36% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 33%.
The fewest was 26% on 09/25/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 485 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 14% on 09/25/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The red line is more sensitive of the two. It's been trending down for about two weeks also. The blue line has also turned down, but not as quickly.

So this chart is bearish, too. It could mean this downtrend will last, but who knows. Just be careful going long here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/24/19. Slider Quiz! Pipe Tops

The index climbed by 0.1% or 14.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1350 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 697 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 653 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 193/323 or 59.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the pipe tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,788.42    
 Monthly S1  25,869.20  1,080.79   
 Monthly Pivot  26,587.97  718.76   
 Weekly S2  26,667.42  79.45   
 Daily S2  26,751.07  83.65   
 Weekly S1  26,808.70  57.63   
 Low  26,831.34  22.64   
 Daily S1  26,850.53  19.19   
 Open  26,851.45  0.92   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,900.00  48.55   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,921.21  21.21   
 Daily Pivot  26,930.80  9.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,942.41  11.61   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,949.99  7.58   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  27,011.07  61.08   
 Daily R1  27,030.26  19.19   
 Weekly Pivot  27,040.44  10.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  27,110.53  70.09   
 Weekly R1  27,181.72  71.19   
 Weekly R2  27,413.46  231.73   
 Monthly R1  27,668.75  255.30   
 Monthly R2  28,387.52  718.76   

Monday 9/23/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Outlined in red is a symmetrical triangle.

I show this on a wide chart to highlight a possible turn.

From studying the triangles, we know that the apex of the triangle is a reliable turning point. The resulting trend might not last long, but there's often a minor high or low which appears within a few days of the apex.

I copied the date scale and pasted it into the chart. It appears the apex will appear in early October (maybe 2 weeks from now?). So expect a very short-term trend change then.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 142.7 points.
Tuesday: Up 33.98 points.
Wednesday: Up 36.28 points.
Thursday: Down 52.29 points.
Friday: Down 159.72 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 284.45 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 59.04 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 15.32 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     19.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     25.7% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     22.4% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/20/2019, the CPI had:

34 bearish patterns,
31 bullish patterns,
481 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 47.7%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,751  26,843  27,019  27,111  27,287 
Weekly  26,662  26,799  27,035  27,172  27,408 
Monthly  24,783  25,859  26,583  27,659  28,383 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,966  2,979  2,998  3,011  3,029 
Weekly  2,954  2,973  2,998  3,017  3,041 
Monthly  2,763  2,877  2,950  3,064  3,137 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,019  8,068  8,136  8,185  8,252 
Weekly  7,996  8,057  8,147  8,208  8,298 
Monthly  7,518  7,818  8,031  8,331  8,544 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
27Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
22Pipe bottom
22Triple bottom
21Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
18Triangle, symmetrical
13Head-and-shoulders bottom
10Triangle, ascending
9Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
7Diamond bottom
6Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)3. Chemical (Basic)
4. Chemical (Basic)4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Telecom. Equipment5. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/20/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNDiamond top      08/19/201909/19/2019IT Services
ADTNFlag      09/12/201909/19/2019Telecom. Equipment
AXPRoof      08/26/201909/19/2019Financial Services
BECNPennant      09/13/201909/18/2019Retail Building Supply
CENXPennant      09/16/201909/19/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
DECKPipe top      09/03/201909/09/2019Shoe
EIGIDead-cat bounce      09/13/201909/19/2019E-Commerce
KTriangle, ascending      08/19/201909/19/2019Food Processing
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      09/05/201909/19/2019Food Processing
LAWSFlag      09/13/201909/19/2019Metal Fabricating
MCHXRectangle bottom      08/09/201909/19/2019Advertising
PYPLDiamond bottom      08/19/201909/19/2019Financial Services
IHIDiamond top      08/29/201909/18/2019Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/12/2019 and 09/19/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $194.67
1 Month avg volatility: $3.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $202.38 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.05%
Volume: 1,578,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $11.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.68 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.33%
Volume: 143,800 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/12/2019 to 09/19/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/18/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/17/2019 and a 38% chance by 01/16/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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American Express Co (AXP)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $117.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.47 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.57%
Volume: 1,994,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $34.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.86 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.80%
Volume: 500,100 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/18/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/05/2020.
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $7.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.31 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.97%
Volume: 759,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $138.06
1 Month avg volatility: $3.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $147.50 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.90%
Volume: 520,500 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/03/2019 to 09/09/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $3.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.06 or 31.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -42.11%
Volume: 2,239,300 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $63.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.34 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.80%
Volume: 1,021,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $144.86
1 Month avg volatility: $3.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.31 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.09%
Volume: 141,700 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/05/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $41.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.25 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.44%
Volume: 16,500 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $3.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.66 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.02%
Volume: 71,500 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/09/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Paypal Holdings, Inc (PYPL)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $106.12
1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.76 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.20%
Volume: 5,024,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 583
9/19/19 close: $250.10
1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $258.45 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.17%
Volume: 128,800 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/29/2019 to 09/18/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 9/19/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -8.63 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 594 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 330 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 264 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 172/311 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The Federal Reserve announced a quarter point rate cut at A. Before that, according to one news report, the FED made confusing statements about future rate cuts.

The market didn't like that. Down the index went until the announcement sent the index back up.

I drew a red line highlighting a poorly-shaped (formed) measured move down.

The pattern has completed. One of the things I like about it is what happens next. After completing the MMD, the index returns to the corrective phase. That happened today when the index climbed back up to 8175, near the top of the region.

Now the question becomes, what happens next? A check of my book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy, says that a downward breakout happens 67% of the time.

That's good enough for me. I expect that we'll see price drop below the bottom of the measured move. The above probabilities say the opposite, that the index will close higher. One of us will be right.

It's possible we'll both be right. The index will close higher but it'll take a few days for price to close below the MMD.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,518.66    
 Monthly S1  7,848.03  329.36   
 Weekly S2  7,898.84  50.81   
 Weekly S1  8,038.11  139.28   
 Monthly Pivot  8,045.91  7.80   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  8,054.18  8.26   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  8,086.22  32.04   
 Daily S1  8,115.78  29.56   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,121.99  6.21   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,133.04  11.05   
 Weekly Pivot  8,140.96  7.91   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,144.10  3.14   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  8,147.83  3.73   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  8,174.62  26.79   
 Close  8,177.39  2.77   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  8,179.87  2.48   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  8,209.43  29.56   
 Daily R2  8,241.48  32.04   
 Weekly R1  8,280.23  38.76   
 Monthly R1  8,375.28  95.04   
 Weekly R2  8,383.08  7.80   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  8,573.16  190.09   

Wednesday 9/18/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator today is pegged at 93, close to the 100 limit. That's bullish as the green vertical bar on the far right of the chart suggests.

Yesterday (Monday), the reading was 100, so its come down some. To me, that's an indicator of weakening upward momentum, of a trend change coming.

I still think the indices will struggle to move higher because of overhead resistance setup by the July peak, but I could be wrong. It's possible we'll get some good news which will cause the markets to spike upward and break through that resistance.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 23% on 09/20/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 13% on 09/20/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago.

Both charts don't show any worries, so maybe we'll see that upward spike happening despite my concerns.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/17/19. Slider Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.5% or -142.7 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 760 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 382 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 378 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 192/322 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's a slider quiz featuring the ascending triangle chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,607.25    
 Monthly S1  25,842.04  1,234.78   
 Weekly S2  26,443.85  601.82   
 Monthly Pivot  26,574.38  130.53   
 Weekly S1  26,760.34  185.95   
 Daily S2  26,953.77  193.44   
 Daily S1  27,015.30  61.52   
 Low  27,032.56  17.26   
 Weekly Pivot  27,033.53  0.97   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  27,076.82  43.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,086.16  9.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  27,094.08  7.93   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,102.71  8.63   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,119.27  16.56   
 Open  27,146.06  26.79   
 Daily R1  27,155.61  9.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  27,172.87  17.26   
 Daily R2  27,234.39  61.52   
 Weekly R1  27,350.02  115.62   
 Weekly R2  27,623.21  273.20   
 Monthly R1  27,809.17  185.95   
 Monthly R2  28,541.51  732.35   

Monday 9/16/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Price has completed a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern, conveniently labeled LHR on the chart. That's L for left shoulder, H for head, and R for right shoulder.

The chart pattern confirms as a valid one when the index closes above the lower of the two horizontal red lines.

Price has advanced toward the top red line, at the top of the chart. I show that as a line of overhead resistance.

I think the index will hit that line and turn down. That's why most of Tom's Targets at the top of this page are bearish for the next two weeks.

Balancing that is new media hints of an easing of the China trade war. So maybe we'll see a punch through of that resistance and the index will soar.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 38.05 points.
Tuesday: Up 73.92 points.
Wednesday: Up 227.61 points.
Thursday: Up 45.41 points.
Friday: Up 37.07 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 422.06 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 73.64 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 28.68 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.7% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     20.2% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     2.0% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     26.6% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     23.1% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/13/2019, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
10 bullish patterns,
173 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 83.3%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,147  27,183  27,230  27,267  27,314 
Weekly  26,491  26,855  27,081  27,445  27,671 
Monthly  24,655  25,937  26,622  27,904  28,589 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,995  3,001  3,009  3,016  3,024 
Weekly  2,931  2,969  2,995  3,033  3,059 
Monthly  2,756  2,882  2,951  3,077  3,146 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,139  8,158  8,184  8,203  8,229 
Weekly  7,899  8,038  8,141  8,280  8,383 
Monthly  7,518  7,848  8,046  8,375  8,573 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 26.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
36Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
24Pipe bottom
21Triple bottom
20Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
19Triangle, symmetrical
14Head-and-shoulders bottom
10Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
9Triangle, ascending
6Diamond bottom
6Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Homebuilding2. IT Services
3. Chemical (Basic)3. Financial Services
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Homebuilding
5. Telecom. Equipment5. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/13/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 15 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 23 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADSPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Information Services
BZHScallop, ascending      08/22/201909/12/2019Homebuilding
CENXPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
CREEPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Semiconductor
DHRBroadening bottom      08/08/201909/10/2019Precision Instrument
DRQPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ESVFlag, high and tight      08/15/201909/10/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
REPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EVHPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Healthcare Information
FICOTriple top      08/01/201909/06/2019IT Services
GISBroadening top      07/24/201909/09/2019Food Processing
EVRGScallop, ascending and inverted      08/06/201909/10/2019Electric Utility (Central)
HSCPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Diversified Co.
INOVTriple bottom      08/15/201909/09/2019Healthcare Information
IBPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/28/201909/10/2019Retail Building Supply
INTUDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/23/201909/06/2019Computer Software and Svcs
JAZZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/27/201909/10/2019Biotechnology
JCPFlag, high and tight      08/13/201909/11/2019Retail Store
JNJDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/26/201909/10/2019Medical Supplies
LBPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Apparel
RAMPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/03/201909/09/2019Computer Software and Svcs
LXUFlag, high and tight      07/18/201909/12/2019Building Materials
MPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Retail Store
NWPXPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Building Materials
OGEHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      06/27/201909/09/2019Electric Utility (Central)
PATKPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Retail Building Supply
PDCOPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Medical Supplies
RCKYTriple bottom      08/15/201909/06/2019Shoe
SMTCPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TLRDDead-cat bounce      09/12/201909/12/2019Retail (Special Lines)
TDCPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Computer Software and Svcs
TZOODouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/14/201909/06/2019Internet
TGScallop, ascending      08/19/201909/12/2019Chemical (Specialty)
UNMPipe bottom      08/26/201909/03/2019Insurance (Diversified)
IHIBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      08/08/201909/11/2019Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/05/2019 and 09/12/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 522 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $134.69
1 Month avg volatility: $3.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $124.91 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.25%
Volume: 625,200 shares. 3 month avg: 546,969 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $14.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.84 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 49.26%
Volume: 559,600 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 08/22/2019 to 09/12/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 493 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $6.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.83 or 15.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.20%
Volume: 1,410,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $50.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.74 or 11.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.69%
Volume: 2,747,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,005,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Danaher Corp (DHR)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 187 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $141.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $134.28 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.45%
Volume: 2,180,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,378,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/10/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $51.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.98 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 72.63%
Volume: 226,300 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ensco Rowan plc (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $6.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.07 or 23.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.30%
Volume: 4,711,600 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/10/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/02/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/01/2019 and a 38% chance by 01/31/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $251.70
1 Month avg volatility: $4.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $237.93 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.59%
Volume: 553,700 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 575 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $7.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.04 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -64.81%
Volume: 1,768,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/29/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/27/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $313.26
1 Month avg volatility: $10.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $340.84 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 67.52%
Volume: 341,700 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 09/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 131 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $54.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.06 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.91%
Volume: 3,246,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/24/2019 to 09/09/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Great Plains Energy (EVRG)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $64.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.92 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.29%
Volume: 1,266,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,286,128 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 08/06/2019 to 09/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $20.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.11 or 13.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.14%
Volume: 879,700 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Inovalon Holdings Inc (INOV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $17.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.67 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.41%
Volume: 699,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $58.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.43 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 73.52%
Volume: 138,200 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/28/2019 to 09/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Intuit Inc (INTU)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $268.25
1 Month avg volatility: $6.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $284.88 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.27%
Volume: 1,261,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,303,997 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/23/2019 to 09/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $131.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $123.94 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.04%
Volume: 337,700 shares. 3 month avg: 454,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/27/2019 to 09/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $1.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.87 or 21.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.73%
Volume: 29,930,000 shares. 3 month avg: 17,298,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/13/2019 to 09/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 417 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $130.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $126.22 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.07%
Volume: 5,161,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/10/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $19.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.19 or 14.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.94%
Volume: 8,154,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $45.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.52 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.03%
Volume: 753,600 shares. 3 month avg: 906,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/03/2019 to 09/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $6.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.06 or 18.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.32%
Volume: 203,900 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/18/2019 to 09/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $17.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.47 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.91%
Volume: 16,341,100 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 153 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $27.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.99 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.75%
Volume: 29,900 shares. 3 month avg: 31,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $43.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.54 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.07%
Volume: 956,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,006,480 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2019 to 09/09/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $40.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.19 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.96%
Volume: 318,900 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 510 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $18.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.95 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.41%
Volume: 935,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Rocky Brands Inc (RCKY)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $30.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.30 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.81%
Volume: 38,300 shares. 3 month avg: 41,775 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $48.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.07 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.28%
Volume: 761,400 shares. 3 month avg: 510,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $5.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.67 or 32.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -63.12%
Volume: 16,154,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/12/2019 to 09/12/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $33.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.03 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.27%
Volume: 844,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,378,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 330 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $13.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.73 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.15%
Volume: 56,800 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $19.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.81 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.51%
Volume: 91,100 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/12/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $29.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.85 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.20%
Volume: 2,290,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 583
9/12/19 close: $250.64
1 Month avg volatility: $3.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $258.85 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.44%
Volume: 151,300 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/11/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Thursday 9/12/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.1% or 85.52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 187 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 122 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 65 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 171/310 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's start with the red trendline (A). I thought it would hold back price from advancing -- and it did -- but only for a time. The index was able to push through that resistance today (Wednesday).

Now let's look at Elliott waves. I'm not a wave counter. But I see three rises (1, 3, 5) and two retraces (2, 4). It's a motive wave.

Following a motive wave, an ABC correction should happen. That's two moves lower with an upward retrace in between. If you know what a measured move down looks like, then you'll know what I'm talking about. If not, then visit the link.

Wave 5 might continue higher, perhaps extending itself in another stair step, which is why I don't particularly care for EW.

If it works, we should see a retrace, perhaps starting on Friday (Thursday will be an up day). But all of this is just a guess.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,517.48    
 Weekly S2  7,763.37  245.89   
 Monthly S1  7,843.58  80.21   
 Weekly S1  7,966.53  122.95   
 Monthly Pivot  7,989.00  22.47   
 Weekly Pivot  8,050.47  61.47   
 Daily S2  8,052.19  1.71   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  8,081.56  29.37   
 Open  8,091.68  10.12   
 Daily S1  8,110.93  19.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,115.22  4.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,125.62  10.40   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,136.02  10.40   
 Daily Pivot  8,140.31  4.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,169.68  29.37   
 High  8,169.68  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  8,199.05  29.37   
 Daily R2  8,228.43  29.37   
 Weekly R1  8,253.63  25.20   
 Monthly R1  8,315.10  61.47   
 Weekly R2  8,337.57  22.47   
 Monthly R2  8,460.52  122.95   

Wednesday 9/11/19. Indicators: Bullish! But Downturn Coming

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green line on the far right of the chart remains in place. It's a bullish signal. Even the thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart is bullish, too.

If you look at the index, though, I think it signals a warning. Price is bumping up against a ceiling (at B) created by the peak in July (where the red line is, at point A).

Even the indicator has backed off from the recent high (see bottom of the chart, during the last few days).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 23% on 09/20/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 13% on 09/14/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

I looked at the red line and said, "Wow!" Look at how the index has climbed in the last 2 weeks or so. A check of the numbers reveals the unreal, that a week ago almost half of my stocks were in bear market territory (45%) and today's it's at 35%. That's an unheard of move.

Even the blue line, the more un-caffeinated of the two lines, has shown dramatic improvement.

Both charts are bullish, so why am I expecting a downturn? The indices are at overhead resistance. The general market shows weakness, as if a select few are prospering. To put it another way, the tech stocks are showing weakness. Financials got hit today. There's an uneasiness in the market which seems to be hinting of a looming drop.

But I could be wrong about all of this. Smiley

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/10/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.1% or 38.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1346 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 695 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 651 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/321 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the pipe bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

Tomorrow (Tuesday) my latest novel goes on sale (ebook only) for 99 cents, for a week. The price gets bumped up in a few days to $1.99 before returning to its list price of $2.99.

Yes, it's a romance novel, one I'm sure every one of you will want to own a copy. Smiley

Here's the book jacket text

Those eyes. One green, one blue. Gina is young, beautiful, smart, and hoping to find true love. But one date with the wrong man changes everything. She fights for her life the only way she can: destroy or be destroyed.

She moves away and begins a new life with an old past, a past sprinkled with secrets. A chance encounter with her neighbor, Paul, reignites her need to find direction, fulfillment, and love. Has she discovered "the one" or is he just another man she can't trust?

Dark shadows from the past stalk her. Deep insecurities she fought so hard to hide threaten to sabotage her new romance. A deadly tragedy catapults her into a new career.

Suddenly, Gina has it all.

But when others unearth her secrets and shadows move into the light, will romance survive the journey from bedroom to boardroom?

Buy a copy of Bedroom to Boardroom and savor the journey.

Read an excerpt! (Chapter 1)

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,824.06    
 Weekly S2  25,675.55  851.49   
 Monthly S1  25,829.78  154.23   
 Weekly S1  26,255.53  425.75   
 Monthly Pivot  26,345.33  89.80   
 Weekly Pivot  26,558.20  212.87   
 Daily S2  26,694.19  135.99   
 Low  26,762.18  67.99   
 Daily S1  26,764.85  2.67   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,815.14  50.29   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,831.51  16.36   
 Daily Pivot  26,832.84  1.33   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  26,835.51  2.67   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,847.87  12.36   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  26,866.23  18.37   
 High  26,900.83  34.60   
 Daily R1  26,903.50  2.67   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  26,971.49  67.99   
 Weekly R1  27,138.18  166.69   
 Monthly R1  27,351.05  212.87   
 Weekly R2  27,440.85  89.80   
 Monthly R2  27,866.60  425.75   

Monday 9/9/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Price at A forms a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the top of the pattern at horizontal line C.

So now what happens?

Price should rise, but how far? If we could answer that question accurately, repeatedly, we'd all be rich.

Here's my take, based on a trade in Southwest Air a long time ago, or rather my avoiding a trade in LUV a long time ago.

I drew a trendline sloping down from the highest high on the chart. In the LUV trade, I measured the distance from where price was then to the red line. The red line represented overhead resistance and I knew or suspected that the stock would hit turbulence and stall.

And that's exactly what happened. So I avoided either a losing trade or a tiny profit trade.

If the Dow transports follows my prediction, it'll rise to the red line and head lower. I show that with the green arrow.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 285.26 points.
Wednesday: Up 237.45 points.
Thursday: Up 372.68 points.
Friday: Up 69.31 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 394.18 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 140.19 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 52.25 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.2% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     18.4% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     2.8% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     25.5% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     21.9% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/06/2019, the CPI had:

8 bearish patterns,
28 bullish patterns,
260 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 77.8%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,636  26,717  26,789  26,869  26,941 
Weekly  25,663  26,230  26,546  27,113  27,428 
Monthly  24,811  25,804  26,333  27,326  27,854 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,966  2,972  2,979  2,985  2,991 
Weekly  2,858  2,918  2,952  3,012  3,046 
Monthly  2,765  2,872  2,929  3,036  3,093 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,076  8,090  8,112  8,125  8,148 
Weekly  7,741  7,922  8,028  8,209  8,315 
Monthly  7,495  7,799  7,967  8,271  8,438 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 35.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 35.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.6%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
29Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
20Triangle, symmetrical
12Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
11Pipe bottom
9Triangle, ascending
9Triple bottom
9Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
6Diamond bottom
6Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. IT Services2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services3. IT Services
4. Homebuilding4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Telecom. Equipment5. Information Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 24 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201909/03/2019Petroleum (Producing)
APOGRectangle bottom      08/14/201909/05/2019Building Materials
ADPTriangle, ascending      08/05/201909/04/2019IT Services
AVARising wedge      07/31/201909/03/2019Electric Utility (West)
BLDRTriangle, symmetrical      08/08/201909/05/2019Retail Building Supply
CFDiamond bottom      08/14/201909/05/2019Chemical (Basic)
COPHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/15/201909/03/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
CRHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/15/201909/03/2019Diversified Co.
CMIHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/14/201909/03/2019Machinery
FDSTriangle, descending      08/07/201908/30/2019Information Services
HBIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201909/03/2019Apparel
HRSTriangle, ascending      08/08/201909/05/2019Telecom. Equipment
HOVFlag, high and tight      08/14/201909/05/2019Homebuilding
INFNFlag, high and tight      07/09/201908/30/2019Telecom. Equipment
KLICHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/15/201909/03/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LZBDiamond bottom      08/05/201909/05/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
LEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/28/201909/03/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
MATriangle, ascending      07/29/201908/30/2019Financial Services
MSFTTriangle, ascending      08/05/201908/30/2019Computer Software and Svcs
MCOTriangle, ascending      08/01/201909/05/2019Information Services
^IXICTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201908/30/2019None
NTGRTriangle, ascending      07/26/201909/05/2019Telecom. Equipment
NEFlag, high and tight      08/15/201909/05/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NUSTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/201909/03/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
PANWDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/19/201909/04/2019Computer Software and Svcs
RTNTriangle, descending      08/05/201909/05/2019Aerospace/Defense
ROKHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/15/201909/03/2019Diversified Co.
ROSTTriangle, ascending      07/02/201909/04/2019Retail (Special Lines)
TXNTriple bottom      08/23/201909/03/2019Semiconductor
TRVTriangle, symmetrical      08/09/201909/03/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VRSNTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201909/05/2019Internet
VTriangle, ascending      08/01/201908/30/2019Financial Services
QQQTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201909/03/2019Long ETFs
XARTriangle, ascending      07/31/201909/04/2019Aerospace/Defense

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/29/2019 and 09/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $22.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.57 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.64%
Volume: 4,962,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $36.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.90 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.18%
Volume: 143,600 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $173.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $164.82 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.15%
Volume: 1,635,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/04/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Avista (AVA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $47.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.19 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.91%
Volume: 246,900 shares. 3 month avg: 396,820 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/31/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $19.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.95 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 76.08%
Volume: 1,044,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $48.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.27 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.71%
Volume: 3,450,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 500 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $53.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.66 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.29%
Volume: 6,014,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $77.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.01 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.94%
Volume: 200,600 shares. 3 month avg: 293,374 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $154.66
1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.57 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.73%
Volume: 1,563,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,327,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 122 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $273.84
1 Month avg volatility: $5.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $287.29 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.83%
Volume: 251,100 shares. 3 month avg: 411,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/30/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $14.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.85 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.37%
Volume: 9,074,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $212.13
1 Month avg volatility: $4.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.65 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.54%
Volume: 1,449,300 shares. 3 month avg: 629,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/08/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $10.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.95 or 33.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -38.47%
Volume: 646,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/14/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $5.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.72 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.09%
Volume: 3,230,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/09/2019 to 08/30/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/09/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/07/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $21.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.00 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.31%
Volume: 443,500 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $31.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.91 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.10%
Volume: 293,000 shares. 3 month avg: 437,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $38.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.43 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.86%
Volume: 1,142,300 shares. 3 month avg: 981,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/28/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mastercard Inc (MA)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 43 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $292.08
1 Month avg volatility: $5.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $279.35 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.83%
Volume: 3,808,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/29/2019 to 08/30/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 60 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $140.05
1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $133.87 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.89%
Volume: 25,433,500 shares. 3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/30/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Moodys Corp (MCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $219.58
1 Month avg volatility: $4.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $207.09 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 56.80%
Volume: 853,700 shares. 3 month avg: 714,397 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
9/5/19 close: $8,116.83
1 Month avg volatility: $107.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7,846.12 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.33%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $34.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.15 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.56%
Volume: 201,600 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/26/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $1.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.35 or 28.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.86%
Volume: 7,151,000 shares. 3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 522 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $42.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.63 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.36%
Volume: 945,400 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 09/03/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/17/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/16/2019 and a 38% chance by 01/15/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $212.05
1 Month avg volatility: $6.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $192.52 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.58%
Volume: 6,945,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $185.27
1 Month avg volatility: $4.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $195.43 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.82%
Volume: 1,203,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $158.70
1 Month avg volatility: $3.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $145.92 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.46%
Volume: 1,086,300 shares. 3 month avg: 805,498 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Ross Stores (ROST)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $109.36
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.71 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.44%
Volume: 2,437,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,750,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/02/2019 to 09/04/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $126.81
1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $120.84 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.19%
Volume: 5,189,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,332,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/23/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $151.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $146.05 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.71%
Volume: 1,230,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,525,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/09/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $206.58
1 Month avg volatility: $3.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $196.28 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.31%
Volume: 627,400 shares. 3 month avg: 871,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Visa (V)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $184.73
1 Month avg volatility: $2.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $177.44 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.01%
Volume: 6,382,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/30/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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PowerShares QQQ -- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $191.78
1 Month avg volatility: $2.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $184.78 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.32%
Volume: 33,377,800 shares. 3 month avg: 28,533,265 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 09/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR S and P Aerospace and Defense (XAR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 114 out of 583
9/5/19 close: $108.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.50 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.70%
Volume: 71,200 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/31/2019 to 09/04/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 9/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.3% or 102.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 149 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 92 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 57 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 170/309 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Today's (Wednesday) trend (B) is following a channel, one that slopes upward as the two lines suggest. What does it mean?

Look back at A. It's another channel, shorter, and happening mid-day. I often look for similar situations to see what has happened in the past and see if that's helpful predicting the future. So let's do that here.

After channel A (price actually broke out of the channel going lower), price gapped higher at the open the following day. Then price dropped like crazy, ending lower for 2 days. So now we have a roadmap to the end of the week. It'll be interesting to see if it'll happen like this or not. That is, price gaps up and then drops for 2 days.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,316.40    
 Monthly S1  7,646.64  330.24   
 Weekly S2  7,669.25  22.61   
 Weekly S1  7,823.06  153.82   
 Daily S2  7,909.94  86.88   
 Weekly Pivot  7,920.49  10.55   
 Low  7,928.94  8.45   
 Daily S1  7,943.41  14.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,948.98  5.57   
 Open  7,949.81  0.83   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,955.17  5.36   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,961.37  6.19   
 Daily Pivot  7,962.41  1.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,976.88  14.47   
 High  7,981.41  4.53   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  7,993.14  11.73   
 Daily R1  7,995.88  2.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  8,014.88  19.00   
 Weekly R1  8,074.30  59.42   
 Weekly R2  8,171.73  97.42   
 Monthly R1  8,323.38  151.65   
 Monthly R2  8,669.88  346.50   

Wednesday 9/4/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the indicator remains bullish despite Tuesday's sell-off in the Dow (down almost 300 points).

However, notice the thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart. It took a big dip today, which is a warning. What's the warning? My guess is further indecision about direction.

Notice that the index has been moving up and down, seeking a direction, for about a month now. And it's September, the weakest month of the year. According to the chart at the link, September closed higher just 39.5% of the time.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 47%.
The fewest was 23% on 09/20/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 13% on 09/04/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

The two lines show modest improvement. The improvement would have been stronger except for today's drop.

I think what this chart says is that there's underlying strength in the market. It wants to zip higher and as soon as the China trade war ends, if it ever does, you'll see a big spike. My guess is over 1,000 points in one session. But analysts say that's a long way off unless people start complaining to Trump about how we're really paying for the tariffs and they're hurting.

Whisper into his ear that his re-election chances are going south quickly, and he'll drop the tariffs quickly, too. Unless he changes his mind, of course.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/3/19. Slider Quiz! Pennants

The index climbed by 0.2% or 41.03 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1317 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 716 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 601 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/320 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the pennant chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,399.46    
 Weekly S2  25,307.92  908.46   
 Monthly S1  25,401.37  93.45   
 Weekly S1  25,855.60  454.23   
 Weekly Pivot  26,185.11  329.51   
 Daily S2  26,185.47  0.36   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  26,294.37  108.91   
 Low  26,295.59  1.22   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  26,341.51  45.92   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,379.26  37.75   
 Close  26,403.28  24.02   
 Daily Pivot  26,404.50  1.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,405.11  0.61   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,430.95  25.85   
 Open  26,476.39  45.44   
 Daily R1  26,513.40  37.01   
 High  26,514.62  1.21   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  26,623.53  108.91   
 Weekly R1  26,732.79  109.26   
 Weekly R2  27,062.30  329.51   
 Monthly R1  27,343.42  281.12   
 Monthly R2  28,283.56  940.14   

Monday 9/2/19. Keep ThePatternSite Alive!

Picture of my dog.

Monday is labor day, a national holiday in the US. Trump says it has something to do with pregnant women and hurricanes. Smiley

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code. So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first, click on a book image, and spend like crazy! The referral doesn't cost you any money and it supports this site.
  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of it.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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