Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking the links (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Picture of Bumper.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/21/2017
23,591 160.50 0.7%
9,615 92.77 1.0%
758 2.01 0.3%
6,862 71.77 1.1%
2,599 16.89 0.7%
YTD
19.4%
6.3%
14.9%
27.5%
16.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2017
23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

September 2017 Headlines


Archives


Friday 9/29/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AIGRising wedge      09/01/201709/28/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ANDVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/20/201709/26/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
ARCBPipe bottom      09/11/201709/18/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ARRSBroadening bottom      08/10/201709/22/2017Telecom. Equipment
BERYTriangle, symmetrical      09/06/201709/27/2017Packaging and Container
BBWTriangle, symmetrical      08/11/201709/26/2017Retail (Special Lines)
CINFTriangle, symmetrical      09/01/201709/22/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CROXTriangle, ascending      08/16/201709/28/2017Shoe
SHWChannel      08/14/201709/28/2017Chemical (Basic)
SODATriangle, descending      08/04/201709/22/2017Food Processing
TDCRising wedge      09/01/201709/28/2017Computer Software and Svcs
TUESFlag, high and tight      08/18/201709/28/2017Retail Store
EWSTriangle, descending      07/14/201709/28/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLBBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/14/201709/28/2017Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/21/2017 and 09/28/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $60.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.92 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.65%
Volume: 4,889,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,934,169 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/01/2017 to 09/28/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Andeavor Corp (ANDV)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $102.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $106.40 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.19%
Volume: 1,764,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,480,712 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/20/2017 to 09/26/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 62 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $32.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.78 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.17%
Volume: 199,700 shares. 3 month avg: 240,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/11/2017 to 09/18/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/03/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $28.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.26 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.81%
Volume: 885,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,050,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/10/2017 to 09/22/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $56.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.74 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.45%
Volume: 527,000 shares. 3 month avg: 879,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/06/2017 to 09/27/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $9.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.46 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -32.73%
Volume: 85,100 shares. 3 month avg: 102,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/11/2017 to 09/26/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $77.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.46 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.15%
Volume: 325,200 shares. 3 month avg: 487,626 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/01/2017 to 09/22/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 34 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $9.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.96 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 39.36%
Volume: 587,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,057,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/16/2017 to 09/28/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $357.04
1 Month avg volatility: $5.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $336.60 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.86%
Volume: 1,065,400 shares. 3 month avg: 679,398 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 08/14/2017 to 09/28/2017

Top

SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 30 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $65.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.33 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 66.02%
Volume: 340,100 shares. 3 month avg: 242,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/04/2017 to 09/22/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $33.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.12 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.25%
Volume: 1,467,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,629,612 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/01/2017 to 09/28/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $3.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.33 or 22.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.44%
Volume: 1,061,800 shares. 3 month avg: 453,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/18/2017 to 09/28/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/04/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/02/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

MSCI Singapore Index (EWS)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $24.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.69 or 1.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.48%
Volume: 549,100 shares. 3 month avg: 469,714 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/14/2017 to 09/28/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 588
9/28/17 close: $56.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.67 or 1.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.29%
Volume: 4,353,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,980,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/14/2017 to 09/28/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/28/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.1% or 73.1 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 175 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 113 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 62 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 136/240 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's start with the pattern on the left. It's a double bottom and it appears at AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal red line.

Notice the throwback, C, which happens about half the time in all chart patterns.

At D another pattern appears, which I show with the curved red line. Do you know the name of the pattern?

It's an ascending scallop. They breakout upward 80% of the time, which is no surprise because price is at or near the top of the chart pattern. That statistic comes from my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book..

Amazing, but true, I show a picture of the book on the right. It's not a full size pic, by the way. Could you tell?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,068.83    
 Monthly S1  6,261.04  192.22   
 Weekly S2  6,367.03  105.98   
 Monthly Pivot  6,369.41  2.38   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Daily S2  6,376.47  7.06   
 Low  6,405.36  28.89   
 Weekly S1  6,410.14  4.78   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  6,414.37  4.23   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  6,414.86  0.49   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,431.06  16.20   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,439.00  7.94   
 Daily Pivot  6,443.76  4.75   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  6,443.96  0.20   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,446.95  2.99   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  6,453.26  6.31   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  6,472.65  19.39   
 Daily R1  6,482.15  9.50   
 Weekly R1  6,487.07  4.92   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  6,511.05  23.97   
 Weekly R2  6,520.89  9.84   
 Monthly R1  6,561.62  40.74   
 Monthly R2  6,669.99  108.36   

Wednesday 9/27/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew some red lines to show bearish divergence between the indicator and the index. It's been reliable, but as with all divergences, the timing could use some work (meaning you might not see a turn for months).

The green, bullish, signal remains. It's the same one we've seen for weeks now.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 24%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 36% on 11/03/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 498 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 18% on 11/03/2016.

The red line made a huge gain this week versus last (21%, from 24%). The blue line improved, too, marginally by one percentage point.

The CPI chart shows a coming bearish turn but this chart shows that stocks (in my database) are still moving higher. Hmmm.

Notice that the red line since January 2017 has been trending downward until the low in August. Now it's moving up again. All the while, the index has climbed. That's divergence again, one that hasn't worked well so far.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 9/26/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.2% or -53.5 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1185 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 596 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 589 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 146/247 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale, this time using only 5 days of data.

I wanted to show the peaks and valleys clearly. Not sure I succeeded. Anyway, at A, a triple top appears, although it might be hard to see the three peaks.

I highlight this chart pattern because it was a nice opportunity to make some money. The height of the pattern subtracted from the horizontal red line gives a target. Most of the time, the index hits or exceeds that target, which it does easily in this example.

Another pattern is the ugly double bottom at B. This pattern has a higher right bottom. When it confirms, it can signal a trend change on the daily charts. Obviously, that won't happen intraday (trend change: a 20% swing in price). In this case, the index hasn't climbed much after the breakout (a close above the horizontal green line). My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the index will continue to move higher on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,286.14    
 Monthly S1  21,791.12  504.97   
 Monthly Pivot  22,105.31  314.20   
 Daily S2  22,150.92  45.61   
 Weekly S2  22,196.82  45.90   
 Low  22,219.11  22.29   
 Daily S1  22,223.51  4.40   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  22,246.46  22.95   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,272.88  26.43   
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,289.49  16.61   
 Daily Pivot  22,291.69  2.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  22,296.09  4.40   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,306.11  10.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  22,320.47  14.37   
 Weekly Pivot  22,332.98  12.51   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 High  22,359.88  26.90   
 Daily R1  22,364.28  4.40   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  22,382.62  18.34   
 Daily R2  22,432.46  49.85   
 Weekly R2  22,469.14  36.68   
 Monthly R1  22,610.29  141.14   
 Monthly R2  22,924.48  314.20   

Monday 9/25/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transport on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

A broadening bottom appears in green, at A.

As the chart show, this one broke out upward, but they can break out in any direction. In fact, they breakout upward 53% of the time, so that's about random.

I drew a red horizontal line starting from the July peak to today. This line tells me that the index has more room to move up (B), but it wouldn't surprise me to retrace here.

Why? Because the rise up from the low to the right of A shows a nice and strong push higher. It suggests a break is needed before another strong push higher occurs.

However, trying to predict when the index will retrace and then resume its upward move is exceedingly difficult.

In other words, I haven't a clue what's going to happen. I just know that B is approaching overhead resistance, so I'm expecting a pause soon.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of my book.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 63.01 points.
Tuesday: Up 39.45 points.
Wednesday: Up 41.79 points.
Thursday: Down 53.36 points.
Friday: Down 9.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 81.25 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 21.55 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1.99 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 22,419.51 on 09/21/2017.
     13.6% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.8% down from the high of 6,477.77 on 09/18/2017.
     19.1% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 2,508.85 on 09/20/2017.
     11.5% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/22/2017, the CPI had:

13 bearish patterns,
35 bullish patterns,
291 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 72.9%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  22,273  22,311  22,338  22,376  22,403 
Weekly  22,215  22,282  22,351  22,418  22,487 
Monthly  21,304  21,827  22,123  22,646  22,942 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,494  2,498  2,501  2,505  2,508 
Weekly  2,490  2,496  2,503  2,509  2,515 
Monthly  2,385  2,443  2,476  2,535  2,568 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,390  6,409  6,419  6,437  6,448 
Weekly  6,358  6,393  6,435  6,470  6,512 
Monthly  6,060  6,243  6,361  6,544  6,661 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 31.3%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
32Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
19Triple bottom
13Head-and-shoulders bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
6Triangle, ascending
5Triple top
4Broadening top
4Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Aerospace/Defense3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Machinery4. Precision Instrument
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Biotechnology
50. Furn/Home Furnishings50. Building Materials
51. Drug51. Information Services
52. Household Products52. Furn/Home Furnishings
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Short ETFs54. Short ETFs
55. Advertising55. Advertising
56. Petroleum (Producing)56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 9/22/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AESTriangle, symmetrical      08/08/201709/19/2017Electric Utility (East)
CBKBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/03/201709/21/2017Retail (Special Lines)
EBAYBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/09/201709/21/2017Internet
EIXRising wedge      08/15/201709/18/2017Electric Utility (West)
FDPTriple bottom      09/07/201709/20/2017Food Processing
INFNTriangle, descending      08/21/201709/21/2017Telecom. Equipment
NFGTriple top      07/26/201709/15/2017Natural Gas (Diversified)
OMCTriple bottom      09/05/201709/15/2017Advertising
PICOTriangle, symmetrical      08/29/201709/21/2017Diversified Co.
SCHWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/07/201709/15/2017Securities Brokerage
SODATriangle, descending      08/04/201709/21/2017Food Processing
TPXTriangle, symmetrical      08/22/201709/21/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
IYEBroadening bottom      06/16/201709/20/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
EWWFalling wedge      08/10/201709/21/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLKRising wedge      08/16/201709/19/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/14/2017 and 09/21/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $11.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.80 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.22%
Volume: 3,256,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,948,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/08/2017 to 09/19/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $1.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.28 or 12.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.61%
Volume: 222,700 shares. 3 month avg: 192,151 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/03/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $38.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.84 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.83%
Volume: 5,704,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,570,191 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/09/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $78.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.88 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.27%
Volume: 1,683,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,730,303 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/15/2017 to 09/18/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $47.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.39 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.28%
Volume: 430,600 shares. 3 month avg: 245,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 09/07/2017 to 09/20/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $8.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.93 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.94%
Volume: 1,383,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,904,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $56.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.74 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.64%
Volume: 179,100 shares. 3 month avg: 392,549 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/26/2017 to 09/15/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $74.23
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.46 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.78%
Volume: 2,043,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,886,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 09/05/2017 to 09/15/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $16.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.67 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.25%
Volume: 110,100 shares. 3 month avg: 88,462 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/29/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $42.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.92 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.61%
Volume: 6,500,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,444,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/07/2017 to 09/15/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $58.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.66 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 48.06%
Volume: 100,100 shares. 3 month avg: 223,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/04/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $62.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.46 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.92%
Volume: 407,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,069,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/22/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

DJ US Energy sector (iShares) (IYE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $36.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.12 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.12%
Volume: 141,300 shares. 3 month avg: 429,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2017 to 09/20/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt idx (EWW)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $55.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.23 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.75%
Volume: 1,503,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,928,288 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 08/10/2017 to 09/21/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

SPDR Technology Select Sector (XLK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 588
9/21/17 close: $58.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.74 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.95%
Volume: 8,052,000 shares. 3 month avg: 10,186,583 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/16/2017 to 09/19/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/21/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -5.28 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 573 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 315 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 258 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 136/239 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A head-and-shoulders top appears as marked on the chart. It's not a pretty one, which is to say, it's not perfect.

The right shoulder isn't as defined as the left one and the head looks like it's swelled up after listening to our president.

The index dropped only to A before recovering. Later in the day, it made another attempt at moving lower, but the bulls pushed back the attempt and price rose.

To me, that suggests strength going forward, but we'll have to see what happens on Thursday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,078.75    
 Monthly S1  6,267.40  188.64   
 Monthly Pivot  6,365.83  98.44   
 Weekly S2  6,390.11  24.28   
 Daily S2  6,393.62  3.51   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  6,414.23  20.61   
 Weekly S1  6,423.08  8.85   
 Daily S1  6,424.83  1.75   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,434.03  9.20   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,440.14  6.11   
 Weekly Pivot  6,443.67  3.53   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  6,445.44  1.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,446.25  0.81   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  6,456.04  9.79   
 Open  6,459.74  3.70   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  6,466.05  6.31   
 Weekly R1  6,476.64  10.59   
 Daily R1  6,476.65  0.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  6,497.23  20.58   
 Daily R2  6,497.26  0.03   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  6,554.48  57.22   
 Monthly R2  6,652.91  98.44   

Wednesday 9/20/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Nothing has change much on this chart over the past week. The indicator is still bullish, still bumping up against a reading of 100 (the thin blue line).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 24% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 24%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 36% on 11/03/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 498 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 18% on 11/03/2016.

Over the past week, the numbers above say that the lines have flattened out. That could be temporary, or it could mean a downtrend is coming.

I'm thinking that it spells weakness, so look for the markets to retrace some of their recent gains.

$ $ $

I released a new article on the no-nines trading strategy. You delay buying a stock if it has a 9 as the first digit left of the decimal until price rises to 50 cents above the whole dollar. Doing so increases profit and reduces failure by avoiding false breakouts.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 9/19/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.3% or 63.01 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1073 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 592 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 481 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 145/246 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The past several days have followed a reassuring upward trend that varied little from day to day except for today's action.

Today's sharp move up at the start followed by a horizontal move I think is typical. The index rested after that zip higher. Will another sharp run-up follow?

Perhaps the ascending triangle tells the answer.

I drew the red trendline starting from today backward until the start a week ago. I followed that by the horizontal green line to form the triangle.

This is not a pretty triangle and I even hesitate to call it one. Why? Because price does not cross the pattern enough near the start. Still, it does have that squeezed appearance.

It suggests an upward breakout tomorrow. That's supported by the above probability which also suggests an upward breakout.

On the flip side, the trendline measure rule suggests the index could drop by the height of the bump near the opening session. Eyeballing it, that means a drop of about, oh, 100 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,394.22    
 Weekly S2  21,830.82  436.60   
 Monthly S1  21,862.79  31.96   
 Monthly Pivot  22,068.90  206.12   
 Weekly S1  22,081.09  12.18   
 Weekly Pivot  22,178.05  96.97   
 Daily S2  22,251.17  73.12   
 Low  22,283.35  32.18   
 Daily S1  22,291.26  7.91   
 Open  22,297.92  6.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,310.96  13.04   
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,319.48  8.53   
 Daily Pivot  22,323.44  3.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,328.01  4.57   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  22,331.35  3.34   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  22,355.62  24.27   
 Daily R1  22,363.53  7.91   
 Daily R2  22,395.71  32.18   
 Weekly R1  22,428.32  32.61   
 Weekly R2  22,525.28  96.97   
 Monthly R1  22,537.47  12.18   
 Monthly R2  22,743.58  206.12   

Monday 9/18/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Let's first look at the distinct image of a double top: AB. It's stands like a castle above the surrounding plain.

Yes, tops A and B are not at the same price, but little is perfect in this world. The pattern confirms when the index closes below the valley between the two peaks, which it does when it closes below the red line.

It eventually makes its way down to C, fulfilling the measure rule for double tops (the height of the chart pattern subtracted from the breakout price).

Recently, circled, the index has struggled to find direction. I've seen this in the past where a stock or security makes large price swings. I feel, but haven't proved, that this is a topping sign. However, it could be a head-and-shoulders top forming.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 259.58 points.
Tuesday: Up 61.49 points.
Wednesday: Up 39.32 points.
Thursday: Up 45.3 points.
Friday: Up 64.86 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 470.55 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 88.28 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 38.8 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 22,275.02 on 09/15/2017.
     13.2% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 6,464.27 on 09/15/2017.
     19.5% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 2,500.23 on 09/15/2017.
     11.4% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/15/2017, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
45 bullish patterns,
306 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 95.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  22,192  22,230  22,253  22,291  22,313 
Weekly  21,810  22,039  22,157  22,386  22,504 
Monthly  21,373  21,821  22,048  22,495  22,723 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,491  2,496  2,498  2,503  2,505 
Weekly  2,466  2,483  2,492  2,509  2,517 
Monthly  2,390  2,445  2,473  2,528  2,555 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,400  6,424  6,444  6,469  6,489 
Weekly  6,388  6,418  6,441  6,472  6,495 
Monthly  6,076  6,262  6,363  6,549  6,650 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 6 months up 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 6 months up 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 29.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
40Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
19Pipe bottom
15Triple bottom
13Head-and-shoulders bottom
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
6Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
6Triangle, ascending
4Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Medical Supplies
2. Computer Software and Svcs2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Semiconductor
4. Precision Instrument4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Biotechnology5. Precision Instrument
50. Building Materials50. Insurance (Life)
51. Information Services51. Metal Fabricating
52. Furn/Home Furnishings52. Securities Brokerage
53. Food Processing53. Short ETFs
54. Short ETFs54. Food Processing
55. Advertising55. Advertising
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 9/15/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 4.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/18/201709/08/2017Telecom. Equipment
AESTriangle, symmetrical      08/08/201709/14/2017Electric Utility (East)
AXETriple bottom      08/21/201709/08/2017Electronics
ANTMHead-and-shoulders top      08/22/201709/11/2017Medical Services
APAHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/21/201709/08/2017Petroleum (Producing)
BCPCRising wedge      08/14/201709/14/2017Chemical (Specialty)
BIGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/25/201709/08/2017Retail Store
BIODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/18/201709/08/2017Medical Supplies
CBTTriangle, ascending      08/11/201709/14/2017Chemical (Diversified)
CRHTriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201709/14/2017Cement and Aggregates
FFGPipe bottom      08/28/201709/05/2017Insurance (Life)
FLSHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/11/201709/08/2017Machinery
GDRectangle top      08/07/201709/14/2017Aerospace/Defense
HSCTriangle, ascending      08/08/201709/14/2017Diversified Co.
HSYBroadening bottom      07/25/201709/13/2017Food Processing
HURCTriple bottom      07/31/201709/08/2017Machinery
ITGRTriangle, ascending      08/15/201709/08/2017Electronics
IPITriangle, symmetrical      08/03/201709/08/2017Chemical (Diversified)
MLMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/31/201709/11/2017Cement and Aggregates
MLIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/18/201709/08/2017Metal Fabricating
NKEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/29/201709/08/2017Shoe
NIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/28/201709/12/2017Electric Utility (Central)
JWNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/21/201709/11/2017Retail Store
PNWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/29/201709/11/2017Electric Utility (West)
DGXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/01/201709/12/2017Medical Services
TEVAPipe bottom      08/28/201709/05/2017Drug
ITBBroadening top      07/12/201709/13/2017Homebuilding
XLYHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      08/11/201709/08/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLKRising wedge      08/16/201709/14/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/07/2017 and 09/14/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $22.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.45 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.00%
Volume: 213,700 shares. 3 month avg: 327,889 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/18/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $11.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.82 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.10%
Volume: 3,676,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,961,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/08/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $76.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.89 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.49%
Volume: 98,600 shares. 3 month avg: 117,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $186.75
1 Month avg volatility: $2.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $195.81 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.89%
Volume: 1,988,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,419,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 08/22/2017 to 09/11/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $42.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.77 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.48%
Volume: 4,118,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,720,962 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 490 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $76.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.92 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.96%
Volume: 91,200 shares. 3 month avg: 87,348 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/14/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $49.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.43 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.69%
Volume: 1,201,200 shares. 3 month avg: 953,928 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/25/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 233 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $224.37
1 Month avg volatility: $3.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $211.87 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.09%
Volume: 315,600 shares. 3 month avg: 160,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/18/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $53.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.49 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.56%
Volume: 369,000 shares. 3 month avg: 346,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $35.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.37 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.56%
Volume: 626,200 shares. 3 month avg: 592,317 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $69.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.63 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.88%
Volume: 30,100 shares. 3 month avg: 28,978 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/28/2017 to 09/05/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $41.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.32 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.92%
Volume: 909,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,391,246 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $197.63
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $192.40 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.46%
Volume: 920,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,110,965 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/07/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $17.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.61 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.25%
Volume: 299,700 shares. 3 month avg: 515,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/08/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 368 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $109.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $106.26 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.69%
Volume: 537,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,066,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 07/25/2017 to 09/13/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $37.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.72 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.54%
Volume: 21,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,998 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/31/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Integer Holdings Corp (ITGR)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $46.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.03 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 59.08%
Volume: 173,500 shares. 3 month avg: 155,317 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/15/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $3.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.25 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 78.85%
Volume: 665,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,918,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/03/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $199.44
1 Month avg volatility: $5.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $213.76 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.97%
Volume: 956,300 shares. 3 month avg: 663,880 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/31/2017 to 09/11/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $30.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.12 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.80%
Volume: 257,500 shares. 3 month avg: 146,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/18/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $53.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.63 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.71%
Volume: 7,480,900 shares. 3 month avg: 9,141,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/29/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $26.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.47 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.59%
Volume: 1,528,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,877,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/28/2017 to 09/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $46.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.11 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.48%
Volume: 3,296,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,146,432 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 09/11/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $88.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $90.79 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.02%
Volume: 532,800 shares. 3 month avg: 656,702 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/29/2017 to 09/11/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 264 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $105.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $108.92 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.91%
Volume: 1,131,400 shares. 3 month avg: 810,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/01/2017 to 09/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 583 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $18.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.73 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -49.35%
Volume: 18,297,100 shares. 3 month avg: 19,063,466 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/28/2017 to 09/05/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/03/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/02/2017 and a 38% chance by 02/01/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 200 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $34.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.82 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.67%
Volume: 2,126,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,719,185 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/12/2017 to 09/13/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $90.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $88.82 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.81%
Volume: 3,514,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,893,605 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 09/08/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

SPDR Technology Select Sector (XLK)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 588
9/14/17 close: $58.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.97 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.40%
Volume: 7,631,100 shares. 3 month avg: 10,700,842 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/16/2017 to 09/14/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/14/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 5.91 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 664 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 367 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 297 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 136/238 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I started to draw a channel, beginning with the bottom red line. But when I tried to draw the top line, I saw the spike early in the line (Tuesday's open).

Hmmm.

I drew the top line from the top of that spike and there it was. An ascending triangle. Yum. This one appears to have broken out upward already, right at or near the close.

I was thinking it would likely breakout upward... Anyway, we'll have to see if the index will follow through on Thursday with a gain or not.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,089.88    
 Monthly S1  6,275.04  185.15   
 Weekly S2  6,315.18  40.14   
 Monthly Pivot  6,362.34  47.17   
 Weekly S1  6,387.68  25.34   
 Weekly Pivot  6,407.10  19.41   
 Daily S2  6,424.05  16.95   
 Low  6,433.20  9.15   
 Open  6,440.72  7.52   
 Daily S1  6,442.12  1.40   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,443.60  1.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,446.81  3.21   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,450.02  3.21   
 Daily Pivot  6,451.27  1.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  6,460.19  8.92   
 High  6,460.42  0.23   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  6,469.34  8.92   
 Daily R2  6,478.49  9.15   
 Weekly R1  6,479.60  1.11   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  6,499.02  19.41   
 Monthly R1  6,547.50  48.48   
 Monthly R2  6,634.80  87.31   

Wednesday 9/13/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator remains bullish as the green vertical bar on the right shows.

Notice that the blue indicator line has hit its ceiling. It will reverse sooner or later, so it suggests the index will retrace.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 24% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 36% on 11/03/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 500 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 18% on 11/03/2016.

Both lines have improved, adding to the bullish trend outlined by the prior chart.

The uptrend has moved higher for the last two weeks and shows no sign of faltering.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 9/12/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.2% or 259.58 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 298 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 164 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 134 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 144/245 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Nothing much happened on the chart except for the pattern outlined in red.

It's an inverted and ascending scallop. They breakout upward most often. Why? Because price at the end of the pattern is closer to the top of the pattern than it is to the bottom.

That suggests more of an up move to come.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,366.84    
 Weekly S2  21,684.57  317.73   
 Monthly S1  21,712.10  27.53   
 Weekly S1  21,870.97  158.87   
 Daily S2  21,878.11  7.14   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  21,896.03  17.92   
 Low  21,927.79  31.76   
 Open  21,927.79  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  21,945.61  17.82   
 Daily S1  21,967.74  22.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,981.01  13.27   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,997.45  16.44   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,013.88  16.44   
 Daily Pivot  22,017.42  3.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  22,057.37  39.95   
 High  22,067.10  9.73   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  22,082.43  15.33   
 Daily R1  22,107.05  24.62   
 Weekly R2  22,107.49  0.44   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  22,156.73  49.24   
 Monthly R1  22,290.87  134.14   
 Monthly R2  22,524.38  233.50   

Monday 9/11/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show a daily chart of the S&P 500 index.

I drew a green up-sloping trendline, showing that the index has changed from trending upward to moving horizontally in the last month.

Recently, a head-and-shoulders bottom appeared in red. I have marked the left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) on the chart.

A throwback appears at A. Price has returned to the breakout price and recovered some.

Often, after a throwback completes, price rises to make a new high. I expect that to happen.

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 234.25 points.
Wednesday: Up 54.33 points.
Thursday: Down 22.86 points.
Friday: Up 13.01 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 189.77 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 75.14 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 15.12 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 22,179.11 on 08/08/2017.
     10.8% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 6,460.84 on 07/27/2017.
     17.8% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 2,490.87 on 08/08/2017.
     9.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/08/2017, the CPI had:

8 bearish patterns,
13 bullish patterns,
176 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 61.9%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  21,676  21,737  21,792  21,853  21,907 
Weekly  21,598  21,698  21,810  21,909  22,021 
Monthly  21,280  21,539  21,859  22,118  22,438 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,455  2,458  2,463  2,466  2,470 
Weekly  2,435  2,448  2,460  2,473  2,485 
Monthly  2,383  2,422  2,457  2,496  2,530 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,332  6,346  6,369  6,383  6,405 
Weekly  6,282  6,321  6,374  6,413  6,466 
Monthly  6,057  6,208  6,329  6,481  6,601 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 20.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
40Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14Pipe bottom
12Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Triangle, symmetrical
9Triple bottom
8Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
4Triangle, descending
4Triple top
4Dead-cat bounce

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Medical Supplies1. Semiconductor
2. Computer Software and Svcs2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Medical Supplies
5. Precision Instrument5. Aerospace/Defense
50. Insurance (Life)50. Furn/Home Furnishings
51. Metal Fabricating51. Metal Fabricating
52. Securities Brokerage52. Building Materials
53. Short ETFs53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Food Processing54. Food Processing
55. Advertising55. Advertising
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Petroleum (Producing)
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 9/8/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 598 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELTriple top      08/15/201709/01/2017Insurance (Life)
BERYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/21/201709/07/2017Packaging and Container
CLXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/23/201709/01/2017Household Products
COHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/25/201709/01/2017Apparel
CSGSRectangle bottom      08/15/201709/07/2017IT Services
ERAHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/01/201709/01/2017Air Transport
FICOTriangle, ascending      08/11/201709/07/2017IT Services
IPITriangle, symmetrical      08/03/201709/07/2017Chemical (Diversified)
KMBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/17/201709/01/2017Household Products
LNCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/25/201709/01/2017Insurance (Life)
NCSDead-cat bounce      09/07/201709/07/2017Building Materials
PFEBroadening top      07/03/201709/05/2017Drug
PRUDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/28/201709/01/2017Insurance (Life)
YUMEPipe top      08/21/201708/28/2017Advertising

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/31/2017 and 09/07/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $25.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.79 or 11.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.24%
Volume: 1,357,400 shares. 3 month avg: 571,763 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 08/15/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 150 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $56.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.43 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.84%
Volume: 1,084,800 shares. 3 month avg: 877,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/21/2017 to 09/07/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Clorox Co, The (CLX)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $136.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $139.39 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.34%
Volume: 691,700 shares. 3 month avg: 641,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/23/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Coach Inc. (COH)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $40.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.09 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.11%
Volume: 3,353,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,206,038 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/25/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

CSG Systems International Inc (CSGS)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $38.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.58 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.12%
Volume: 101,300 shares. 3 month avg: 160,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/15/2017 to 09/07/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $10.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.14 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.42%
Volume: 56,900 shares. 3 month avg: 65,468 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/01/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $139.33
1 Month avg volatility: $2.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $134.84 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.87%
Volume: 133,900 shares. 3 month avg: 156,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 09/07/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $3.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.12 or 14.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 75.96%
Volume: 1,447,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,903,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/03/2017 to 09/07/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $119.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.47 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.81%
Volume: 1,880,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,439,118 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/17/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $65.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.77 or 7.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.58%
Volume: 1,325,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,417,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/25/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $13.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.04 or 12.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.70%
Volume: 4,977,900 shares. 3 month avg: 512,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/07/2017 to 09/07/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $33.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.79 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.65%
Volume: 17,651,000 shares. 3 month avg: 17,686,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/03/2017 to 09/05/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $98.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $103.69 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.20%
Volume: 2,675,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,927,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/28/2017 to 09/01/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 590
9/7/17 close: $4.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.56 or 23.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.42%
Volume: 467,800 shares. 3 month avg: 298,618 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/28/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/31/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/30/2017 and a 38% chance by 03/01/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/7/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.3% or 17.74 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 623 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 342 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 281 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 135/237 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I saw this chart, I focused in on the ABC pattern highlighted on the chart.

After a strong move upward (or downward in this case over the last day or two), price retraces in a stair-step pattern. After the pattern ends, the trend should resume its downward move (following the red arrow). I don't really believe that, but I guess we'll see. I feel we should recover more from the large decline posted on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,067.59    
 Weekly S2  6,136.31  68.72   
 Monthly S1  6,230.45  94.14   
 Weekly S1  6,264.81  34.36   
 Daily S2  6,334.44  69.63   
 Monthly Pivot  6,340.05  5.61   
 Low  6,356.20  16.15   
 Weekly Pivot  6,357.23  1.03   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  6,363.87  6.64   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,375.76  11.88   
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,381.80  6.04   
 Daily Pivot  6,385.64  3.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,387.84  2.21   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  6,393.31  5.47   
 Open  6,394.35  1.04   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  6,407.40  13.05   
 Daily R1  6,415.07  7.67   
 Daily R2  6,436.84  21.76   
 Weekly R1  6,485.73  48.89   
 Monthly R1  6,502.91  17.18   
 Weekly R2  6,578.15  75.24   
 Monthly R2  6,612.51  34.36   

Wednesday 9/6/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Today's plunge in the indices took the indicator down with it. A red, bearish, vertical line appears on the chart today as a result.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 36% on 11/03/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 500 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 18% on 11/03/2016.

The bearishness of the prior chart is at odds with what we see on this chart.

The red line continues to climb, rising 3 percentage points (from 28% of bearish stocks to 25%). Even the blue line joined the fun this week by improving one percentage point.

Apparently the two lines didn't get today's memo. So maybe they are correct and today was a fluke. My belief that as severe as today's downtrend was, it doesn't mean much. Just a blip. But we'll see.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 9/5/17. Selling a Long-Term Holding

Picture of a wasp.

 

 

I released new research on a reliable sell signal for buy-and-hold positions.

It consists of three or four candles which appear at the end of a trend on the monthly charts.

It works 79% of the time and gets you out of a decline which averages 43%.

Read the article at the above link for details.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Top


Friday 9/1/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 600 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDead-cat bounce      08/25/201708/30/2017Chemical (Diversified)
AKAMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/201708/29/2017E-Commerce
AXEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/21/201708/29/2017Electronics
ACGLRectangle bottom      08/09/201708/31/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BERYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/21/201708/31/2017Packaging and Container
BATriangle, ascending      08/07/201708/31/2017Aerospace/Defense
CALPipe bottom      08/14/201708/21/2017Shoe
CGIFlag, high and tight      07/12/201708/31/2017Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CETriple top      08/07/201708/25/2017Chemical (Basic)
CBKDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/03/201708/28/2017Retail (Special Lines)
XRAYPipe bottom      08/14/201708/21/2017Medical Supplies
DDSPipe bottom      08/14/201708/21/2017Retail Store
FLIRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/201708/29/2017Aerospace/Defense
GOOGLTriple bottom      08/11/201708/29/2017Internet
HSICTriple bottom      08/10/201708/30/2017Medical Supplies
HOLXTriple bottom      08/11/201708/29/2017Medical Supplies
INCYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/201708/28/2017Drug
IDTIHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/11/201708/29/2017Semiconductor
INTUBroadening top      08/01/201708/30/2017Computer Software and Svcs
MYLTriple bottom      08/09/201708/30/2017Drug
NWPXPipe bottom      08/14/201708/21/2017Building Materials
SIGITriangle, symmetrical      08/09/201708/28/2017Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VFCHead-and-shoulders top      08/08/201708/25/2017Apparel
VMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/201708/25/2017Cement and Aggregates
YUMEDead-cat bounce      08/31/201708/31/2017Advertising
IEODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/18/201708/29/2017Petroleum (Integrated)
FDNTriangle, ascending      08/10/201708/29/2017Internet
SOXXTriangle, symmetrical      08/08/201708/29/2017Semiconductor
EWQDiamond top      07/25/201708/31/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
QQQHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/10/201708/29/2017Long ETFs
PHOTriple bottom      08/11/201708/29/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/201708/29/2017Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLBHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      08/03/201708/29/2017Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/24/2017 and 08/31/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $10.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.71 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.71%
Volume: 463,800 shares. 3 month avg: 218,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/25/2017 to 08/30/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $47.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.02 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.29%
Volume: 1,719,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,144,620 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $73.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.23 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.95%
Volume: 85,200 shares. 3 month avg: 124,142 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $97.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.27 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.81%
Volume: 688,300 shares. 3 month avg: 566,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/09/2017 to 08/31/2017
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $56.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.34 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.41%
Volume: 952,800 shares. 3 month avg: 851,298 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/21/2017 to 08/31/2017
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 26 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $239.66
1 Month avg volatility: $3.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $232.00 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 53.94%
Volume: 3,066,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,498,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/07/2017 to 08/31/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $26.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.83 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.79%
Volume: 755,800 shares. 3 month avg: 354,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2017 to 08/21/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $5.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.11 or 17.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.07%
Volume: 436,800 shares. 3 month avg: 834,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/12/2017 to 08/31/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/02/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/31/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Celanese Corp (CE)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $97.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.95 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.22%
Volume: 848,500 shares. 3 month avg: 925,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 08/07/2017 to 08/25/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Top

Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $1.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.51 or 16.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.87%
Volume: 291,500 shares. 3 month avg: 176,283 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/03/2017 to 08/28/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $56.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.44 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.01%
Volume: 1,515,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,561,752 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2017 to 08/21/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Dilliards Inc (DDS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $60.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.66 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.01%
Volume: 435,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,130,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2017 to 08/21/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $38.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.98 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.00%
Volume: 950,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,112,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Google (GOOGL)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $955.24
1 Month avg volatility: $11.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $923.92 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.54%
Volume: 1,689,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,832,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $173.68
1 Month avg volatility: $3.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $163.95 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.48%
Volume: 623,500 shares. 3 month avg: 431,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/10/2017 to 08/30/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $38.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.47 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.79%
Volume: 2,742,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,916,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $137.41
1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $123.01 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.04%
Volume: 3,809,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,413,074 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/28/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $24.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.50 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.88%
Volume: 907,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,556,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Intuit Inc (INTU)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $141.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $145.89 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.42%
Volume: 2,273,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,376,414 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/01/2017 to 08/30/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $31.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.33 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.48%
Volume: 6,681,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,348,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/09/2017 to 08/30/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $18.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.63 or 14.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.50%
Volume: 69,200 shares. 3 month avg: 65,592 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/14/2017 to 08/21/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 167 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $50.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.68 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.07%
Volume: 253,300 shares. 3 month avg: 181,220 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/09/2017 to 08/28/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $62.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.92 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.84%
Volume: 2,135,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,482,620 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 08/08/2017 to 08/25/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $121.26
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.97 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.11%
Volume: 2,077,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,206,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/25/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

YuMe Inc (YUME)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $4.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.56 or 34.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.59%
Volume: 1,091,800 shares. 3 month avg: 264,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/31/2017 to 08/31/2017
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $52.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.84 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.17%
Volume: 40,900 shares. 3 month avg: 69,048 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/18/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

First Trust DJ Internet ETF (FDN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $100.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $97.39 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.92%
Volume: 308,000 shares. 3 month avg: 366,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/10/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $151.25
1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $145.94 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.25%
Volume: 357,300 shares. 3 month avg: 534,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/08/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

MSCI France Index (EWQ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $29.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.09 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.39%
Volume: 930,400 shares. 3 month avg: 799,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/25/2017 to 08/31/2017
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

PowerShares QQQ -- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $146.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.13 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.40%
Volume: 37,465,600 shares. 3 month avg: 38,889,988 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/10/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $27.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.31 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.17%
Volume: 34,300 shares. 3 month avg: 36,715 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $89.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $87.97 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.15%
Volume: 3,988,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,146,732 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/21/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 592
8/31/17 close: $55.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.07 or 1.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.80%
Volume: 4,616,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,962,285 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 08/03/2017 to 08/29/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.