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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
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As of 04/28/2017
20,941 -40.82 -0.2%
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20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
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725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
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September 2016 Headlines


Archives


Friday 9/30/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 629 stocks searched, or 3.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELRectangle top      08/29/201609/29/2016Insurance (Life)
AMGNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/02/201609/23/2016Biotechnology
AWIDiamond bottom      09/16/201609/29/2016Building Materials
AGORectangle top      08/05/201609/23/2016Insurance (Life)
CGIRectangle top      09/09/201609/29/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CNPBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      08/23/201609/27/2016Electric Utility (Central)
DOPipe bottom      09/12/201609/19/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EQTBroadening top      08/30/201609/27/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCBroadening bottom      08/19/201609/29/2016Electric Utility (East)
FTNTTriangle, ascending      07/28/201609/29/2016Computer Software and Svcs
GPNTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201609/29/2016Computer Software and Svcs
HLITFlag, high and tight      08/03/201609/28/2016Telecom. Equipment
HURCTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201609/29/2016Machinery
KBHBroadening top      08/03/201609/29/2016Homebuilding
MDCPipe bottom      09/12/201609/19/2016Homebuilding
NBRPipe bottom      09/12/201609/19/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEPipe bottom      09/12/201609/19/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ASGNTriangle, symmetrical      07/26/201609/29/2016Human Resources
PORChannel      08/12/201609/29/2016Electric Utility (West)
RGATriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201609/29/2016Insurance (Life)
SMRTDead-cat bounce      09/29/201609/29/2016Apparel
SSYSRectangle bottom      05/19/201609/29/2016Electronics
SYMCTriangle, symmetrical      09/12/201609/29/2016Computer Software and Svcs
TECHTriangle, symmetrical      09/08/201609/23/2016Biotechnology
TPXDead-cat bounce      09/28/201609/28/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
SLVTriangle, symmetrical      08/02/201609/29/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
EWHTriangle, symmetrical      09/09/201609/29/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/22/2016 and 09/29/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $17.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.48 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.34%
Volume: 501,900 shares. 3 month avg: 587,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/29/2016 to 09/29/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/06/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/05/2016.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $165.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.95 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.92%
Volume: 3,803,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,921,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 09/23/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $40.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.62 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.41%
Volume: 683,900 shares. 3 month avg: 532,106 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 09/16/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $27.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.52 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.05%
Volume: 1,191,500 shares. 3 month avg: 746,638 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 09/23/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 595 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $8.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.62 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.45%
Volume: 314,700 shares. 3 month avg: 398,957 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/09/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 166 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $23.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.96 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.43%
Volume: 3,571,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,646,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 08/23/2016 to 09/27/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $17.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.51 or 13.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.55%
Volume: 6,299,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,039,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 312 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $69.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.88 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 33.42%
Volume: 2,337,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,581,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/30/2016 to 09/27/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $33.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.09 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.88%
Volume: 5,315,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,941,572 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/19/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $35.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.58 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.27%
Volume: 1,045,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,511,532 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/28/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Global Payments Inc (GPN)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $76.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $73.30 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.95%
Volume: 804,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,250,462 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $5.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.04 or 14.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.47%
Volume: 1,704,500 shares. 3 month avg: 627,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/03/2016 to 09/28/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $27.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.37 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.52%
Volume: 4,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,080 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $16.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.51 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 30.49%
Volume: 2,381,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,282,145 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/03/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $25.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.65 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 299,300 shares. 3 month avg: 414,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $11.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.40 or 11.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.66%
Volume: 13,542,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,307,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 609 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $6.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.43 or 13.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.28%
Volume: 20,445,000 shares. 3 month avg: 9,712,954 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $36.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.32 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.80%
Volume: 192,700 shares. 3 month avg: 295,358 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/26/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $42.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.13 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.32%
Volume: 362,100 shares. 3 month avg: 579,534 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 08/12/2016 to 09/29/2016

Top

Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $107.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.77 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.18%
Volume: 148,100 shares. 3 month avg: 257,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $6.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.44 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.39%
Volume: 717,600 shares. 3 month avg: 120,242 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/29/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $23.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.91 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.00%
Volume: 1,036,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,045,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/19/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Symantec Corp (SYMC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 44 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $25.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.99 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.10%
Volume: 10,029,700 shares. 3 month avg: 9,040,177 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/12/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $108.26
1 Month avg volatility: $2.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.50 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.29%
Volume: 205,100 shares. 3 month avg: 181,095 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/08/2016 to 09/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 502 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $55.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.26 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.60%
Volume: 4,743,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,574,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/28/2016 to 09/28/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $18.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.53 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.30%
Volume: 5,776,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,140,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Hong Kong Index fund (EWH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 621
9/29/16 close: $21.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.50 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.65%
Volume: 2,393,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,929,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/09/2016 to 09/29/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 9/29/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 12.84 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 635 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 368 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 267 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/196 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The thin red line is a potential support line should the index turn down.

The parallel thicker red lines are a channel. This one slopes upward. It suggests that the index will rise up to the top of the channel before turning back down.

That makes sense when you consider that Friday's high of about 5340 is where the red line tops out. Maybe we'll see a rise that far.

Should the index head lower, it should find support at the thin trendline, as I mentioned, but it could also continue down to a more robust support area, say 5,240 to 5,260.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,008.00    
 Monthly S1  5,163.27  155.28   
 Weekly S2  5,174.81  11.54   
 Weekly S1  5,246.68  71.87   
 Monthly Pivot  5,253.08  6.40   
 Daily S2  5,272.30  19.22   
 Low  5,284.89  12.60   
 Weekly Pivot  5,294.78  9.89   
 Daily S1  5,295.42  0.64   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,298.54  3.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,302.76  4.22   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,306.97  4.22   
 Daily Pivot  5,308.02  1.05   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,312.73  4.71   
 Close  5,318.55  5.82   
 High  5,320.62  2.07   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,331.15  10.53   
 Daily R2  5,343.75  12.60   
 Weekly R1  5,366.65  22.90   
 Monthly R1  5,408.35  41.70   
 Weekly R2  5,414.75  6.40   
 Monthly R2  5,498.16  83.41   

Wednesday 9/28/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green bar on the far right is a bullish signal. But as the index climbs, it's bumping up against overhead resistance. And that could mean a downturn is coming.

Does the next chart shed any light on this?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 527 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line ends the one-week period at the same level that it began. It's down slightly from the early September peak.

The blue line is more bullish. The average stock in my database of about 600 securities is down 15% from their peaks, an improvement over the prior week.

While the blue line is bullish, it's not a strong indicator of things to come, I think.

I believe the evidence suggests a weakening structure behind the indices. In other words, I expect them to drop, but I could just as easily be wrong. They might shock us in an October surprise.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/27/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.9% or -166.62 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 418 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 198 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 220 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/208 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red trendline shows how the index broke through support, but intraday support is often weak. Same with resistance.

Of interest is the descending triangle, highlighted here in blue. Price pierced the bottom of the triangle but it's not clear from the chart whether the index closed below the triangle. I don't think so.

To me, the index appears to be resting on support (18,050 and 18,100), but with the above probabilities pointing to a lower close on Tuesday, I'm also looking for weakness but hoping for a show of strength. Got that?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,600.16    
 Monthly S1  17,847.49  247.34   
 Weekly S2  17,855.76  8.26   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  17,975.29  119.54   
 Daily S2  17,997.53  22.24   
 Daily S1  18,046.18  48.65   
 Low  18,083.32  37.14   
 Close  18,094.83  11.51   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  18,131.97  37.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,134.68  2.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,150.54  15.86   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,166.40  15.87   
 Daily R1  18,180.62  14.21   
 Weekly Pivot  18,212.59  31.97   
 High  18,217.76  5.17   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  18,217.76  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  18,239.55  21.79   
 Daily R2  18,266.41  26.86   
 Weekly R1  18,332.12  65.71   
 Monthly R1  18,486.88  154.76   
 Weekly R2  18,569.42  82.53   
 Monthly R2  18,878.94  309.52   

Monday 9/26/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew two horizontal red lines outlining support and resistance areas on the chart. I chose to connect the peaks for overhead resistance and the valleys for underlying support.

Those areas are where the index turned.

Notice at A that the index didn't quite make it down to the bottom line. That could be a bullish indication.

The dip is a chart pattern I've studied called a partial decline, in this case, in a rectangle top.

It suggests, but does not guarantee, that price will break out upward on the move from A to the top line. But as you can see, it appears the index is turning back down.

And that could mean a trip to the bottom trendline.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 3.63 points.
Tuesday: Up 9.79 points.
Wednesday: Up 163.74 points.
Thursday: Up 98.76 points.
Friday: Down 131.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 137.65 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 61.18 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 25.53 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.2% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     18.2% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     26.0% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     19.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
New home sales10:00 MC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Durable goods orders8:30 WBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Gross domestic product8:30 ThBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Personal income & consumption8:30 FC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 FC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/23/2016, the CPI had:

9 bearish patterns,
13 bullish patterns,
400 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 59.1%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,171  18,216  18,300  18,345  18,429 
Weekly  17,911  18,086  18,268  18,443  18,625 
Monthly  17,656  17,959  18,295  18,598  18,934 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,158  2,161  2,167  2,171  2,177 
Weekly  2,116  2,140  2,160  2,184  2,204 
Monthly  2,085  2,125  2,159  2,199  2,233 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,284  5,295  5,312  5,323  5,340 
Weekly  5,171  5,238  5,291  5,358  5,410 
Monthly  5,004  5,155  5,249  5,400  5,494 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 30.0%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 32.9%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Triangle, symmetrical
16Pipe bottom
8Triangle, ascending
7Triangle, descending
7Broadening top
6Head-and-shoulders top
6Dead-cat bounce
5Rectangle top
5Triple bottom
4Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Natural Gas (Diversified)2. E-Commerce
3. E-Commerce3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Medical Supplies4. Medical Services
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Biotechnology
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Air Transport51. Air Transport
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Shoe53. Retail Store
54. Retail Store54. Shoe
55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/23/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 630 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 13 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABAXPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Medical Supplies
AMATPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ARRSBroadening top      08/16/201609/19/2016Telecom. Equipment
ASNADead-cat bounce      09/20/201609/20/2016Apparel
BMRNTriangle, symmetrical      08/04/201609/22/2016Biotechnology
CGNXPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Precision Instrument
FLEXPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Electronics
FMCPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Chemical (Basic)
GNWTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/201609/22/2016Insurance (Life)
HHSTriangle, descending      07/21/201609/22/2016Advertising
HNIDead-cat bounce      09/20/201609/20/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
TILEHead-and-shoulders top      08/08/201609/19/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
KLACTriangle, symmetrical      09/13/201609/22/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Metal Fabricating
NVDAPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Semiconductor
QCOMPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Telecom. Equipment
SRBroadening wedge, descending      08/23/201609/22/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
TMOPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Precision Instrument
UNMDiamond top      09/02/201609/20/2016Insurance (Diversified)
SOXXPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Semiconductor
SMHPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Semiconductor
EPPBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/10/201609/22/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
THDPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
QLDPipe bottom      09/06/201609/12/2016Long ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/15/2016 and 09/22/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abaxis Inc (ABAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $52.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.71 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.10%
Volume: 128,500 shares. 3 month avg: 152,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $30.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.00 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 62.24%
Volume: 15,650,900 shares. 3 month avg: 12,995,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $29.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.87 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.09%
Volume: 2,273,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,008,798 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/16/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 617 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $5.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.65 or 12.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -40.00%
Volume: 5,624,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,997,229 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/20/2016 to 09/20/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $97.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $89.13 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.98%
Volume: 1,053,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,853,849 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/04/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $51.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.61 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 53.36%
Volume: 463,600 shares. 3 month avg: 372,506 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $13.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.08 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.50%
Volume: 9,047,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,754,912 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $48.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.62 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.97%
Volume: 542,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,133,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $4.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.45 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 32.71%
Volume: 6,067,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,772,140 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 613 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $1.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.78 or 13.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.54%
Volume: 106,400 shares. 3 month avg: 346,962 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/21/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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HNI (HON Industries) (HNI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $41.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.96 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.34%
Volume: 529,000 shares. 3 month avg: 230,998 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/20/2016 to 09/20/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 521 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $16.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.21 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.52%
Volume: 754,100 shares. 3 month avg: 591,375 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 08/08/2016 to 09/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $69.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.73 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.23%
Volume: 1,565,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,394,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/13/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $17.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.19 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.57%
Volume: 11,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,708 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 7 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $65.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.64 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 97.27%
Volume: 7,715,100 shares. 3 month avg: 10,185,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $63.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.54 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.08%
Volume: 7,895,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,631,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Spire (SR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $65.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.63 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.69%
Volume: 293,800 shares. 3 month avg: 229,017 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 08/23/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $157.66
1 Month avg volatility: $2.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.23 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.15%
Volume: 1,599,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,449,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $35.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.05 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.67%
Volume: 1,420,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,774,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 09/02/2016 to 09/20/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $110.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.04 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.95%
Volume: 352,200 shares. 3 month avg: 560,865 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Market Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $67.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.68 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.21%
Volume: 3,121,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,746,080 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index fund (EPP)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $41.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.10 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.30%
Volume: 454,700 shares. 3 month avg: 717,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/10/2016 to 09/22/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 252 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $74.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.80 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.47%
Volume: 217,800 shares. 3 month avg: 264,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 105 out of 622
9/22/16 close: $87.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $83.58 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.29%
Volume: 900,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,058,606 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/06/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 9/22/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 53.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 213 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 142 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 71 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 115/195 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I suppose you can call the combination of red and green lines an ascending triangle. It's not really, though...

The red line highlights support along the bottoms over the last several days. Notice that it trends upward.

I drew the green line near the tops of price, just to highlight that the index pushed through overhead resistance.

We could see the index drop a bit to touch the green line on Thursday (a throwback) before it resumes its upward move.

Today's rally was a surprise for me, a pleasant one. How do you spell green? M-O-N-E-Y.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,037.05    
 Weekly S2  5,058.94  21.89   
 Monthly S1  5,166.12  107.18   
 Weekly S1  5,177.06  10.94   
 Daily S2  5,210.71  33.65   
 Weekly Pivot  5,215.92  5.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  5,226.86  10.94   
 Low  5,233.94  7.08   
 Daily S1  5,252.95  19.01   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,258.95  6.00   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  5,263.65  4.70   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,266.67  3.02   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,274.39  7.72   
 Daily Pivot  5,276.17  1.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,295.18  19.01   
 High  5,299.40  4.22   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,318.41  19.01   
 Weekly R1  5,334.04  15.63   
 Daily R2  5,341.63  7.59   
 Monthly R1  5,355.93  14.29   
 Weekly R2  5,372.90  16.97   
 Monthly R2  5,416.67  43.77   

Wednesday 9/21/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the red vertical bar on the far right has been in place long enough to signal weakness.

Look at the indicator line, the blue one. It's still trending down from the July peak.

That trend is a concern for people still bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 527 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Both lines on this chart have suffered over the past week.

I think the prognosis is that we're about to see the indices drop, perhaps substantially. One instigating factor is Wednesday's FED meeting result. If they raise rates, the markets will likely drop. I guess we'll have to wait and see what they decide and the re-evaluate.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/20/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by 0.0% or -3.63 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1238 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 659 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 579 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 123/207 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I show two lines, red ones, that mark the trading range of the index over the last two days.

The lines form a rectangle top with three touches on the bottom trendline and two on the top.

The two trendlines are horizontal as one would expect from a rectangle.

My book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy pictured on the left, says that rectangles break out upward 63% of the time.

However, my gut says this will breakout downward. You can guess your own breakout direction and be just as accurate.

 

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,584.04    
 Weekly S2  17,790.54  206.50   
 Monthly S1  17,852.11  61.56   
 Weekly S1  17,955.36  103.25   
 Daily S2  17,994.20  38.85   
 Daily S1  18,057.19  62.98   
 Low  18,093.05  35.86   
 Close  18,120.17  27.12   
 Open  18,154.82  34.65   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,154.87  0.05   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  18,156.03  1.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  18,157.02  0.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,173.96  16.94   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,193.06  19.10   
 Daily R1  18,219.02  25.96   
 High  18,254.88  35.87   
 Monthly Pivot  18,260.27  5.39   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  18,317.86  57.59   
 Weekly R1  18,321.84  3.97   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  18,523.50  201.67   
 Monthly R1  18,528.34  4.83   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  18,936.50  408.17   

Monday 9/19/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the weekly scale.

I've been watching the index fall for a while now. What's pushing it down? My guess is the fear of rising interest rates. When rates rise, the cost of running the business increases (cost of new debt rises).

Is now the time to buy some shares?

If you like to earn money every three months in the form of a dividend then maybe the answer is yes. But wait...

The index has touched the red support line and bounced off it. I don't view the line as a marker of robust support.

Rather, the green circled area is a loose congestion zone that is also a support area. So, maybe, just maybe, the index has turned. But I'd wait to buy until after the FED meets midweek. If they announce a rate hike, the index could drop. Or it could jump up, once the news of a rate increase is out there. Pick your favorite direction...

$ $ $

I released version 5.4 of Patternz. This version has a downloader built in so you can download quotes with a few clicks of the mouse.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 239.62 points.
Tuesday: Down 258.32 points.
Wednesday: Down 31.98 points.
Thursday: Up 177.71 points.
Friday: Down 88.68 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 38.35 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 118.66 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 11.35 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     17.3% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.8% down from the high of 5,287.61 on 09/07/2016.
     24.6% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     18.2% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.

Options Expiration

VIX expires on Wednesday.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/16/2016, the CPI had:

15 bearish patterns,
9 bullish patterns,
254 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 37.5%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,990  18,057  18,137  18,204  18,284 
Weekly  17,792  17,958  18,158  18,324  18,525 
Monthly  17,585  17,855  18,261  18,531  18,938 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,124  2,131  2,139  2,147  2,154 
Weekly  2,096  2,118  2,141  2,162  2,185 
Monthly  2,076  2,108  2,151  2,182  2,225 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,208  5,226  5,237  5,256  5,267 
Weekly  5,042  5,143  5,199  5,300  5,356 
Monthly  5,020  5,132  5,210  5,322  5,400 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 41.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 10.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 10.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months up 30.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
29Triangle, symmetrical
10Triangle, descending
10Triangle, ascending
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Rectangle top
6Pipe bottom
6Broadening top
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Dead-cat bounce
4Rising wedge

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. E-Commerce2. Semiconductor
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Medical Services4. E-Commerce
5. Biotechnology5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Air Transport51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Retail Store53. Shoe
54. Shoe54. Retail Store
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/16/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 631 stocks searched, or 1.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 2 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACIWPipe top      08/29/201609/06/2016IT Services
BMRNTriangle, symmetrical      08/04/201609/15/2016Biotechnology
CIENPipe top      08/29/201609/06/2016Telecom. Equipment
DDBroadening top      07/26/201609/13/2016Chemical (Basic)
IBKRTriangle, symmetrical      07/19/201609/15/2016Securities Brokerage
MCHXTriangle, descending      08/11/201609/15/2016Advertising
NTAPBroadening top      08/24/201609/12/2016Computers and Peripherals
PESBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      08/09/201609/14/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EWCBroadening top      08/16/201609/13/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
IEVBroadening top      08/11/201609/15/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/08/2016 and 09/15/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $18.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.30 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.58%
Volume: 464,500 shares. 3 month avg: 420,826 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/29/2016 to 09/06/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $95.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $88.09 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.95%
Volume: 1,018,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,918,754 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/04/2016 to 09/15/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $21.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.43 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.27%
Volume: 2,778,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,018,251 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/29/2016 to 09/06/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dupont (DD)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $67.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.93 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.44%
Volume: 3,266,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,856,440 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/26/2016 to 09/13/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $35.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.90 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.37%
Volume: 345,600 shares. 3 month avg: 549,222 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/19/2016 to 09/15/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 611 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $2.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.97 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.02%
Volume: 27,300 shares. 3 month avg: 182,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/11/2016 to 09/15/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 50 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $35.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.96 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.11%
Volume: 2,942,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,191,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/24/2016 to 09/12/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $3.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.92 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 53.00%
Volume: 763,200 shares. 3 month avg: 997,326 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 08/09/2016 to 09/14/2016
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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MSCI Canada Index (EWC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $25.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.76 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.70%
Volume: 2,330,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,106,011 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/16/2016 to 09/13/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 623
9/15/16 close: $39.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.91 or 1.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.34%
Volume: 1,193,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,092,038 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/11/2016 to 09/15/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 9/15/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 18.52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 568 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 359 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 209 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 114/194 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I thought that the red trendline would scrape along the tops of today's price peaks, but it sliced through them instead, as the chart shows.

To me, that suggests indecision about the direction the index will take.

The two green lines form a chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. The breakout is upward 61% of the time from those according to my new book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy.Chart Patterns: After the Buy

I show a picture of that on the left. It's available at your local delicatessen.

So I think Thursday will have an upward bias and coupled with the above probability of 63% closing higher, then that is what I expect.

Just don't be surprised if the market drops tomorrow. That can happen despite the technical evidence.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,034.06    
 Weekly S2  5,034.06  0.00   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Weekly S1  5,103.92  69.85   
 Monthly S1  5,103.92  0.00   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  5,136.43  32.51   
 Daily S1  5,155.10  18.67   
 Low  5,159.55  4.45   
 Open  5,160.21  0.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close  5,173.77  13.56   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,175.51  1.74   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,178.22  2.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,180.44  2.22   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,185.38  4.93   
 Weekly Pivot  5,195.76  10.39   
 Monthly Pivot  5,195.76  0.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  5,196.89  1.13   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  5,201.34  4.45   
 Daily R2  5,220.01  18.67   
 Weekly R1  5,265.62  45.61   
 Monthly R1  5,265.62  0.00   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R2  5,357.46  91.85   
 Weekly R2  5,357.46  0.00   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R2.

Wednesday 9/14/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the most recent signal was a well-times bearish one. It's the red bar on the far right.

The problem with the signal is it might not have appeared on the day shown on the chart. It could have signaled up to a week later and yet appeared right where it is now. It's like driving down the road and passing your exit. "I should have turned there," you say, but fat lot of good it does you now.

Regardless, the red bar signals a downward trend and that's what we've been seeing. How long it will last is anyone's guess, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 528 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Both the red and blue lines show weakness this week, as the above information states.

Of the two charts, I think the top one is more meaningful. Look at the trend of the CPI since July. It's been trending lower even as the index has climbed. That's not a good sign, in my view.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/13/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.3% or 239.62 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 251 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 136 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 115 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 123/206 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

As I look at the chart, I am reminded of a V-bottom chart pattern. It looks suspiciously like the two red lines I've drawn on the chart.

What might happen is that the right side of the V extends, forming an extended V-bottom. I think that's likely.

In an extended V-bottom, the right side moves horizontally to down for a period of time before resuming the upward move.

My concern is that this pattern might be a temporary recovery, a pullback to a resistance area shown by the green line, but perhaps rising as far as 18,500.

If that's correct, then look for the index to drop again once it hits resistance. All of this could be related to the FED raising interest rates, or anything else that rattles the markets.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,776.66    
 Weekly S2  17,854.60  77.93   
 Daily S2  17,862.35  7.75   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  17,994.84  132.49   
 Open  18,028.95  34.11   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly S1  18,050.87  21.92   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  18,089.83  38.97   
 Daily S1  18,093.71  3.88   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,133.83  40.12   
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,176.77  42.94   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,219.70  42.93   
 Daily Pivot  18,226.20  6.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  18,320.69  94.49   
 Close  18,325.07  4.38   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  18,358.69  33.62   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  18,359.65  0.96   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  18,457.56  97.91   
 Weekly R1  18,555.92  98.36   
 Daily R2  18,590.05  34.13   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R1  18,633.86  43.81   
 Weekly R2  18,786.78  152.92   
 Monthly R2  18,942.64  155.87   

Monday 9/12/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Bar graph showing up totals for the Dow industrials

This chart shows that September is the worst performing month of the year for the Dow (S&P 500 index is similar but not the Nasdaq). It has the fewest up-closes. So expect weakness. You can click the link for the full story on the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

Picture of the Dow forecast on the daily scale.

I show the forecast I made at the start of the year (red line). The forecast is based on the historical performance of the Dow.

Notice that it (the red line) didn't predict the large drop to A, although it did show a slight dip.

At C, the prediction was later than the actual decline at B, but it still served as a warning of coming weakness.

Of course, the line missed the sudden drop at D entirely.

I drew the green line from the low on Friday to the left. It shows that the drop is resting on support. That might suggest this drop is just a short-term one, and not the start of a bear market.

What I find odd about this chart, is that the red line doesn't show weakness going into September or November. Just days ago, I put 48% of my IRA into cash and am up to 20% cash in my regular account. So I was lucky to miss the nearly 400-point drop in part of my holdings. In other words, I'll be looking to buy more stocks later this month or next.

The monthly forecast shows the index continuing to be bullish well into 2017.

If Friday's decline is because of fears of rising interest rates, then this drop will not be the start of a long term decline. In the past, such fears have knocked the Dow but it soon recovered. This time, happening in September, it might be different and we DO know that interest rates will rise. It's just a question of when.

I'm going to wait before investing my cash to see how things shake out in the coming days.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 46.16 points.
Wednesday: Down 11.98 points.
Thursday: Down 46.23 points.
Friday: Down 394.46 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 406.51 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 123.99 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 52.17 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.1% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     17.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     3.1% down from the high of 5,287.61 on 09/07/2016.
     21.8% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     3.0% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     17.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Treasury budget2:00 TDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
International trade8:30 WC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales8:30 ThA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Producer price index8:30 ThB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Industrial production9:15 ThB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 ThB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Business inventories10:00 ThC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Consumer price index8:30 FB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/09/2016, the CPI had:

148 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
144 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,873  17,979  18,192  18,298  18,510 
Weekly  17,775  17,930  18,241  18,396  18,707 
Monthly  17,697  17,891  18,280  18,474  18,863 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,100  2,114  2,142  2,155  2,183 
Weekly  2,088  2,108  2,148  2,168  2,208 
Monthly  2,084  2,106  2,150  2,172  2,216 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,059  5,093  5,159  5,193  5,259 
Weekly  5,018  5,072  5,180  5,234  5,342 
Monthly  5,018  5,072  5,180  5,234  5,342 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 10.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
32Triangle, symmetrical
10Triangle, ascending
9Triangle, descending
6Rectangle top
6Dead-cat bounce
5Head-and-shoulders top
5Pipe bottom
5Rising wedge
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Flag

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. Semiconductor2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Semiconductor
4. E-Commerce4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Cement and Aggregates
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Shoe53. Shoe
54. Retail Store54. Retail Store
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/9/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 631 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
BBBYTriangle, ascending      08/10/201609/07/2016Retail (Special Lines)
BRKSTriangle, symmetrical      08/17/201609/08/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
FLEXTriangle, ascending      06/23/201609/07/2016Electronics
HHSTriangle, symmetrical      07/06/201609/08/2016Advertising
LEGTriangle, symmetrical      08/02/201609/06/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
NSHPipe bottom      08/22/201608/29/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
NVDARectangle top      08/12/201609/08/2016Semiconductor
RTNChannel      04/05/201609/08/2016Aerospace/Defense
SCCOTriangle, ascending      06/30/201609/08/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      07/14/201609/08/2016Air Transport
PAYDead-cat bounce      09/02/201609/02/2016Telecom. Equipment
IYKRectangle top      08/05/201609/08/2016Household Products
IYERectangle top      04/27/201609/07/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
IEORectangle top      04/12/201609/07/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
SLVPipe bottom      08/22/201608/29/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
IGEChannel      04/18/201609/08/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
QLDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/15/201609/07/2016Long ETFs
QQQBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/15/201609/07/2016Long ETFs
IXCTriangle, ascending      06/08/201609/07/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/01/2016 and 09/08/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $45.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.70 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.93%
Volume: 2,687,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,453,117 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/10/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Brooks Automation (BRKS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $12.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.21 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.66%
Volume: 172,900 shares. 3 month avg: 259,449 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/17/2016 to 09/08/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $13.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.68 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.59%
Volume: 6,030,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,578,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/23/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 621 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $1.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.37 or 15.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -50.31%
Volume: 100,800 shares. 3 month avg: 545,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2016 to 09/08/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/14/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/12/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $52.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.81 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.85%
Volume: 558,300 shares. 3 month avg: 761,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/02/2016 to 09/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $25.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.03 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.48%
Volume: 53,900 shares. 3 month avg: 107,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/22/2016 to 08/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $62.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.98 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 90.05%
Volume: 7,895,200 shares. 3 month avg: 9,603,834 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/12/2016 to 09/08/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $139.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.17 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.17%
Volume: 1,275,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,727,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/05/2016 to 09/08/2016

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $26.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.96 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.31%
Volume: 963,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/30/2016 to 09/08/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $108.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.43 or 1.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.21%
Volume: 2,524,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,404,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/14/2016 to 09/08/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 612 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $17.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.05 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.69%
Volume: 3,744,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,863,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/02/2016 to 09/02/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $116.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $114.62 or 1.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.99%
Volume: 59,800 shares. 3 month avg: 92,566 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 09/08/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Energy sector (iShares) (IYE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 213 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $39.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.12 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.25%
Volume: 1,274,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,432,988 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/27/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $62.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.03 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.47%
Volume: 129,700 shares. 3 month avg: 159,851 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/12/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $18.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.07 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.17%
Volume: 8,351,100 shares. 3 month avg: 11,897,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/22/2016 to 08/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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iShares SP Natural resources (oil) (IGE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $34.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.70 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.31%
Volume: 210,600 shares. 3 month avg: 433,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/18/2016 to 09/08/2016

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Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $84.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.77 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.50%
Volume: 1,069,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,013,778 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/15/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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PowerShares QQQ -- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $117.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.46 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.80%
Volume: 20,104,400 shares. 3 month avg: 21,461,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 08/15/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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S and P Global Energy Sector Index fund (IXC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 229 out of 623
9/8/16 close: $33.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.09 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.87%
Volume: 71,300 shares. 3 month avg: 183,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 09/07/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 9/8/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 8.02 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 634 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 368 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 266 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 114/193 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I first drew the red trendline. This is a best fit line. By that I mean I drew it by hand so that it touched the bottom of the valleys, making at least three touches of the line.

It shows that the line could pose overhead resistance to an upward move at B.

The green line touches peaks and it's a support line. The index last touched it at A, so I would consider that a good measure of where support is.

The above probabilities suggest that price could rise up to the red line and perhaps slide along it.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,057.22    
 Monthly S1  5,170.57  113.36   
 Weekly S2  5,171.52  0.94   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  5,223.16  51.64   
 Weekly S1  5,227.72  4.57   
 Weekly Pivot  5,245.56  17.83   
 Daily S2  5,251.73  6.17   
 Low  5,261.62  9.89   
 Daily S1  5,267.83  6.21   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,271.55  3.72   
 Open  5,274.23  2.68   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,274.62  0.39   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,277.68  3.07   
 Daily Pivot  5,277.72  0.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,283.93  6.21   
 High  5,287.61  3.68   
 Daily R1  5,293.82  6.21   
 Weekly R1  5,301.76  7.94   
 Daily R2  5,303.71  1.95   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,319.60  15.89   
 Monthly R1  5,336.51  16.92   
 Monthly R2  5,389.10  52.58   

Wednesday 9/7/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart doesn't show the bearish divergence that last week's chart showed.

The bullish green signal prevails.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 25% on 08/23/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 530 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red lines shows continued improvement compared to the prior week.

The blue line remains flat.

Both lines are at or near their peak values. From these two charts, you wouldn't know it was September, the worst performing month of the year.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/6/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.4% or 72.66 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1051 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 551 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 500 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 122/205 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The strength shown by the indices on Friday makes me want to rethink the downward targets I have set. See above "Tom's Targets."

Anyway, the chart shows a red trendline drawn along the peaks. This has shown support recently, on Friday, when the index touched it and bounced upward.

The green line is a resistance area setup by the prior peak. My guess is it's too close to the current price movement to pose much of a hurdle to a determined upward move.

Keep in mind that the index could drop just as easily.

According to research I did on holidays, I expect price to close higher on Tuesday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,048.75    
 Weekly S2  18,194.79  146.04   
 Monthly S1  18,270.35  75.57   
 Weekly S1  18,343.37  73.02   
 Daily S2  18,386.28  42.91   
 Low  18,439.10  52.82   
 Daily S1  18,439.12  0.02   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  18,444.07  4.95   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  18,466.01  21.94   
 Monthly Pivot  18,469.40  3.39   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,479.46  10.07   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,491.93  12.47   
 Daily Pivot  18,491.94  0.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,491.96  0.02   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,504.40  12.44   
 High  18,544.76  40.36   
 Daily R1  18,544.78  0.02   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  18,592.65  47.88   
 Daily R2  18,597.60  4.95   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R1  18,691.00  93.40   
 Weekly R2  18,693.35  2.34   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  18,890.05  196.70   

Friday 9/2/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 633 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMTriangle, symmetrical      07/20/201609/01/2016Diversified Co.
ANFDead-cat bounce      08/30/201608/30/2016Apparel
ACETDead-cat bounce      08/26/201608/26/2016Chemical (Diversified)
AJRDRising wedge      08/12/201609/01/2016Diversified Co.
CBKDead-cat bounce      08/30/201608/30/2016Retail (Special Lines)
GLWTriangle, symmetrical      08/15/201609/01/2016Telecom. Equipment
EETriangle, symmetrical      08/16/201609/01/2016Electric Utility (West)
EMCTriangle, ascending      08/09/201608/29/2016Computers and Peripherals
FFIVHead-and-shoulders top      07/26/201608/30/2016Internet
FISTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201609/01/2016Computer Software and Svcs
FLEXTriangle, ascending      06/23/201609/01/2016Electronics
IBKRTriangle, symmetrical      07/19/201608/26/2016Securities Brokerage
IVCTriangle, symmetrical      07/26/201608/31/2016Medical Supplies
MOSTriangle, ascending      06/08/201608/26/2016Chemical (Diversified)
NBRTriangle, symmetrical      08/16/201608/31/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RMBSTriangle, symmetrical      07/27/201608/31/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTNChannel      04/05/201609/01/2016Aerospace/Defense
SMTCRising wedge      06/20/201608/29/2016Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SETriangle, descending      08/04/201608/26/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TKRRising wedge      06/20/201608/30/2016Metal Fabricating
IYERectangle top      04/27/201609/01/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
IEORectangle top      04/12/201609/01/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
PEJTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/201609/01/2016Long ETFs
IXCTriangle, ascending      06/08/201609/01/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/25/2016 and 09/01/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 293 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $179.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $176.06 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.48%
Volume: 1,095,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,809,117 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/20/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $17.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.06 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.85%
Volume: 3,675,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,933,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/30/2016 to 08/30/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $20.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.78 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.76%
Volume: 296,600 shares. 3 month avg: 225,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/26/2016 to 08/26/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $18.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.91 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.58%
Volume: 131,400 shares. 3 month avg: 297,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/12/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Christopher and Banks Corp (CBK)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 421 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $1.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.72 or 20.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.33%
Volume: 387,200 shares. 3 month avg: 320,137 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/30/2016 to 08/30/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $22.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.07 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.23%
Volume: 5,918,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,702,823 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/15/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 269 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $45.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.59 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.48%
Volume: 132,200 shares. 3 month avg: 195,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/16/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $28.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.42 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.38%
Volume: 36,802,100 shares. 3 month avg: 14,099,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/09/2016 to 08/29/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $123.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $126.85 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.52%
Volume: 538,200 shares. 3 month avg: 802,882 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/26/2016 to 08/30/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 76 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $79.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.74 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.42%
Volume: 1,407,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,796,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 177 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $13.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.71 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.84%
Volume: 2,142,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,569,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/23/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 492 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $35.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.73 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.40%
Volume: 463,900 shares. 3 month avg: 651,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/19/2016 to 08/26/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $11.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.90 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -32.20%
Volume: 380,400 shares. 3 month avg: 395,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/26/2016 to 08/31/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/28/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/27/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 312 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $29.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.06 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.73%
Volume: 6,230,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,822,082 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 08/26/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 46 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $9.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.92 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.33%
Volume: 5,844,400 shares. 3 month avg: 7,278,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/16/2016 to 08/31/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rambus Inc (RMBS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $14.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.28 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.25%
Volume: 2,333,400 shares. 3 month avg: 561,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/27/2016 to 08/31/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $139.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $135.97 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.39%
Volume: 1,272,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,796,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/05/2016 to 09/01/2016

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $27.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.23 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 45.30%
Volume: 981,800 shares. 3 month avg: 424,148 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 08/29/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 173 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $35.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.68 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 48.75%
Volume: 2,605,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,104,645 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/04/2016 to 08/26/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $33.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.91 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.87%
Volume: 559,700 shares. 3 month avg: 640,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/20/2016 to 08/30/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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DJ US Energy sector (iShares) (IYE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $37.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.63 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.90%
Volume: 984,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,476,605 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/27/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $58.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.93 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.52%
Volume: 112,300 shares. 3 month avg: 163,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/12/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Leisure (PEJ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $35.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.34 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.79%
Volume: 42,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,702 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/22/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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S and P Global Energy Sector Index fund (IXC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 625
9/1/16 close: $31.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.89 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.66%
Volume: 109,300 shares. 3 month avg: 174,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2016 to 09/01/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Thursday 9/1/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.2% or -9.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 470 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 243 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 227 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 113/192 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red trendline along price tops, forming a down sloping line. That may setup overhead resistance. I write "may" because support and resistance don't work all that well intraday.

The green line is a support line. If the index drops that far, it could find support.

So, we're looking at a descending triangle type pattern, one that seems to be squeezing the index out the end of the green and red lines.

Since the last touch was on the bottom line, I would expect this to rise up to the red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,972.73    
 Monthly S1  5,092.97  120.25   
 Weekly S2  5,143.06  50.09   
 Weekly S1  5,178.14  35.08   
 Daily S2  5,179.39  1.25   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  5,184.36  4.97   
 Low  5,191.18  6.82   
 Daily S1  5,196.30  5.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,202.15  5.84   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,205.54  3.39   
 Daily Pivot  5,208.10  2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,208.92  0.83   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,213.22  4.30   
 Open  5,216.42  3.20   
 High  5,219.89  3.47   
 Daily R1  5,225.01  5.12   
 Weekly Pivot  5,226.94  1.93   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,236.81  9.87   
 Weekly R1  5,262.02  25.21   
 Monthly R1  5,304.60  42.58   
 Weekly R2  5,310.82  6.22   
 Monthly R2  5,395.99  85.17   

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