Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking the links (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Picture of Bumper.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/21/2017
22,359 -53.36 -0.2%
9,669 14.62 0.2%
731 -0.83 -0.1%
6,423 -33.35 -0.5%
2,501 -7.64 -0.3%
YTD
13.1%
6.9%
10.8%
19.3%
11.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/14/2017
22,450 or 21,500 by 10/01/2017
9,750 or 9,200 by 10/01/2017
775 or 730 by 10/01/2017
6,650 or 6,200 by 10/01/2017
2,600 or 2,425 by 10/01/2017

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

September 2015 Headlines


Archives


Wednesday 9/30/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Look at the chart of the indicator. Do the two red lines mean divergence?

Answer: No. It's convergence. The two trends are in synch, at least for now.

The bearish turn down is obvious, so that is not good for long-sided traders or investors. However, as we have seen before, the indicator has hit bottom and is waiting to rebound. One large move up in the index could flip the indicator to neutral or bullish.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red bars show that the bears are in control.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Tuesday 9/29/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.9% or -312.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 96 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 54 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 42 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 97/165 or 58.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I took today's price action and copied it, then flipped it horizontally so that it curves upward.

This is a possibility, only a possibility, of what will happen Tuesday.

The large swings that we have seen in the markets is getting tiring. The swings make it hard to predict where the index will go in the future, but that was never easy, of course.

Still, if fears of China would subside, then the markets would recover, so that's why I remain bullish.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,500.61    
 Monthly S1  15,251.25  750.64   
 Weekly S2  15,636.71  385.46   
 Daily S2  15,767.59  130.88   
 Weekly S1  15,819.30  51.71   
 Daily S1  15,884.74  65.44   
 Low  15,981.85  97.11   
 Close  16,001.89  20.04   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  16,099.00  97.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,108.45  9.45   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  16,120.97  12.52   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,147.55  26.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,186.66  39.11   
 Weekly Pivot  16,198.95  12.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  16,216.15  17.20   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  16,313.26  97.11   
 High  16,313.26  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  16,381.54  68.28   
 Daily R2  16,430.41  48.87   
 Weekly R2  16,761.19  330.78   
 Monthly R1  16,871.61  110.42   
 Monthly R2  17,741.33  869.72   

Monday 9/28/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew to red lines along the peaks and valleys.

Do you know what chart pattern it forms?

If your answer is a descending broadening wedge. then you are correct.

This chart pattern breaks out upward 79% of the time.

As you can see, the index close below the bottom trendline, signaling a downward breakout.

We'll see if the index drops to the bottom red line (imagine it extended downward).

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 125.61 points.
Tuesday: Down 179.72 points.
Wednesday: Down 50.58 points.
Thursday: Down 78.57 points.
Friday: Up 113.35 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 69.91 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 140.73 points or 2.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.69 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.1% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     6.1% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     10.4% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     9.2% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     9.5% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     3.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 WBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Construction spending10:00 ThDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales5:00 ThC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Factory orders10:00 FD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/25/2015, the CPI had:

27 bearish patterns,
10 bullish patterns,
183 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 27.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,068  16,191  16,328  16,452  16,588 
Weekly  15,741  16,028  16,303  16,590  16,865 
Monthly  14,605  15,460  16,225  17,080  17,846 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,904  1,918  1,935  1,949  1,967 
Weekly  1,869  1,900  1,940  1,971  2,011 
Monthly  1,777  1,854  1,944  2,021  2,111 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,585  4,636  4,710  4,761  4,836 
Weekly  4,521  4,604  4,742  4,825  4,964 
Monthly  3,978  4,332  4,647  5,001  5,315 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.0%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 15.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Pipe bottom
19Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Triple top
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Broadening bottom
4Triangle, descending
4Pipe top
4Triple bottom
3Diamond bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Short ETFs3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Insurance (Life)4. Short ETFs
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Furn/Home Furnishings
50. Semiconductor50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Petroleum (Integrated)
53. Chemical (Basic)53. Semiconductor
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Friday 9/25/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADSTriangle, descending      09/01/201509/24/2015Information Services
ARWRFlag, high and tight      08/24/201509/24/2015Biotechnology
AXSTriangle, descending      08/26/201509/23/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BCPCTriangle, symmetrical      06/22/201509/24/2015Chemical (Specialty)
BLDRPipe top      09/08/201509/14/2015Retail Building Supply
CALDiamond top      07/27/201509/24/2015Shoe
ELTriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201509/24/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      08/25/201509/21/2015Building Materials
MROTriangle, symmetrical      08/12/201509/23/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
PESTriangle, symmetrical      08/12/201509/23/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RESTriangle, symmetrical      08/12/201509/23/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SCCOPipe top      09/08/201509/14/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
SMRTTriangle, descending      08/20/201509/24/2015Apparel
TGTTriangle, ascending      08/28/201509/24/2015Retail Store
TZOODouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/31/201509/18/2015Internet
SSGPipe bottom      09/08/201509/14/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/17/2015 and 09/24/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $254.02
1 Month avg volatility: $5.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $265.80 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.20%
Volume: 582,600 shares. 3 month avg: 477,732 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/01/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Arrowhead Research Corp (ARWR)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $7.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.02 or 16.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.57%
Volume: 22,477,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,570,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $54.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.44 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.61%
Volume: 501,800 shares. 3 month avg: 604,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $60.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.88 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.93%
Volume: 164,700 shares. 3 month avg: 162,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/22/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $14.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.17 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 110.92%
Volume: 1,660,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,298,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $31.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.45 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.09%
Volume: 266,600 shares. 3 month avg: 250,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $78.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.08 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.07%
Volume: 1,696,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,014,485 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $15.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.92 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.35%
Volume: 172,100 shares. 3 month avg: 185,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $15.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.31 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.39%
Volume: 12,052,600 shares. 3 month avg: 13,332,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $2.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.81 or 27.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -55.23%
Volume: 1,055,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,307,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 421 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $10.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.88 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.09%
Volume: 1,022,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,979,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $26.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.89 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.75%
Volume: 1,685,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,952,588 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $10.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.02 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.16%
Volume: 128,500 shares. 3 month avg: 146,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/20/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $79.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.03 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.15%
Volume: 3,934,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,964,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $8.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.43 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.73%
Volume: 68,100 shares. 3 month avg: 125,106 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/31/2015 to 09/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 572
9/24/15 close: $58.28
1 Month avg volatility: $2.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.61 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.87%
Volume: 17,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,683 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/24/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -3.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 539 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 294 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 245 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/156 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A terrific looking symmetrical triangle appears highlighted here in red.

I drew the bottom line longer to connect another point at the start, but if you ignore that, it's a fine specimen.

According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book., pictured on the right, the pattern breaks out upward 54% of the time on the daily charts. That's about random.

If I had to guess as to the breakout direction, it would be upward. based on the upward tilt of the pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,911.97    
 Monthly S1  4,332.36  420.38   
 Weekly S2  4,665.11  332.75   
 Weekly S1  4,708.92  43.82   
 Daily S2  4,710.66  1.74   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  4,712.52  1.86   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  4,731.70  19.18   
 Low  4,735.13  3.43   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,752.51  17.38   
 Close  4,752.74  0.23   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  4,756.17  3.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,757.88  1.71   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,763.26  5.37   
 Open  4,764.69  1.43   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  4,777.21  12.52   
 High  4,780.64  3.43   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  4,801.68  21.04   
 Weekly Pivot  4,834.90  33.22   
 Weekly R1  4,878.71  43.82   
 Weekly R2  5,004.69  125.97   
 Monthly R1  5,132.91  128.22   
 Monthly R2  5,513.07  380.17   

Wednesday 9/23/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows bearish divergence but it's a bit late in my announcing it here. The index has already dropped.

I looked back at August and the indicator predicted a bullish turn because of bullish divergence. That never occurred. So divergence, like other tools, work only some of the time.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Tuesday 9/22/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.8% or 125.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 560 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 308 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 252 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 97/164 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The Dow over the last two days has constructed a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. I show it here with the left shoulder (L), right shoulder (R), and head.

Since the neckline joining the two armpits slopes upward, the correct buy point is the red line at A. A close above that line is a buy signal.

So far, however, we are looking at squiggles on the price chart since the head-and-shoulders has not confirmed as a valid pattern. It will only become valid when price closes above A.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,284.90    
 Monthly S1  15,397.55  1,112.64   
 Weekly S2  15,988.94  591.39   
 Weekly S1  16,249.56  260.63   
 Daily S2  16,306.84  57.27   
 Low  16,391.88  85.04   
 Open  16,406.10  14.22   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  16,408.51  2.41   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,463.21  54.69   
 Monthly Pivot  16,482.97  19.77   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,485.24  2.27   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  16,493.56  8.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,507.27  13.72   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,510.19  2.92   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  16,578.60  68.41   
 Weekly Pivot  16,591.50  12.90   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  16,595.23  3.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  16,680.28  85.04   
 Weekly R1  16,852.12  171.85   
 Weekly R2  17,194.06  341.93   
 Monthly R1  17,595.62  401.56   
 Monthly R2  18,681.04  1,085.43   

Monday 9/21/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

This chart doesn't show what I want to discuss, so I made a smaller picture, shown here in red.

The other major indices have hit bottom and bounced. Many have formed symmetrical triangles with an upward breakout. Now the indices are throwing back to the chart pattern.

What does that mean?

Look at the little red picture. The box represents the symmetrical triangle. After that, the index rises to A. That move has already happened.

The index is on the way to B now. After that, look for the index to resume its rise.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 62.13 points.
Tuesday: Up 228.89 points.
Wednesday: Up 140.1 points.
Thursday: Down 65.21 points.
Friday: Down 290.16 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 48.51 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 4.89 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 3.02 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     6.6% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     7.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.5% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     8.3% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     4.9% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Existing home sales10:00 MCCounts sales of used homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Durable goods orders8:30 ThBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
New home sales10:00 ThC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/18/2015, the CPI had:

85 bearish patterns,
1 bullish patterns,
232 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.2%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,137  16,261  16,468  16,592  16,799 
Weekly  15,947  16,166  16,550  16,768  17,152 
Monthly  14,243  15,314  16,441  17,512  18,639 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,931  1,944  1,967  1,981  2,003 
Weekly  1,903  1,931  1,976  2,003  2,048 
Monthly  1,740  1,849  1,976  2,085  2,213 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,782  4,805  4,842  4,864  4,901 
Weekly  4,690  4,759  4,860  4,928  5,030 
Monthly  3,937  4,382  4,737  5,183  5,538 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.4%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 31.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.9%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
31Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Triple bottom
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Broadening bottom
3Broadening top
3Broadening top, right-angled and descending
2Triple top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Short ETFs4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Short ETFs
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Chemical (Basic)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. Semiconductor53. Semiconductor
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Friday 9/18/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
FDXBroadening bottom      08/27/201509/16/2015Air Transport
FLIRDiamond bottom      08/28/201509/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
HGGFlag, high and tight      07/28/201509/15/2015Retail (Special Lines)
LAWSHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/26/201509/11/2015Metal Fabricating
LTriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201509/17/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ASGNTriple bottom      08/26/201509/11/2015Human Resources
STRTriple bottom      08/26/201509/11/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
RDCHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/04/201509/11/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SEETriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201509/17/2015Packaging and Container
ABCOTriangle, symmetrical      09/01/201509/16/2015Information Services
UGITriple bottom      08/24/201509/11/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
VVUSFlag, high and tight      08/24/201509/11/2015Biotechnology
UNGBroadening bottom      08/24/201509/17/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/10/2015 and 09/17/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $149.49
1 Month avg volatility: $4.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $139.69 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.92%
Volume: 2,879,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,899,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/16/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $28.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.33 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.30%
Volume: 1,327,400 shares. 3 month avg: 799,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/16/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Top

hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $5.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.97 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.89%
Volume: 94,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,557 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/28/2015 to 09/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $23.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.92 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.08%
Volume: 18,600 shares. 3 month avg: 52,092 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $36.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.87 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.68%
Volume: 1,302,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,658,911 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $37.07
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.22 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.69%
Volume: 195,700 shares. 3 month avg: 383,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Questar Corp. (STR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $19.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.19 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.81%
Volume: 1,332,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,436,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $18.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.21 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.53%
Volume: 2,727,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,803,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/04/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $51.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.81 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.79%
Volume: 2,078,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,293,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

The Advisory Board Company (ABCO)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $48.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.55 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.10%
Volume: 153,100 shares. 3 month avg: 411,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/01/2015 to 09/16/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/04/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/03/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/02/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $34.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.67 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.29%
Volume: 499,200 shares. 3 month avg: 815,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Vivus Inc (VVUS)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $1.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.26 or 21.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.10%
Volume: 2,521,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,492,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/11/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/06/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/05/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 572
9/17/15 close: $12.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.97 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.96%
Volume: 4,335,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,856,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/17/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 28.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 462 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 286 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 176 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/155 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The symmetrical triangle outlined here in red broke out upward.

Now the index is following a channel. If it remains within that channel, look for the index to drop a bit, hitting the bottom of that channel and then rise again to the top.

My guess is that the FOMC rate decision will cause the index to break out upward from the channel tomorrow (Thursday), but as I said, it's only a guess. I just think the markets will like what happens at the meeting.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,944.29    
 Monthly S1  4,416.76  472.48   
 Weekly S2  4,716.52  299.76   
 Monthly Pivot  4,764.62  48.10   
 Weekly S1  4,802.88  38.26   
 Daily S2  4,831.65  28.77   
 Weekly Pivot  4,832.88  1.23   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  4,848.15  15.27   
 Open  4,860.43  12.28   
 Daily S1  4,860.45  0.02   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,865.45  5.00   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,870.79  5.34   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,876.14  5.34   
 Daily Pivot  4,876.94  0.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,889.24  12.30   
 High  4,893.44  4.20   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,905.74  12.30   
 Weekly R1  4,919.24  13.50   
 Daily R2  4,922.23  2.99   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  4,949.24  27.01   
 Monthly R1  5,237.09  287.85   
 Monthly R2  5,584.95  347.85   

Wednesday 9/16/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index has formed a symmetrical triangle, outlined here in red.

The indicator suggests an upward breakout since it is trending upward. But let's look at the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The two green bars on the far right signal a bullish trend is in place.

That could change, of course, if the index were to make a large drop. If the FED were to raise interest rates, it might spur such selling.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Tuesday 9/15/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -62.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 877 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 445 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 432 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/163 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is one of the best intraday symmetrical triangles that I've seen. I show the pattern here, outlined in red.

Notice how the pattern bounces from side to side and it continues this over three days.

Unfortunately, the triangle does not give us a clue as to the breakout direction. What I can say with assurance is that the breakout will come soon, perhaps as soon as Tuesday (I'm writing this on Monday evening).

I claim that because the narrowing of the triangle suggests a move soon, just not the direction it will take.

$ $ $

I flushed my water heater this morning. I do that once a year to clear the cottage cheese-looking stuff that gathers in the bottom of the tank. If you haven't flushed yours, consider doing it. It's easy enough to do. For electric heaters, be sure to turn off the power at the circuit breaker. When you're done, getting the air out of the lines is a real gas.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,198.01    
 Monthly S1  15,284.48  1,086.48   
 Weekly S2  15,827.13  542.64   
 Weekly S1  16,099.04  271.92   
 Daily S2  16,264.24  165.20   
 Daily S1  16,317.60  53.36   
 Low  16,330.87  13.27   
 Close  16,370.96  40.09   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,376.71  5.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  16,381.85  5.14   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  16,384.23  2.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,390.87  6.63   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,405.02  14.16   
 Daily R1  16,437.59  32.57   
 High  16,450.86  13.27   
 Open  16,450.86  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  16,456.81  5.95   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  16,504.22  47.41   
 Weekly R1  16,653.76  149.54   
 Weekly R2  16,936.57  282.80   
 Monthly R1  17,543.28  606.72   
 Monthly R2  18,715.61  1,172.32   

Monday 9/14/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 index on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

A symmetrical triangle appears highlighted in red, at A. What direction will the breakout take?

Answer: Based on the chart pattern indicator, the breakout will be downward. That's because the indicator turned bearish on Friday.

If the index were to break out upward from the symmetrical triangle, then it would bump up against overhead resistance shown here as a blue line. That line is just the start of resistance. Resistance continues upward from there.

 

 

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 390.3 points.
Wednesday: Down 239.11 points.
Thursday: Up 76.83 points.
Friday: Up 102.69 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 330.71 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 138.42 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 39.83 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.5% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     6.9% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     7.8% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.4% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     8.1% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     5.0% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

Top

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Retail sales8:30 TA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Industrial production9:15 TB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 TB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Business inventories10:00 TC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Consumer price index8:30 WB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Housing starts8:30 ThB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 ThB-Measures building permits for new construction.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 Th??The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Leading indicators10:00 FD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,181  16,307  16,371  16,497  16,561 
Weekly  15,848  16,140  16,403  16,695  16,957 
Monthly  14,219  15,326  16,478  17,585  18,736 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,932  1,946  1,954  1,968  1,976 
Weekly  1,898  1,929  1,959  1,991  2,020 
Monthly  1,739  1,850  1,978  2,089  2,216 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,743  4,783  4,803  4,842  4,862 
Weekly  4,694  4,758  4,811  4,875  4,927 
Monthly  3,922  4,372  4,742  5,192  5,563 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 47.9%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
15Pipe top
14Pipe bottom
14Triangle, symmetrical
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Head-and-shoulders top
5Broadening bottom
5Head-and-shoulders complex top
4Triple top
3Head-and-shoulders bottom
3Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Internet2. Short ETFs
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Short ETFs5. Internet
50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
51. Chemical (Basic)51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Petroleum (Integrated)
53. Semiconductor53. Semiconductor
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Friday 9/11/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 8 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AAPLTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/201509/10/2015Computers and Peripherals
BSETPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
CPBPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Food Processing
CXTriangle, symmetrical      08/27/201509/10/2015Cement and Aggregates
CNOHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/07/201509/04/2015Insurance (Diversified)
ELNKPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Internet
GSOLTriangle, symmetrical      08/10/201509/04/2015Advertising
HDTriangle, symmetrical      08/28/201509/10/2015Retail Building Supply
JBHTPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IDXXPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Drug
LZBTriangle, symmetrical      08/20/201509/09/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
NFXBroadening wedge, descending      06/24/201509/09/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
RTNPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Aerospace/Defense
^GSPCTriangle, symmetrical      08/25/201509/10/2015None
SETriangle, descending      08/27/201509/10/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TEPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Electric Utility (East)
TGTriangle, symmetrical      08/27/201509/10/2015Chemical (Specialty)
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      08/25/201509/10/2015Building Materials
WERNPipe bottom      08/24/201508/31/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/03/2015 and 09/10/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $112.57
1 Month avg volatility: $4.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $101.88 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.98%
Volume: 62,807,200 shares. 3 month avg: 57,735,412 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $31.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.97 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 61.92%
Volume: 129,500 shares. 3 month avg: 126,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $49.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.48 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.70%
Volume: 1,522,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,334,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $7.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.76 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.85%
Volume: 12,111,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,160,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $17.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.62 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.72%
Volume: 1,281,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,594,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/07/2015 to 09/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $8.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.85 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 101.37%
Volume: 721,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,178,977 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $8.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.59 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.87%
Volume: 8,600 shares. 3 month avg: 120,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 09/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $114.49
1 Month avg volatility: $3.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $106.84 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.07%
Volume: 5,253,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,370,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $75.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.33 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.15%
Volume: 1,006,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,368 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 167 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $75.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.37 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 536,200 shares. 3 month avg: 789,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $26.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.09 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.15%
Volume: 221,500 shares. 3 month avg: 329,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/20/2015 to 09/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $34.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.34 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.10%
Volume: 4,979,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,739,402 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 06/24/2015 to 09/09/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $106.07
1 Month avg volatility: $2.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.90 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.94%
Volume: 1,547,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,877,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
9/10/15 close: $1,952.29
1 Month avg volatility: $39.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1,857.57 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.18%
Volume: 668,618,900 shares. 3 month avg: 678,636,980 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $27.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.08 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.17%
Volume: 6,503,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,143,823 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 10 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $26.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.41 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.87%
Volume: 12,199,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,432,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $13.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.94 or 12.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.57%
Volume: 80,700 shares. 3 month avg: 110,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $37.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.99 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.02%
Volume: 358,900 shares. 3 month avg: 468,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/10/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/03/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/02/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/01/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 572
9/10/15 close: $27.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.54 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.95%
Volume: 1,245,900 shares. 3 month avg: 667,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/10/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.2% or -55.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 108 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 46 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 62 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/155 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Outlined in the figure in red (A) is a measured move down chart pattern. After the pattern completes, as it has here, you likely see a rebound to the corrective phase of the pattern.

That means a bounce back up to 4800 or so, at a minimum.

B shows a support line from Tuesday. Combined with a gap, these patterns suggest the composite will find support and bounce upward on Thursday. That's just a guess, so keep that in mind since anything can happen.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,858.19    
 Monthly S1  4,307.36  449.17   
 Weekly S2  4,522.32  214.96   
 Weekly S1  4,639.42  117.11   
 Daily S2  4,672.56  33.14   
 Daily S1  4,714.55  41.98   
 Weekly Pivot  4,732.02  17.47   
 Monthly Pivot  4,741.31  9.29   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  4,746.73  5.42   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  4,756.53  9.80   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  4,788.71  32.18   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,791.10  2.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,804.81  13.71   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,818.51  13.71   
 Daily R1  4,830.70  12.19   
 Weekly R1  4,849.12  18.43   
 Open  4,856.27  7.15   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  4,862.88  6.61   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  4,904.86  41.98   
 Weekly R2  4,941.72  36.85   
 Monthly R1  5,190.48  248.76   
 Monthly R2  5,624.43  433.95   

Wednesday 9/9/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The two red lines outline a symmetrical triangle but the indicator doesn't show the same indecision as the index.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows an interesting cluster of bullish days (the cluster of green in the last few days).

An upward breakout from the symmetrical triangle will continue the green bars. A downward breakout could turn the bars red.

One thing we can say is that the direction of the breakout from that symmetrical triangle is unknown.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Tuesday 9/8/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.7% or -272.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 104 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 46 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 58 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/163 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/50 or 54.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index appears to be range bound, bouncing from the top to bottom red trendlines.

Notice the peak at A doesn't touch the top trendline. What does that mean, if anything?

My guess is it spell weakness. We could see the index drop below the bottom red line. Or not. Maybe there will be good news to send the index higher over the holiday weekend.

Speaking of holidays, research says that the index typically closes higher after this holiday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,005.51    
 Monthly S1  15,053.94  1,048.44   
 Weekly S2  15,586.05  532.10   
 Daily S2  15,821.77  235.72   
 Weekly S1  15,844.21  22.45   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  15,962.07  117.86   
 Low  16,026.61  64.54   
 Close  16,102.38  75.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,158.46  56.08   
 Daily Pivot  16,166.92  8.46   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,199.18  32.27   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  16,238.12  38.93   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,239.91  1.80   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  16,307.22  67.31   
 High  16,371.76  64.54   
 Open  16,371.76  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  16,418.77  47.01   
 Weekly R1  16,496.28  77.52   
 Daily R2  16,512.07  15.78   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  16,890.19  378.12   
 Monthly R1  17,467.20  577.02   
 Monthly R2  18,832.03  1,364.82   

Friday 9/4/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 1.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFPipe bottom      08/17/201508/24/2015Apparel
EXCBroadening bottom      06/30/201509/01/2015Electric Utility (East)
FRDRoof      07/29/201509/03/2015Building Materials
GSOLTriangle, symmetrical      08/10/201509/03/2015Advertising
HEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      05/26/201509/03/2015Electric Utility (West)
HOVTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/201509/03/2015Homebuilding
JBHTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/24/201509/01/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IIINTriangle, symmetrical      07/16/201509/03/2015Building Materials
MTSNPipe bottom      08/17/201508/24/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MWDiamond bottom      08/11/201509/03/2015Retail (Special Lines)
OIHPipe bottom      08/17/201508/24/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/27/2015 and 09/03/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $20.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.17 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.77%
Volume: 2,140,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,942,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $30.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.16 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.39%
Volume: 6,765,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,536,314 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/30/2015 to 09/01/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $6.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.36 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.41%
Volume: 1,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,617 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 07/29/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

Top

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $8.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.36 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.82%
Volume: 15,800 shares. 3 month avg: 121,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $27.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.88 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.61%
Volume: 259,300 shares. 3 month avg: 382,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Top

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $1.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.38 or 22.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.90%
Volume: 1,890,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,759,171 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/31/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $75.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.67 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.56%
Volume: 1,643,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,336,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/01/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $17.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.55 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.31%
Volume: 32,400 shares. 3 month avg: 56,782 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/16/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Mattson Technology Inc. (MTSN)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $2.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.52 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.88%
Volume: 204,400 shares. 3 month avg: 681,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Mens Warehouse (MW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $54.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.84 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.76%
Volume: 1,003,000 shares. 3 month avg: 800,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Top

Market Vectors Oil Services (OIH)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 572
9/3/15 close: $30.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.71 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.98%
Volume: 7,938,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,270,680 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top


Thursday 9/3/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.5% or 113.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 29 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 17 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.0% on 12 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/154 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

As you may know, the indices have been volatile recently and yet this chart looks tame, as if traders overdosed on Xanax.

The reason for the calm chart is the price scale is compressed because of the tall range (from high to A).

A nice double bottom appears at 12. It's difficult to see, but on the 2-day chart, it's a nice pattern. It provided day traders the opportunity to make some bank, as they say.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,856.01    
 Weekly S2  4,081.66  225.65   
 Monthly S1  4,302.99  221.33   
 Weekly S1  4,415.82  112.83   
 Weekly Pivot  4,626.30  210.48   
 Daily S2  4,629.22  2.92   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  4,659.41  30.19   
 Daily S1  4,689.60  30.19   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,694.01  4.41   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  4,704.42  10.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,704.69  0.27   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,715.38  10.69   
 Daily Pivot  4,719.79  4.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  4,739.13  19.34   
 Close  4,749.98  10.85   
 High  4,749.98  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,780.17  30.19   
 Daily R2  4,810.36  30.19   
 Weekly R1  4,960.46  150.10   
 Weekly R2  5,170.94  210.48   
 Monthly R1  5,186.11  15.17   
 Monthly R2  5,622.25  436.13   

Wednesday 9/2/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

You all know that the markets have been trending down. The indicator shows this, but it is not as pronounced as it is on the next chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red bars are bearish. The indicator has been bearish for about two weeks now with one green bar in between. It turned bearish about three days before the index started to tumble.

Since the indicator is near zero, it will bounce higher or it can stay pegged where it is. If the markets were to bounce higher, the indicator could jump up, too. To remain in the green, the index would have to stay bullish for a week. If it does not, the bullish signal could disappear.

The green bar in the middle of the red bars is a results of the one-day jump in the index.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top


Tuesday 9/1/15. Neighbor Cuts Cord

My neighbor was tilling in his yard and cut my phone and internet connection. No post today.

I'm told that I'll be billed for the repair, even though I wasn't at fault, and will have to collect from my neighbor.

Life is fun...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.