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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/22/2017
23,526 -64.65 -0.3%
9,627 11.94 0.1%
758 -0.24 0.0%
6,867 4.88 0.1%
2,597 -1.95 -0.1%
YTD
19.0%
6.4%
14.9%
27.6%
16.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2017
23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

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October 2016 Headlines


Archives


Monday 10/31/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

What struck me when I first looked at this chart is how price is moving higher.

I show that by two channel lines, shown here in red.

If the channel holds, then the index will continue to bounce between them.

It's been my experience that as soon as you put money on a channel (buy a stock), then it breaks down. Price falls out of the channel instead of turning. Will that happen here?

The short-term trend is downward, heading toward the bottom of the channel. We'll see if it bounces off the bottom line and heads back up or just continues to drop.

$ $ $

The physician's assistant I visited with today said that I shouldn't be coughing up blood. I showed no signs of a bacterial infection of my lungs (it surprised me that back in June the ER doc prescribed an antibiotic. The "internet" said most bronchitis infections will go away in a few weeks without antibiotics). I'll be having a CT scan done to figure out what's going on.

The first 30 years of my life were difficult. It appears that maybe the last 30 will be tough, too.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a sign.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 77.32 points.
Tuesday: Down 53.76 points.
Wednesday: Up 30.06 points.
Thursday: Down 29.65 points.
Friday: Down 8.49 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 15.48 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 67.3 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.7501 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.7% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     17.5% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     2.9% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     23.3% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     17.5% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Personal income & consumption8:30 MC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 MC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 MBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 TDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Productivity & costs8:30 ThD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 ThD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Trade balance8:30 FC+Signals balance of exports & imports.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/28/2016, the CPI had:

17 bearish patterns,
5 bullish patterns,
152 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 22.7%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,009  18,085  18,171  18,247  18,333 
Weekly  17,953  18,057  18,166  18,270  18,379 
Monthly  17,734  17,947  18,174  18,387  18,614 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,107  2,117  2,129  2,138  2,150 
Weekly  2,098  2,112  2,134  2,148  2,169 
Monthly  2,078  2,102  2,139  2,163  2,199 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,147  5,168  5,200  5,222  5,254 
Weekly  5,094  5,142  5,227  5,275  5,360 
Monthly  5,023  5,106  5,223  5,307  5,424 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.9%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.4%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 5.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Triangle, symmetrical
9Triangle, descending
7Head-and-shoulders top
6Pipe top
5Rectangle top
4Broadening top
4Broadening bottom
4Triangle, ascending
3Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
3Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Internet3. Internet
4. E-Commerce4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Insurance (Life)5. E-Commerce
50. Retail Building Supply50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Biotechnology51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Metals and Mining (Div.)52. Furn/Home Furnishings
53. Short ETFs53. Biotechnology
54. Shoe54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Short ETFs
56. Retail (Special Lines)56. Apparel
57. Apparel57. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/28/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Yahoo improved their website by making it worse. Again. They blocked the download of an array of quotes, a feature I used to update my database. The result is I have to wait three to four hours later to update my database. If this continues, then these posts won't be done the night before.

To complete the day, I awoke at midnight with congestion. Walked into my bathroom and spit out a mouthful of blood. This is the same thing that happened this past June. Sigh. Acute bronchitis is what the emergency room doc called it last time. This time, I'll save the nearly $2,000 it cost me for the ER visit and will see my family doc later today (Friday).

Life is getting interesting.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 627 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETFalling wedge      10/03/201610/26/2016Chemical (Diversified)
CVGTriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201610/27/2016Computer Software and Svcs
BOOMTriangle, descending      09/21/201610/27/2016Metal Fabricating
FFGTriangle, descending      08/12/201610/27/2016Insurance (Life)
FOETriangle, ascending      09/07/201610/26/2016Chemical (Specialty)
FCXPipe bottom      10/10/201610/17/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
BGCTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/201610/26/2016Computers and Peripherals
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/201610/27/2016Building Materials
GLFHorn top      10/03/201610/17/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
IDXXHead-and-shoulders top      09/22/201610/25/2016Drug
KBALTriangle, symmetrical      09/19/201610/25/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
NSHRectangle top      04/21/201610/27/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
EWGTriangle, descending      09/16/201610/27/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/20/2016 and 10/27/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $18.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.26 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.28%
Volume: 119,000 shares. 3 month avg: 250,940 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 10/03/2016 to 10/26/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/26/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/25/2016 and a 38% chance by 02/24/2017.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $29.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.22 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.68%
Volume: 316,900 shares. 3 month avg: 474,128 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 81 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $9.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.82 or 9.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.92%
Volume: 74,500 shares. 3 month avg: 47,968 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/21/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $63.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.76 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.36%
Volume: 18,400 shares. 3 month avg: 26,377 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/12/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $13.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.13 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.91%
Volume: 315,600 shares. 3 month avg: 533,608 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/26/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $10.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.64 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.90%
Volume: 23,584,100 shares. 3 month avg: 28,691,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/10/2016 to 10/17/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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General Cable (BGC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $13.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.74 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.76%
Volume: 164,000 shares. 3 month avg: 408,862 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/02/2016 to 10/26/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $16.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.69 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.87%
Volume: 77,600 shares. 3 month avg: 132,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Gulfmark Offshore Inc (GLF)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 619 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $1.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.79 or 32.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -71.09%
Volume: 177,500 shares. 3 month avg: 446,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 10/03/2016 to 10/17/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $104.91
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.30 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 43.87%
Volume: 695,100 shares. 3 month avg: 513,005 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/25/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Kimball International, Inc. (KBAL)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 173 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $12.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.94 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.33%
Volume: 54,600 shares. 3 month avg: 105,552 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/19/2016 to 10/25/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 348 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $25.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.59 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.72%
Volume: 78,200 shares. 3 month avg: 65,558 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/21/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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MSCI Germany Index (EWG)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 619
10/27/16 close: $25.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.35 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.49%
Volume: 2,961,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,219,297 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/16/2016 to 10/27/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 10/27/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -33.13 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 300 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 129 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 171 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/200 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two lines. The red line marks resistance. The green line is a resistance line, too.

Both of those suggests that the index will struggle to move higher on Thursday.

But it also appears that the index is mired in a region of support, based on the horizontal movement from Tuesday to Monday (the middle of the chart). So it's possible the index won't go far either way.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,041.18    
 Monthly S1  5,145.73  104.54   
 Weekly S2  5,168.62  22.89   
 Weekly S1  5,209.44  40.83   
 Daily S2  5,212.26  2.81   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  5,231.26  19.01   
 Weekly Pivot  5,236.86  5.59   
 Low  5,237.05  0.19   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  5,244.30  7.25   
 Close  5,250.27  5.97   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,253.78  3.51   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,256.06  2.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,256.40  0.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,258.95  2.55   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,264.12  5.17   
 Daily R1  5,275.06  10.95   
 Weekly R1  5,277.68  2.62   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 High  5,280.85  3.17   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  5,299.86  19.01   
 Weekly R2  5,305.10  5.24   
 Monthly R1  5,348.85  43.75   
 Monthly R2  5,447.42  98.58   

Wednesday 10/26/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish signal that appeared last week has disappeared in this chart, replaced by an existing red bar on the far right of the chart.

Signals can appear or disappear for up to a week, so the disappearing signal is not unusual.

It leaves the bearish signal in place.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 31%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 524 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The above text tells that the market firmed up a bit over the past week, meaning fewer (30%) stocks are in bear market territory (was 31%). It may be hard to see, but the red lines shows the bumpy ride.

The blue like looks flat but over the last week, it turned a bit bullish. The average stock that I follow is down 16% this week. Last week, the average was off 17%.

I'm still cautious about the market. Some of my stocks are being slammed without reason while others are holding up.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/25/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.4% or 77.32 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1053 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 553 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 500 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/208 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/63 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I didn't think I'd have much to write about until I began to draw my lines.

A potential head-and-shoulders bottom appears as LS-Head-RS (left shoulder, head, right shoulder). It hasn't confirmed yet and it's not exactly pretty, either.

The two shoulders should bottom be near the same price but they don't in this case. To confirm as a valid chart pattern, the index has to close above the red line.

Now look at the other head-and-shoulders bottom at 1, 2, 3. This one may or may not have confirmed, too. It's hard to tell from this chart whether the index has closed above the green line at A.

Both of these two are bullish patterns but so far, they are just squiggles on the chart and not actual valid chart patterns.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,721.02    
 Monthly S1  17,972.03  251.00   
 Weekly S2  17,972.57  0.54   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  18,097.80  125.23   
 Daily S2  18,145.89  48.09   
 Weekly Pivot  18,175.00  29.11   
 Daily S1  18,184.46  9.46   
 Low  18,191.18  6.72   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  18,197.14  5.96   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  18,210.95  13.81   
 Close  18,223.03  12.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,223.21  0.19   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  18,229.75  6.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,233.11  3.36   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,243.01  9.90   
 Daily R1  18,268.32  25.31   
 High  18,275.04  6.72   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  18,300.23  25.19   
 Daily R2  18,313.61  13.38   
 Weekly R2  18,377.43  63.82   
 Monthly R1  18,461.96  84.53   
 Monthly R2  18,700.88  238.93   

Monday 10/24/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

This is an exercise in price mirrors and recognizing how price might move after a peak.

Let's discuss the mirror scheme first.

Notice how peak D mirrors the one on the left, at C. It's not an exact replica, of course.

The comparison continues with valleys A and B. Those two bottom near the same price and are about equidistant around the July peak.

To look at these mirrors another way, price climbed from the low at A to the July peak and then dropped all the way back down to the launch price, bottoming at B.

Trying to imagine what could happen when you're standing at the July peak, is invaluable. If you could guess that the index would drop all the way back to A, it could have saved you a ton of money.

So the next time you are wondering where price might go, look at what happened in the past and project that into the future. The results might surprise you.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of my dog.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 51.98 points.
Tuesday: Up 75.54 points.
Wednesday: Up 40.68 points.
Thursday: Down 40.27 points.
Friday: Down 16.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 7.33 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 43.24 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 8.18 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     17.4% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     24.9% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     2.4% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     18.3% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
New home sales10:00 WC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Durable goods orders8:30 ThBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Gross domestic product8:30 FBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/21/2016, the CPI had:

19 bearish patterns,
18 bullish patterns,
395 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 48.6%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,002  18,074  18,121  18,193  18,240 
Weekly  17,947  18,046  18,149  18,249  18,352 
Monthly  17,695  17,920  18,185  18,410  18,675 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,125  2,133  2,138  2,146  2,151 
Weekly  2,114  2,128  2,138  2,152  2,162 
Monthly  2,080  2,111  2,145  2,176  2,211 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,214  5,236  5,247  5,269  5,281 
Weekly  5,171  5,214  5,239  5,282  5,307 
Monthly  5,044  5,150  5,247  5,354  5,450 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 41.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 5.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 44.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
39Pipe top
26Triangle, symmetrical
10Head-and-shoulders top
8Triangle, descending
7Broadening top
6Rectangle top
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Broadening bottom
4Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Internet3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Petroleum (Producing)4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. E-Commerce5. Insurance (Life)
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Electronics
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Shoe
52. Furn/Home Furnishings52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Biotechnology53. Biotechnology
54. Retail (Special Lines)54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Short ETFs55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Shoe57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/21/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 627 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELRectangle top      08/29/201610/20/2016Insurance (Life)
BZHTriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201610/19/2016Homebuilding
CVGTriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201610/19/2016Computer Software and Svcs
DDSPipe top      10/03/201610/10/2016Retail Store
EBAYHead-and-shoulders top      09/08/201610/19/2016Internet
GNWTriangle, ascending      08/31/201610/20/2016Insurance (Life)
HSONTriangle, symmetrical      09/14/201610/20/2016Human Resources
IIINDead-cat bounce      10/20/201610/20/2016Building Materials
INTCHead-and-shoulders top      09/16/201610/18/2016Semiconductor
IPARPipe top      10/03/201610/10/2016Toiletries/Cosmetics
IBKRPipe top      10/03/201610/10/2016Securities Brokerage
NJRPipe bottom      10/03/201610/10/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWPXRectangle top      08/05/201610/20/2016Building Materials
NSHRectangle top      04/21/201610/20/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
TMKTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201610/20/2016Insurance (Diversified)
TREXHead-and-shoulders top      09/28/201610/18/2016Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/13/2016 and 10/20/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 129 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $17.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.71 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.76%
Volume: 250,700 shares. 3 month avg: 540,906 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/29/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 87 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $11.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.36 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.18%
Volume: 471,500 shares. 3 month avg: 769,798 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/19/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Convergys Corporation (CVG)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $29.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.69 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.69%
Volume: 225,000 shares. 3 month avg: 481,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/19/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dilliards Inc (DDS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $58.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.22 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.03%
Volume: 205,100 shares. 3 month avg: 509,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/03/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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eBay, Inc. (EBAY)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $29.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.16 or 7.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.60%
Volume: 52,585,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,022,928 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 09/08/2016 to 10/19/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $5.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.75 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.34%
Volume: 4,965,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,127,703 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/31/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Hudson Global (HSON)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 607 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $1.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.45 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.86%
Volume: 8,900 shares. 3 month avg: 34,598 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/14/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 528 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $27.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.42 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 32.55%
Volume: 1,046,200 shares. 3 month avg: 181,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/20/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Intel Corporation (INTC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $35.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.78 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.84%
Volume: 25,652,600 shares. 3 month avg: 22,843,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 09/16/2016 to 10/18/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $31.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.26 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.40%
Volume: 29,600 shares. 3 month avg: 107,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/03/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $34.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.94 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.95%
Volume: 547,600 shares. 3 month avg: 473,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/03/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $32.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.22 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.03%
Volume: 488,300 shares. 3 month avg: 435,066 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 10/03/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $12.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.74 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.35%
Volume: 21,300 shares. 3 month avg: 32,451 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $24.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.24 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.11%
Volume: 11,300 shares. 3 month avg: 65,931 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/21/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $63.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.40 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.77%
Volume: 234,200 shares. 3 month avg: 501,732 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/20/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 102 out of 620
10/20/16 close: $56.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.74 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 48.92%
Volume: 230,700 shares. 3 month avg: 248,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 09/28/2016 to 10/18/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Thursday 10/20/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.0% or 2.57 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 615 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 344 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 271 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/199 or 58.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not a lot I can say about the chart.

The index has moved horizontally, as if it's waiting for something to happen. I show that horizontal movement as two red lines. Those lines mark support and resistance going back several days.

The breakout direction from this rectangular movement cannot be predicted, in my opinion. So you can make your own guess.

If you believe in price mirrors then look for the index to rise. That rise will mirror Tuesday's drop. If I had to guess on a breakout direction, upward would be it.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,983.95    
 Weekly S2  5,041.47  57.52   
 Monthly S1  5,115.18  73.71   
 Weekly S1  5,143.94  28.76   
 Daily S2  5,225.25  81.31   
 Monthly Pivot  5,229.03  3.78   
 Low  5,234.25  5.22   
 Daily S1  5,235.83  1.58   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  5,240.33  4.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,241.73  1.40   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  5,242.23  0.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,244.04  1.81   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,244.83  0.79   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,246.35  1.52   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,246.41  0.06   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  5,253.83  7.42   
 Daily R1  5,255.41  1.58   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  5,264.41  9.00   
 Weekly R1  5,344.70  80.29   
 Monthly R1  5,360.26  15.56   
 Weekly R2  5,442.99  82.73   
 Monthly R2  5,474.11  31.12   

Wednesday 10/19/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is an odd post. Why? Look at the chart. It shows a bullish signal, highlighted by the vertical green line on the far right.

That's bullish. It suggests the index should turn upward and trend higher.

Unfortunately, the signal can disappear for up to a week, so the green bar could be a mirage.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 31% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 525 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

Here's what I found surprising. I saw the trend of the red line and that's where my surprise came from. It seems to have taken a plunge during the last week.

That's true because the above stats says it is. The red line is a measure of how many stocks are off 20% from their highs. A week ago it was 26%. This week, it's 31%. So a significant number of stocks I follow tumbled.

Even the blue line isn't doing well. A week ago it was at 15% and now it's at 17%, so the average decline of stocks in my database is getting worse (larger numbers are bad).

Also notice that the red line has peaked (late Aug, early Sept) and is moving lower now. Uh-oh.

What this tells me is that today's gain is probably fake, that we'll see another drop shortly, maybe on Wednesday.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/18/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -51.98 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1009 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 476 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 533 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/208 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/62 or 51.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

A measured move down that I thought would not happen did, in fact, occur. I show that as the blue line with the corrective phase, BC highlighted.

After a MMD completes, the stock, or index in this case, often rises back to the corrective phase. That happened when the index climbed to A.

My book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy (shown at left) describes how this process unfolds. The chart on page 258 of the book shows (use your imagination) that price rises into the corrective phase, which happened in this case (the rise to A), then retraces a bit (the low today,E), almost touching the low of the first leg (the low on Thursday,D). Following that, the index rises to close above the top of the measured move down (above last Monday's peak).

We won't know for sure if that's the path it'll take because the breakout direction is unknown. However, it's rare that MMDs breakout upward (a close above the top of the pattern before a close below the bottom of it). That scenario happens just 33% of the time, according to the book.

Based on the book's profile, look for the index to move lower, approaching the MMDs low (D) before recovering.

I don't really see that happening. Why? Because the BDE pattern looks like a head-and-shoulder's bottom chart pattern. That suggests price will rise.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,675.48    
 Weekly S2  17,708.76  33.28   
 Monthly S1  17,880.94  172.18   
 Weekly S1  17,897.58  16.64   
 Daily S2  18,004.64  107.06   
 Daily S1  18,045.52  40.88   
 Low  18,063.02  17.50   
 Close  18,086.40  23.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,100.94  14.54   
 Daily Pivot  18,103.90  2.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,112.65  8.75   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,124.36  11.71   
 Open  18,135.85  11.49   
 Daily R1  18,144.78  8.93   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  18,148.77  3.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  18,162.28  13.51   
 Monthly Pivot  18,165.41  3.13   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  18,203.16  37.75   
 Weekly R1  18,337.59  134.43   
 Monthly R1  18,370.87  33.28   
 Weekly R2  18,588.78  217.91   
 Monthly R2  18,655.34  66.56   

Monday 10/17/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

A symmetrical triangle appears shown here in red, at B.

The chart pattern has broken out downward. Notice that it has pulled back, to A. After a pullback completes, price usually continues upward 61% of the time, according to my new book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy.

I show an image of the book on the left.

I also drew two horizontal green lines connecting the peaks along the way. Notice that the index touched C and neared the lines at D.

Those two lines could suggest a support zone in the future.

It's possible that the index has already bounced off support for the last time to continue higher, perhaps stopping near the top of the August peak.

Alternatively, it could round over from A and head back down to the green lines, or perhaps lower.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 88.55 points.
Tuesday: Down 200.38 points.
Wednesday: Up 15.54 points.
Thursday: Down 45.26 points.
Friday: Up 39.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 102.11 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 78.24 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 20.76 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     17.4% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     2.4% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     23.9% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     2.8% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     17.8% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Industrial production9:15 MB-Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers.
Capacity utilization9:15 MB-Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation.
Consumer price index8:30 TB+Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services.
Housing starts8:30 WB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Building permits8:30 WB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
VIX expiresWednesday
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/14/2016, the CPI had:

22 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
287 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 12.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,057  18,097  18,179  18,220  18,302 
Weekly  17,726  17,932  18,166  18,372  18,606 
Monthly  17,693  17,916  18,183  18,406  18,673 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,122  2,128  2,138  2,144  2,155 
Weekly  2,084  2,109  2,139  2,163  2,194 
Monthly  2,077  2,105  2,143  2,170  2,208 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,183  5,199  5,229  5,244  5,274 
Weekly  5,031  5,122  5,231  5,323  5,432 
Monthly  4,973  5,094  5,218  5,339  5,463 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months down 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 15.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months down 5.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 17.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
36Pipe top
23Triangle, symmetrical
9Broadening top
9Triangle, descending
8Head-and-shoulders top
6Pipe bottom
5Dead-cat bounce
5Rectangle top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Insurance (Life)
5. Insurance (Life)5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Electronics50. Shoe
51. Shoe51. Toiletries/Cosmetics
52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Biotechnology53. Retail Store
54. Retail (Special Lines)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/14/16. New Patternz Released!

I released a new version of Patternz (5.8) today. This has the chart pattern indicator built in, so you can duplicate my daily signals posted above.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/14/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 628 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AELRectangle top      08/29/201610/13/2016Insurance (Life)
APHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/22/201610/10/2016Electronics
AONDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/22/201610/10/2016Insurance (Diversified)
AAPLScallop, ascending      09/16/201610/11/2016Computers and Peripherals
ATWFlag      09/30/201610/07/2016Petroleum (Producing)
FFGTriangle, descending      08/12/201610/13/2016Insurance (Life)
GDBroadening top      08/15/201610/11/2016Aerospace/Defense
ILMNDead-cat bounce      10/11/201610/11/2016Biotechnology
JNJRectangle bottom      09/09/201610/13/2016Medical Supplies
MURising wedge      09/08/201610/10/2016Semiconductor
^IXICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/22/201610/10/2016None
NWPXRectangle top      08/05/201610/13/2016Building Materials
^GSPCTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201610/10/2016None
SXIPipe top      09/26/201610/03/2016Diversified Co.
SUMTriangle, descending      09/20/201610/13/2016Cement and Aggregates
TGTTriangle, descending      09/22/201610/13/2016Retail Store
UPSTriangle, descending      09/27/201610/12/2016Air Transport
EWPTriangle, descending      08/26/201610/12/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/06/2016 and 10/13/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 73 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $17.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.33 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.38%
Volume: 484,300 shares. 3 month avg: 551,915 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/29/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Amphenol Corp (APH)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $63.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $65.05 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.19%
Volume: 1,504,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,270,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $110.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.50 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.50%
Volume: 846,600 shares. 3 month avg: 802,951 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 250 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $116.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $112.12 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.13%
Volume: 35,192,400 shares. 3 month avg: 36,838,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 09/16/2016 to 10/11/2016
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $9.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.69 or 15.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.14%
Volume: 2,644,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,206,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/30/2016 to 10/07/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $63.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.00 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.60%
Volume: 24,400 shares. 3 month avg: 26,986 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/12/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $151.01
1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $155.46 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.94%
Volume: 951,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,340,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/15/2016 to 10/11/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $137.17
1 Month avg volatility: $4.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $146.16 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.54%
Volume: 2,117,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,248,985 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/11/2016 to 10/11/2016
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $118.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $121.61 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.13%
Volume: 7,387,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,137,151 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 09/09/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $16.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.17 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.00%
Volume: 28,593,700 shares. 3 month avg: 26,458,331 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/08/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
10/13/16 close: $5,213.33
1 Month avg volatility: $45.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5,319.61 or 2.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.11%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $12.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.52 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.40%
Volume: 13,000 shares. 3 month avg: 33,678 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
10/13/16 close: $2,132.55
1 Month avg volatility: $17.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2,079.19 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.34%
Volume: 561,305,800 shares. 3 month avg: 564,216,255 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/10/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $87.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $90.85 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.80%
Volume: 66,600 shares. 3 month avg: 66,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/26/2016 to 10/03/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $18.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.22 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.29%
Volume: 1,042,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,297,620 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/20/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $67.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.10 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.50%
Volume: 3,292,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,359,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/13/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $108.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $110.82 or 2.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.54%
Volume: 2,089,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,258 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/27/2016 to 10/12/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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MSCI Spain Index (EWP)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 620
10/13/16 close: $26.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.64 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.92%
Volume: 595,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,063,411 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/26/2016 to 10/12/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 10/13/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -7.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 553 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 303 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 250 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/198 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the horizontal red line as a resistance line this time.

Now look at the plunge from A to B. Wow.

I would expect the index to bounce back, maybe a Fibonacci retrace of 38%, 50%, or even 62%. If it retraces halfway, it would put the rise near the red line.

Alternatively, the index could be pausing before another slide down. That would mean the index has formed a flag.

I guess we'll have to wait and see which way it goes.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,981.49    
 Monthly S1  5,110.25  128.77   
 Daily S2  5,213.25  102.99   
 Weekly S2  5,214.87  1.62   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  5,226.13  11.27   
 Monthly Pivot  5,226.57  0.43   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  5,226.94  0.38   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  5,228.77  1.83   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  5,239.02  10.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,239.62  0.60   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  5,241.66  2.03   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,242.98  1.32   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,246.33  3.35   
 Open  5,247.91  1.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  5,254.54  6.63   
 High  5,257.18  2.64   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,270.07  12.89   
 Weekly Pivot  5,278.88  8.81   
 Weekly R1  5,290.95  12.08   
 Weekly R2  5,342.89  51.93   
 Monthly R1  5,355.33  12.45   
 Monthly R2  5,471.65  116.31   

Wednesday 10/12/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator has flipped to bearish, as the red vertical bar on the far right shows.

The signal can disappear for up to 7 days, so this might or might not be a valid bearish turn in the market. Any large up day could flip the signal or just push it into the neutral zone.

The next version of Patternz will have the indicator built into the program. Look for it at finer stores nationwide.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 525 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows progress over the prior week but the blue line is flat.

As the above stats tell, the red line describes what percentage of stocks in my database are down at least 20%.

The blue line shows the average of how far down the stocks are. It takes a lot of weakness or strength to push the line.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 10/10/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on a daily scale.

The blue and red lines show two chart patterns. Do you know their name?

These two are the same patterns but they are not well known. They are inverted and ascending scallops.

What I find unique about these patterns is that when they come in threes, they can predict the end of a trend.

They signal a trend end when their height shortens. That is, the second pattern of the three will be smaller than the first and the third will be smaller than the second. But I've also seen the reverse, with the size growing. Either way works.

Unfortunately, it doesn't always signal a lasting reversal.

This chart suggests a coming down turn, but as I said, it's not a guarantee.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 54.3 points.
Tuesday: Down 85.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 112.58 points.
Thursday: Down 12.53 points.
Friday: Down 28.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 67.66 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 19.6 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.53 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.3% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     18.1% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.9% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     25.7% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.8% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     19.0% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Minutes2:00 W?Minutes of the prior Federal Reserve meeting.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
International trade8:30 ThC+Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Treasury budget2:00 ThDTracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Producer price index8:30 FB-Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.
Retail sales8:30 FA-Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
Business inventories10:00 FC-Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,066  18,153  18,237  18,324  18,407 
Weekly  18,022  18,131  18,225  18,335  18,429 
Monthly  17,702  17,971  18,261  18,531  18,821 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,134  2,144  2,155  2,165  2,176 
Weekly  2,133  2,143  2,155  2,165  2,176 
Monthly  2,085  2,119  2,154  2,188  2,222 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,243  5,268  5,292  5,316  5,340 
Weekly  5,233  5,263  5,297  5,327  5,361 
Monthly  4,999  5,146  5,244  5,391  5,489 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 7.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 5.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 6 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
35Pipe top
27Triangle, symmetrical
21Pipe bottom
10Broadening top
7Rectangle top
7Head-and-shoulders top
5Triangle, descending
5Triple bottom
4Dead-cat bounce
4Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Insurance (Life)4. Internet
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. E-Commerce
50. Shoe50. Air Transport
51. Toiletries/Cosmetics51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Retail Store53. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Retail Store
55. Furn/Home Furnishings55. Shoe
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/7/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 55 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 628 stocks searched, or 8.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is likely moving sideways, creating those chart patterns.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 35 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYIHead-and-shoulders top      07/11/201610/03/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
AESPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
AEEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
ATOPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVAPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
BERYPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Packaging and Container
BBYTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/201610/06/2016Retail (Special Lines)
BKHPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
CGIRectangle top      09/09/201610/06/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CNPPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
CFPipe bottom      09/19/201609/26/2016Chemical (Basic)
CSCOTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/201610/06/2016Computers and Peripherals
EDPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
CRHDiamond top      08/17/201610/03/2016Cement and Aggregates
^DJUPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016None
^DJITriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201610/05/2016None
DPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
DTEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
DUKPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
EIXPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
EEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
EFXRectangle top      08/05/201610/06/2016Information Services
ETHPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
THGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/21/201610/04/2016Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
HLPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Metals and Mining (Div.)
DHITriangle, symmetrical      09/19/201610/06/2016Homebuilding
IDAPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
MGEEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
MSFTTriangle, symmetrical      08/26/201610/06/2016Computer Software and Svcs
MWWTriangle, descending      08/16/201610/06/2016Advertising
MLITriangle, descending      09/15/201610/06/2016Metal Fabricating
NTGRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/23/201609/30/2016Telecom. Equipment
NJRPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
NEEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
NIPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
NWPXRectangle top      08/05/201610/06/2016Building Materials
OGEPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
PCGPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
PNWPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
PORPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
PEGPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
^GSPCTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201610/05/2016None
SREPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
SOPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (East)
SWXPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
SNPSTriangle, ascending      09/07/201610/06/2016Computer Software and Svcs
TGTriangle, symmetrical      09/06/201610/03/2016Chemical (Specialty)
UTXTriangle, symmetrical      09/16/201610/06/2016Diversified Co.
WGLPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
WMBTriangle, symmetrical      09/08/201610/06/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
XELPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (West)
IDUPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)
DDMTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201610/06/2016Long ETFs
EWCTriangle, symmetrical      09/07/201610/06/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLUPipe top      09/19/201609/26/2016Electric Utility (Central)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/29/2016 and 10/06/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $243.97
1 Month avg volatility: $6.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $258.32 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.35%
Volume: 916,800 shares. 3 month avg: 309,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/11/2016 to 10/03/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $11.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.41 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.84%
Volume: 8,281,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,825,814 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 469 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $47.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.60 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.09%
Volume: 1,230,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,542,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $70.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.78 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.21%
Volume: 504,700 shares. 3 month avg: 437,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Avista (AVA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $39.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.09 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.76%
Volume: 336,600 shares. 3 month avg: 298,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Berry Plastics Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $43.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.50 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.48%
Volume: 834,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,485,542 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 95 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $38.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.22 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.39%
Volume: 3,664,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,429,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/02/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $57.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.44 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.65%
Volume: 356,300 shares. 3 month avg: 393,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Celadon Group Inc. (CGI)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $8.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.88 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.14%
Volume: 190,600 shares. 3 month avg: 379,829 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/09/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 271 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $22.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.44 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 21.46%
Volume: 3,201,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,474,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $24.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.33 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.57%
Volume: 4,226,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,634,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $31.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.38 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.93%
Volume: 14,076,700 shares. 3 month avg: 22,203,738 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/02/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Con Edison, Inc (ED)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $72.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.30 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.54%
Volume: 2,003,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,835,475 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $33.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.63 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.59%
Volume: 1,424,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,117,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/17/2016 to 10/03/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
10/6/16 close: $642.82
1 Month avg volatility: $9.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $666.37 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.25%
Volume: 15,297,800 shares. 3 month avg: 13,739,314 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
10/6/16 close: $18,268.50
1 Month avg volatility: $169.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17,823.44 or 2.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.84%
Volume: 78,655,600 shares. 3 month avg: 86,693,791 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/05/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 421 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $71.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.64 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.31%
Volume: 2,105,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,723,217 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $92.22
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $95.85 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.00%
Volume: 2,443,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,184,034 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $77.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.42 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.98%
Volume: 5,137,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,049,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 414 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $69.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.45 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.92%
Volume: 1,606,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,586,283 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $43.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.99 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.23%
Volume: 151,100 shares. 3 month avg: 168,491 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Equifax Inc (EFX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $132.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.79 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.71%
Volume: 489,300 shares. 3 month avg: 590,720 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $30.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.25 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.38%
Volume: 193,200 shares. 3 month avg: 177,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hanover Insurance Group, The (THG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $76.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.17 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.88%
Volume: 206,200 shares. 3 month avg: 265,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/21/2016 to 10/04/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $28.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.82 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.00%
Volume: 1,563,600 shares. 3 month avg: 727,978 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $5.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.88 or 13.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 173.54%
Volume: 10,325,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,625,695 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $30.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.52 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.46%
Volume: 2,286,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,844,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/19/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDACORP Inc (IDA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $74.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.27 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.26%
Volume: 141,000 shares. 3 month avg: 203,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $53.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $56.63 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.99%
Volume: 78,500 shares. 3 month avg: 75,680 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $57.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.78 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.07%
Volume: 16,207,300 shares. 3 month avg: 25,619,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/26/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $3.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.72 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.09%
Volume: 608,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,175,906 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/16/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 213 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $32.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.46 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.38%
Volume: 246,100 shares. 3 month avg: 153,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/15/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $55.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.17 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 33.45%
Volume: 328,800 shares. 3 month avg: 322,768 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/23/2016 to 09/30/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $31.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.59 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.64%
Volume: 576,400 shares. 3 month avg: 416,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $118.03
1 Month avg volatility: $2.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.50 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.61%
Volume: 2,744,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,033,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $22.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.93 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.07%
Volume: 2,148,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,001,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Northwest Pipe Co (NWPX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 51 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $12.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.49 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.69%
Volume: 14,500 shares. 3 month avg: 37,283 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 08/05/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 264 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $29.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.67 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.07%
Volume: 1,008,000 shares. 3 month avg: 965,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $59.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.26 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.94%
Volume: 3,085,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,820,185 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $72.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.81 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.17%
Volume: 1,148,700 shares. 3 month avg: 706,229 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 320 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $40.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.35 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.40%
Volume: 337,200 shares. 3 month avg: 582,454 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $40.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.41 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.32%
Volume: 3,190,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,770,338 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
10/6/16 close: $2,160.77
1 Month avg volatility: $19.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2,111.76 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.72%
Volume: 517,703,300 shares. 3 month avg: 567,858,406 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/05/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Sempra Energy (SRE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 400 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $103.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.35 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.66%
Volume: 890,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,208,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $49.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.26 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.64%
Volume: 6,087,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,769,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $65.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.91 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.56%
Volume: 148,100 shares. 3 month avg: 245,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $59.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.83 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.18%
Volume: 614,800 shares. 3 month avg: 827,969 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $18.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.40 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.84%
Volume: 45,800 shares. 3 month avg: 65,197 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/06/2016 to 10/03/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United Technologies Corp (UTX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 365 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $102.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.61 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.26%
Volume: 3,651,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,216,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/16/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $59.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.37 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.30%
Volume: 236,800 shares. 3 month avg: 239,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $30.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.60 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.72%
Volume: 5,901,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,566,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/08/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 453 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $39.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.22 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.33%
Volume: 3,740,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,188,338 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJ US Utilities sector index fund (IDU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $117.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.25 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.29%
Volume: 582,500 shares. 3 month avg: 202,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $71.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.76 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.47%
Volume: 105,300 shares. 3 month avg: 177,708 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Canada Index (EWC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $25.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.64 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.91%
Volume: 1,144,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,846,798 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/07/2016 to 10/06/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 620
10/6/16 close: $47.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.97 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.01%
Volume: 20,195,700 shares. 3 month avg: 15,694,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/19/2016 to 09/26/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 10/6/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 26.36 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 523 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 361 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 162 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 69.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 116/197 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What struck me about this chart is that the index is riding in an upward channel.

I show that as two red lines.

My prediction is that the index could drop to the bottom of the channel as the green lines shows. Just because I think it's likely is no guarantee that the index will drop. It could rise instead and pierce the top of the channel. That would be good news for bulls.

If you look over the channel, you'll see that the index has tended to stay near the top half of the channel, suggesting the breakout will indeed be upward.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,007.15    
 Monthly S1  5,161.59  154.43   
 Weekly S2  5,223.18  61.59   
 Monthly Pivot  5,252.23  29.05   
 Weekly S1  5,269.60  17.37   
 Daily S2  5,290.21  20.61   
 Weekly Pivot  5,297.74  7.53   
 Daily S1  5,303.12  5.38   
 Low  5,304.06  0.94   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  5,305.28  1.22   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,314.28  9.00   
 Close  5,316.02  1.74   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,316.96  0.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,317.44  0.47   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,320.59  3.16   
 Daily R1  5,329.87  9.28   
 High  5,330.81  0.94   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  5,343.71  12.90   
 Weekly R1  5,344.16  0.45   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  5,372.30  28.14   
 Monthly R1  5,406.67  34.37   
 Monthly R2  5,497.31  90.65   

Wednesday 10/5/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator turned bearish a few days ago, showing on this chart as a vertical red bar on the far right.

Look at the green bar to the left of that red bar. Now look at the peak in the blue line. It has been dropping for a few weeks. So there was a warning of weakness to come. Of course, the indicator bounces around too much for this to be really useful.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 25% on 09/07/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 525 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 14% on 08/23/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line trended higher over the last week, showing fewer stocks down as far.

The blue line has inched upward by a percentage point. It's very close to the August high.

I think that before these lines move up and start trending again, the indices will need to break out of their horizontal movement from July.

Remember that October is a weak month, so expect a drop. I'm holding off jumping back in until near the end of the month or even November. Maybe I can find some bargains then.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/4/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.3% or -54.3 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1008 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 476 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 532 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/208 or 59.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/61 or 50.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The head-and-shoulders bottom is clear on the chart (LS = left shoulder, RS = right shoulder). There's just one problem.

It's not a head-and-shoulders bottom. Why?

Because the index hasn't closed above the right armpit, shown here as a red line. I use the right armpit instead of the neckline because a neckline would slope upward, getting you in later than the horizontal red line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,692.84    
 Weekly S2  17,907.75  214.91   
 Monthly S1  17,973.34  65.59   
 Weekly S1  18,080.80  107.46   
 Daily S2  18,169.88  89.08   
 Low  18,203.75  33.87   
 Daily S1  18,211.87  8.12   
 Weekly Pivot  18,225.21  13.34   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,232.72  7.51   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,241.68  8.95   
 Daily Pivot  18,245.73  4.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,250.63  4.89   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  18,253.85  3.22   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  18,272.72  18.87   
 Open  18,279.60  6.88   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  18,279.60  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  18,287.72  8.12   
 Daily R2  18,321.58  33.87   
 Weekly R1  18,398.26  76.68   
 Weekly R2  18,542.67  144.41   
 Monthly R1  18,553.22  10.55   
 Monthly R2  18,852.60  299.38   

Monday 10/3/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

 

My feeling is that the index will follow the red line to form peak B, mirroring the one at A.

 

If that happens, the pattern formed will look like a head-and-shoulders top. It'll be an unconfirmed one, meaning it might not turn into an actual head-and-shoulders top at all.

 

For it to confirm as a valid pattern, the index would have to drop below the September low.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 166.62 points.
Tuesday: Up 133.47 points.
Wednesday: Up 110.94 points.
Thursday: Down 195.79 points.
Friday: Up 164.7 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 46.7 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 6.25 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 3.58 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.9% down from the high of 18,668.44 on 08/15/2016.
     18.5% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 5,342.88 on 09/22/2016.
     26.2% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 2,193.81 on 08/15/2016.
     19.8% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Construction spending10:00 MDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 MC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Trade balance8:30 WC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
Factory orders10:00 WD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.
Wholesale inventories10:00 FD-Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Consumer credit3:00 FD-Measures auto, credit card and other debt.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/30/2016, the CPI had:

5 bearish patterns,
19 bullish patterns,
226 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 79.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,099  18,203  18,287  18,391  18,474 
Weekly  17,926  18,117  18,243  18,434  18,561 
Monthly  17,711  18,010  18,291  18,589  18,871 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,148  2,158  2,167  2,177  2,185 
Weekly  2,128  2,148  2,162  2,182  2,195 
Monthly  2,090  2,129  2,158  2,198  2,227 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,257  5,285  5,305  5,333  5,353 
Weekly  5,222  5,267  5,296  5,341  5,371 
Monthly  5,006  5,159  5,251  5,404  5,496 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 21.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 10.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 21.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 10.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 25.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 30.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Triangle, symmetrical
19Pipe bottom
8Broadening top
7Rectangle top
5Triple bottom
5Triangle, ascending
5Dead-cat bounce
4Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Broadening top, right-angled and descending
3Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. E-Commerce
4. Internet4. Medical Supplies
5. E-Commerce5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
50. Air Transport50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Air Transport
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Trucking/Transp. Leasing53. Shoe
54. Retail Store54. Retail Store
55. Shoe55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
56. Apparel56. Apparel
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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