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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 03/24/2017
20,597 -59.86 -0.3%
8,929 -7.37 -0.1%
706 3.20 0.5%
5,829 11.05 0.2%
2,344 -1.98 -0.1%
YTD
4.2%
-1.3%
7.0%
8.3%
4.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 03/14/2017
21,250 or 20,600 by 04/15/2017
9,500 or 8,700 by 04/15/2017
675 or 715 by 04/01/2017
5,950 or 5,650 by 04/15/2017
2,425 or 2,325 by 04/15/2017
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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October 2015 Headlines


Archives


Friday 10/30/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ANFTriangle, symmetrical      09/11/201510/29/2015Apparel
AGUDiamond top      10/08/201510/29/2015Chemical (Specialty)
AKAMDead-cat bounce      10/28/201510/28/2015E-Commerce
AABroadening bottom      09/02/201510/27/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
ASHBroadening top      10/08/201510/29/2015Chemical (Basic)
AIZBroadening top      10/08/201510/29/2015Insurance (Diversified)
BBWDead-cat bounce      10/29/201510/29/2015Retail (Special Lines)
CMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/09/201510/23/2015Machinery
ETHTriangle, symmetrical      09/30/201510/26/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
FLIRTriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201510/26/2015Aerospace/Defense
GSOLTriangle, ascending      09/24/201510/26/2015Advertising
HRSBroadening top      10/13/201510/23/2015Telecom. Equipment
HSCTriangle, symmetrical      09/16/201510/29/2015Diversified Co.
TILEDead-cat bounce      10/29/201510/29/2015Furn/Home Furnishings
NFGPipe top      10/12/201510/19/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
NCSTriangle, symmetrical      09/16/201510/29/2015Building Materials
SAIADead-cat bounce      10/27/201510/29/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SKXDead-cat bounce      10/23/201510/23/2015Shoe
XRTTriangle, symmetrical      08/18/201510/29/2015Retail Store

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/22/2015 and 10/29/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 286 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $20.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.96 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.03%
Volume: 1,219,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,825,871 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/11/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Agrium, Inc (AGU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $94.75
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.60 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.03%
Volume: 1,370,700 shares. 3 month avg: 816,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/08/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $61.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.37 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.94%
Volume: 6,393,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,276,652 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/28/2015 to 10/28/2015

Top

Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $8.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.01 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -43.32%
Volume: 29,429,500 shares. 3 month avg: 30,944,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 09/02/2015 to 10/27/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $108.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.47 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.16%
Volume: 511,100 shares. 3 month avg: 733,952 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/08/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $82.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.57 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.47%
Volume: 369,700 shares. 3 month avg: 662,869 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/08/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $14.25
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.97 or 16.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.10%
Volume: 1,552,900 shares. 3 month avg: 225,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/29/2015 to 10/29/2015

Top

Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $103.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $110.10 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.28%
Volume: 3,037,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,092,683 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/23/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $27.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.30 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.72%
Volume: 219,200 shares. 3 month avg: 219,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/30/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $26.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.70 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.07%
Volume: 2,954,400 shares. 3 month avg: 997,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $9.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.53 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.81%
Volume: 24,300 shares. 3 month avg: 43,942 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 09/24/2015 to 10/26/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 201 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $79.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.71 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.51%
Volume: 1,024,800 shares. 3 month avg: 934,318 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/13/2015 to 10/23/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 526 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $10.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.46 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -43.94%
Volume: 688,400 shares. 3 month avg: 979,934 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/16/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $19.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.28 or 16.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.40%
Volume: 4,517,000 shares. 3 month avg: 581,726 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/29/2015 to 10/29/2015

Top

National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $52.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.11 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.13%
Volume: 250,400 shares. 3 month avg: 492,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/12/2015 to 10/19/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 512 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $10.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.92 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -41.52%
Volume: 174,900 shares. 3 month avg: 312,814 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/16/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $22.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.28 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.63%
Volume: 696,100 shares. 3 month avg: 247,737 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/27/2015 to 10/29/2015

Top

Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $31.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.08 or 14.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 71.75%
Volume: 3,168,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,452,191 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/23/2015 to 10/23/2015

Top

SPDR Retail ETF (XRT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 569
10/29/15 close: $45.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.73 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.93%
Volume: 2,612,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,005,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/18/2015 to 10/29/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 10/29/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.3% or 65.54 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 135 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 88 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 47 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/160 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/67 or 47.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I take a look at these charts, I have a guess as to what will happen tomorrow. The guess is just that, a guess, and I am frequently wrong.

This time, I'm scratching my head over the chart.

Support and resistance appear at the two horizontal red lines. At A, the index dipped to find support and then zoomed higher in a nice straight-line run up. I would expect a retrace of the run tomorrow, dropping the index back to 5050 (the top red line of support). But who knows?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,315.61    
 Monthly S1  4,705.65  390.04   
 Weekly S2  4,781.48  75.83   
 Monthly Pivot  4,877.10  95.62   
 Weekly S1  4,938.58  61.48   
 Weekly Pivot  4,993.57  54.98   
 Daily S2  4,994.24  0.67   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  5,019.60  25.36   
 Open  5,040.38  20.78   
 Daily S1  5,044.96  4.58   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,048.67  3.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,057.65  8.98   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,066.62  8.98   
 Daily Pivot  5,070.33  3.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,095.69  25.36   
 High  5,095.69  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  5,121.05  25.36   
 Daily R2  5,146.42  25.36   
 Weekly R1  5,150.67  4.26   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  5,205.66  54.98   
 Monthly R1  5,267.14  61.48   
 Monthly R2  5,438.59  171.45   

Wednesday 10/28/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bearish Divergence

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI shows bearish divergence with the index. It confirms my belief that the indices are about to tumble.

Of course, I've been writing about that for more than a week now and yet the indices have continued to climb.

If you look at the Dow utility and transports, you'll see how they have turned down.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

Notice that the red bars (bearish) appeared today. It could be gone tomorrow, due to the way the index is constructed.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 10/27/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.1% or -23.65 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1256 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 652 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 604 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/169 or 58.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index has made what appears to be a descending triangle.

Descending triangles break out downward 64% of the time, according to one study I did. But recent research may have changed the numbers. They are on my other computer (the one that has been crashing during hibernate) so I do not want to disturb it.

It will be interesting to see if the recent uptrend that I have been predicting will end, actually ends anytime soon.

$ $ $

In the 6 years before I was forced to join Obamacare, my monthly premiums for health insurance dropped by an average of 1% over that time.

When I joined Obamacare, my first year (2015) premium increased by 51%. It cost me $200 to sign up a new doc and get a referral to my eye doc that I've been seeing for a decade. When I visited my eye doc, he said they no longer took my new insurance. My new doc said he was also leaving the system.

In 2016, my premium is going up another 25%. Wow.

Under my old plan, I had a PPO, where I could visit any doctor without having to get permission. With the new plan, it is an HMO, where I need to get a referral first. My doctor left the plan. My eye doctor left the plan. Now I'm paying more and getting less.

This isn't a benefit. It's shit.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

Top

© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,344.60    
 Monthly S1  16,483.82  1,139.23   
 Weekly S2  16,927.02  443.20   
 Monthly Pivot  17,081.60  154.57   
 Weekly S1  17,275.04  193.44   
 Weekly Pivot  17,477.20  202.17   
 Daily S2  17,570.56  93.36   
 Daily S1  17,596.81  26.24   
 Low  17,602.51  5.70   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  17,623.05  20.54   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,624.74  1.69   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  17,628.75  4.02   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,631.61  2.85   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,638.47  6.87   
 Open  17,649.57  11.10   
 Daily R1  17,655.00  5.43   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  17,660.70  5.70   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  17,686.94  26.24   
 Weekly R1  17,825.22  138.27   
 Weekly R2  18,027.38  202.17   
 Monthly R1  18,220.82  193.44   
 Monthly R2  18,818.60  597.77   

Monday 10/26/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I have often turned to the Dow utilities to help determine what the other indices are up to. Sometimes the utility index leads the others and sometimes not.

Here is one of those times that its direction melds with my beliefs. We could both be wrong.

Look at the picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At A, the index dropped 1.8% even as the industrials climbed 0.9%.

One of them must be wrong, or not? Both could be right if the industrials continue to show strength and utility companies face stricter EPA regulations.

However, I think the index bears watching. It took a tumble on Friday (as I write this). My guess is the start of a longer term down swing in the markets. It may take some time for the other indices to wake up and tumble. When I make such predictions, I'm 3 days early. Go figure.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 14.57 points.
Tuesday: Down 13.43 points.
Wednesday: Down 48.5 points.
Thursday: Up 320.55 points.
Friday: Up 157.54 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 430.73 points or 2.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 145.17 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 42.04 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.8% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     14.8% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     3.8% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     17.2% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     2.8% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     11.1% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
New home sales10:00 MC+Shows sales of single-family homes.
Durable goods orders8:30 TBMeasures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FOMC Rate decision2:00 W?The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Gross domestic product8:30 ThBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Personal income & consumption8:30 FC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Personal consumption expenditures8:30 FC+Covers durables, non-durables, and services.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 FBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Michigan sentiment10:00 FB-Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/23/2015, the CPI had:

13 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
195 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 62.9%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,463  17,555  17,617  17,709  17,771 
Weekly  16,935  17,291  17,485  17,841  18,035 
Monthly  15,352  16,500  17,089  18,237  18,826 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,049  2,062  2,071  2,084  2,093 
Weekly  1,995  2,035  2,057  2,098  2,120 
Monthly  1,801  1,938  2,009  2,146  2,217 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,978  5,005  5,027  5,054  5,076 
Weekly  4,760  4,896  4,972  5,108  5,184 
Monthly  4,294  4,663  4,856  5,225  5,417 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks up 16.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 16.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 18.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
66Pipe bottom
23Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
16Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
12Triangle, symmetrical
10Broadening bottom
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
8Pipe top
8Triple bottom
6Pennant
5Double Top, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Internet
2. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Insurance (Diversified)3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Homebuilding4. Insurance (Life)
5. Electric Utility (Central)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 10/23/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 31 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 5.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
BMRNTriangle, symmetrical      09/29/201510/22/2015Biotechnology
COPFlag      10/09/201510/21/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
GLWTriangle, symmetrical      08/24/201510/22/2015Telecom. Equipment
CCRNDead-cat bounce      10/22/201510/22/2015Human Resources
EXCTriangle, symmetrical      09/17/201510/22/2015Electric Utility (East)
FOEFlag      10/09/201510/22/2015Chemical (Specialty)
FCXFlag      10/09/201510/22/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
GGGPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Machinery
HONHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/01/201510/16/2015Aerospace/Defense
DHIHorn bottom      09/28/201510/12/2015Homebuilding
JCOMPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Internet
JCPRoof, inverted      09/08/201510/22/2015Retail Store
MROPennant      10/09/201510/22/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
MTRXPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MWWFlag      10/13/201510/22/2015Advertising
NCSPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Building Materials
NTAPPennant      10/14/201510/20/2015Computers and Peripherals
PTENPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RMBSDead-cat bounce      10/20/201510/20/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGSTriangle, ascending      08/27/201510/22/2015Toiletries/Cosmetics
SWCPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
TXTPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Diversified Co.
UTXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/01/201510/19/2015Diversified Co.
VMCDiamond top      07/13/201510/21/2015Cement and Aggregates
IYMFlag      10/08/201510/21/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
IEOPennant      10/09/201510/22/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
IHEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/05/201510/19/2015Drug
IGEPennant      10/09/201510/22/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
EWZPipe top      10/05/201510/12/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLEPennant      10/08/201510/22/2015Petroleum (Integrated)
XLBPennant      10/09/201510/21/2015Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/15/2015 and 10/22/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $101.60
1 Month avg volatility: $6.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.66 or 15.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.39%
Volume: 1,542,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,508,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/29/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $54.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.07 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.97%
Volume: 7,371,100 shares. 3 month avg: 11,159,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $17.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.98 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.24%
Volume: 41,476,900 shares. 3 month avg: 11,724,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 40 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $12.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.50 or 24.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.96%
Volume: 1,751,700 shares. 3 month avg: 354,095 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/22/2015 to 10/22/2015

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $31.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.16 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.37%
Volume: 5,454,100 shares. 3 month avg: 9,226,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/17/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $12.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.82 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.93%
Volume: 391,100 shares. 3 month avg: 771,763 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $12.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.04 or 16.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.54%
Volume: 36,129,300 shares. 3 month avg: 43,240,458 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Graco Incorporated (GGG)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $71.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.11 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.64%
Volume: 1,175,100 shares. 3 month avg: 371,691 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $102.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.29 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.66%
Volume: 4,416,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,777,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 09/01/2015 to 10/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $30.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.26 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.38%
Volume: 7,102,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,227,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 09/28/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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J2 Global Communications Inc. (JCOM)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $74.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.84. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.29 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.24%
Volume: 293,100 shares. 3 month avg: 292,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 35 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $9.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.64 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 54.01%
Volume: 10,799,400 shares. 3 month avg: 11,969,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $18.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.18 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -34.68%
Volume: 9,018,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,709,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 145 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $22.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.83 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.84%
Volume: 161,700 shares. 3 month avg: 266,809 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $7.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.77 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 61.69%
Volume: 761,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,484,797 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/13/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (NCS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $10.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.49 or 10.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.68%
Volume: 224,400 shares. 3 month avg: 308,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $34.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.92 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.06%
Volume: 2,748,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,717,105 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/14/2015 to 10/20/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $14.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.01 or 15.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.27%
Volume: 8,599,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,948,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Rambus Inc (RMBS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $10.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.40 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.05%
Volume: 2,354,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,448,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/20/2015 to 10/20/2015

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Regis Corp (RGS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $13.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.79 or 10.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.66%
Volume: 284,900 shares. 3 month avg: 410,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $10.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.44 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.53%
Volume: 2,623,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,165,155 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $39.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.58 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.98%
Volume: 3,603,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,367,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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United Technologies Corp (UTX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $99.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $94.37 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.23%
Volume: 5,717,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,832,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 09/01/2015 to 10/19/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $93.31
1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.15 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 41.96%
Volume: 1,859,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,375,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/13/2015 to 10/21/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $72.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.96 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.04%
Volume: 62,300 shares. 3 month avg: 132,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/08/2015 to 10/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $62.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.77 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.13%
Volume: 68,300 shares. 3 month avg: 203,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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DJ US Pharmaceuticals index fund (IHE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $145.06
1 Month avg volatility: $5.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $156.55 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.19%
Volume: 294,900 shares. 3 month avg: 76,232 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/19/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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iShares SP Natural resources (oil) (IGE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 427 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $32.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.56 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.24%
Volume: 427,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,108 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $23.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.11 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.27%
Volume: 13,106,400 shares. 3 month avg: 20,408,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/05/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $68.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.48 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.57%
Volume: 18,733,700 shares. 3 month avg: 20,834,745 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/08/2015 to 10/22/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 344 out of 569
10/22/15 close: $44.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.30 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.09%
Volume: 7,259,000 shares. 3 month avg: 8,361,914 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 10/09/2015 to 10/21/2015
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Thursday 10/22/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -40.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 235 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 116 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 119 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/160 or 60.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I show two arcs on the chart, tracing the move in the index over the last 10 days.

Arc A bottoms and then what happens? The index rises and makes a nice recovery before forming arc B. B hasn't completed yet, I think. In fact, the chart pattern indicator has signaled a bearish turn at today's close. That suggests the index is going lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,288.87    
 Monthly S1  4,564.50  275.62   
 Weekly S2  4,717.57  153.07   
 Monthly Pivot  4,762.68  45.12   
 Weekly S1  4,778.84  16.16   
 Daily S2  4,792.09  13.24   
 Daily S1  4,816.10  24.02   
 Weekly Pivot  4,832.90  16.79   
 Low  4,836.46  3.56   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  4,840.12  3.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  4,860.48  20.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,862.58  2.11   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,870.65  8.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,878.73  8.07   
 Daily R1  4,884.49  5.77   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  4,894.17  9.68   
 Open  4,903.98  9.81   
 High  4,904.85  0.87   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  4,928.87  24.02   
 Weekly R2  4,948.23  19.36   
 Monthly R1  5,038.31  90.08   
 Monthly R2  5,236.49  198.19   

Wednesday 10/21/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows bearish divergence with the indicator and the index. That means the indicator suggests the index will drop. The index is being stubborn about dropping.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The green bars say everything looks terrific: bullish.

That could change in a heart beat should the index make a big drop.

$ $ $

I replace me desktop computer's memory and felt confident that I had fixed my hibernate crash problem. Sigh. It crashed again, so it's not a memory problem. I scanned the hard drive (twice) for flaws but found none. Then I optimized the drive. Now it crashes quicker. Jeepers.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 10/20/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 14.57 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1273 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 653 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 620 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/168 or 58.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

An ascending triangle appears within the red lines. This has closed above the top of the triangle, signaling an upward breakout.

Don't get excited.

The chart pattern indicator on today's chart (not shown at the link) shows the bearish divergence getting worse. I'm convinced that the indices are ripe to fall.

$ $ $

This weekend I worked on building a bird house that is a replica of my own house. It's coming along well. I've almost completed the first floor and part of the second. I'll paste pictures on Facebook when I'm done, probably in several weeks since I work on this during the weekend. If the weather gets too cold, I may suspect the project until the spring.

$ $ $

My desktop computer crashed again going into hibernate mode. I swapped memory sticks with my backup computer to see if that fixes the problem and I started shopping for a replacement computer.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,519.99    
 Monthly S1  16,375.27  855.27   
 Weekly S2  16,780.39  405.13   
 Monthly Pivot  16,797.64  17.25   
 Weekly S1  17,005.47  207.82   
 Daily S2  17,091.80  86.33   
 Weekly Pivot  17,112.74  20.94   
 Low  17,129.19  16.45   
 Daily S1  17,161.17  31.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,169.97  8.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,182.57  12.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,195.17  12.60   
 Daily Pivot  17,198.56  3.39   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,209.43  10.87   
 Close  17,230.54  21.11   
 High  17,235.95  5.41   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,267.93  31.98   
 Daily R2  17,305.32  37.39   
 Weekly R1  17,337.82  32.50   
 Weekly R2  17,445.09  107.28   
 Monthly R1  17,652.92  207.82   
 Monthly R2  18,075.29  422.38   

Monday 10/19/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P index on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Line D is overhead resistance. I expect the index is going to be frightened out of its wits trying to pierce this storm.

Below that is a double bottom (AB). It has confirmed as a valid chart pattern because the index closed above the horizontal line cleverly labeled C.

Confirmation is a bullish signal, suggesting that the upward move still has legs.

One cautionary note to sound is that the chart pattern indicator is showing bearish divergence. That could change after a strong up move in the index, so we will have to see how this all plays out.

All of the indices have dropped below the 12-month moving average (see below). That's interesting. If it plays out this time like it has in the past, we're headed for a bear market. When I traded on the information, it was a false signal, so don't hold your breath with this one.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 47.37 points.
Tuesday: Down 49.97 points.
Wednesday: Down 157.14 points.
Thursday: Up 217 points.
Friday: Up 74.22 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 131.48 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 56.22 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.22 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.2% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     12.0% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     6.6% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     13.9% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     4.8% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     8.9% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Building permits8:30 TB-Measures building permits for new construction.
Housing starts8:30 TB-Number of homes beginning construction.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Existing home sales10:00 ThCCounts sales of used homes.
Leading indicators10:00 ThD-Summary of already known reports.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/16/2015, the CPI had:

10 bearish patterns,
39 bullish patterns,
398 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 79.6%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  17,068  17,142  17,181  17,255  17,294 
Weekly  16,776  16,996  17,108  17,328  17,440 
Monthly  15,515  16,366  16,793  17,643  18,070 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,016  2,025  2,029  2,038  2,042 
Weekly  1,976  2,005  2,019  2,048  2,062 
Monthly  1,818  1,926  1,980  2,087  2,141 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,839  4,863  4,875  4,899  4,911 
Weekly  4,733  4,810  4,848  4,925  4,964 
Monthly  4,304  4,596  4,778  5,069  5,252 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 20.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 21.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 52.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 24.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
63Pipe bottom
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
16Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
15Triangle, symmetrical
11Broadening bottom
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Triple bottom
8Pipe top
7Triple top
6Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Computer Software and Svcs2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Insurance (Life)4. Shoe
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Cement and Aggregates
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Semiconductor
51. Machinery51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
52. Biotechnology52. Chemical (Basic)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Biotechnology
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 10/16/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEPRising wedge      08/28/201510/13/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CAGTriangle, symmetrical      09/17/201510/13/2015Food Processing
ELNKTriangle, descending      08/17/201510/15/2015Internet
FRDTriangle, ascending      08/26/201510/15/2015Building Materials
RHIBroadening bottom      08/27/201510/12/2015Human Resources
STJPipe bottom      09/28/201510/05/2015Medical Supplies
UAMBroadening bottom      08/10/201510/13/2015Insurance (Life)
WGLBroadening top      06/23/201510/13/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
ECHBroadening bottom      08/31/201510/12/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EEMBroadening bottom      08/27/201510/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWJBroadening bottom      09/03/201510/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EZABroadening bottom      08/25/201510/09/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/08/2015 and 10/15/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $58.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.72 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.29%
Volume: 2,754,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,938,663 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 08/28/2015 to 10/13/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $41.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.79 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.92%
Volume: 2,697,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,425,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/17/2015 to 10/13/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $8.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.82 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 84.97%
Volume: 1,367,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,025,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 10/15/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $6.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.82 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.69%
Volume: 2,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,011 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 10/15/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $52.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.62 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.23%
Volume: 499,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,039,306 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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St. Jude Medical Inc (STJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 195 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $67.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.97 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.31%
Volume: 1,555,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,042,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/28/2015 to 10/05/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Universal American Financial Corp (UAM)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 528 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $7.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.10 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.35%
Volume: 297,700 shares. 3 month avg: 262,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 10/13/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/10/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/09/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/08/2016.
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 72 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $60.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.75 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.53%
Volume: 198,200 shares. 3 month avg: 290,034 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/23/2015 to 10/13/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $35.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.92 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.85%
Volume: 207,200 shares. 3 month avg: 310,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/31/2015 to 10/12/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund (EEM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $36.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.69 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.81%
Volume: 60,406,300 shares. 3 month avg: 69,303,026 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 10/09/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI Japan Index fund (EWJ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $12.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.79 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.10%
Volume: 34,218,000 shares. 3 month avg: 49,941,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 09/03/2015 to 10/09/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 569
10/15/15 close: $60.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.48 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.05%
Volume: 399,600 shares. 3 month avg: 617,608 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/25/2015 to 10/09/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Thursday 10/15/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -13.76 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 472 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 249 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 95/159 or 59.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two horizontal red lines show a trading range from which the index has yet to break out of. Since the index is near the bottom of the range, I would expect a downward breakout. However, it could just as easily bounce upward again, to the top of the range. We won't know which will happen until it does.

The circled area is a support zone. It is just below the trading range I mentioned above. Thus, if the index were to drop, it might not drop far before finding support.

$ $ $

The Windows XP computer I use to do research on and handle my investment activities is in the process of dying. When I tell it to hibernate, it'll start and then reboot about once every 20 or so times. I checked the hard drive and it's fine. This looks like a memory issue to me. I can swap ram chips with my backup machine to see if it still has a problem. If so, then it's the ram stick. If not, it's probably the motherboard.

I plan to check this weekend to find if a Window 7 computer is still available and buy the pro version of the operating system. I've heard that can support some of the XP applications while running some type of XP emulator.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,269.78    
 Monthly S1  4,526.32  256.53   
 Weekly S2  4,649.08  122.77   
 Weekly S1  4,715.97  66.88   
 Daily S2  4,743.05  27.08   
 Monthly Pivot  4,743.59  0.54   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  4,762.95  19.36   
 Low  4,771.62  8.67   
 Weekly Pivot  4,778.67  7.05   
 Close  4,782.85  4.18   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,790.14  7.29   
 Daily Pivot  4,791.52  1.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,795.85  4.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  4,801.35  5.50   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,801.57  0.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  4,811.42  9.85   
 High  4,820.09  8.67   
 Daily R2  4,839.99  19.90   
 Weekly R1  4,845.56  5.57   
 Weekly R2  4,908.26  62.71   
 Monthly R1  5,000.13  91.86   
 Monthly R2  5,217.40  217.28   

Wednesday 10/14/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the indicator has dropped into neutral (confirmed by the white bar in the next figure).

After the index has climbed so far in a near straight-line advance, I think we're in for a few days of retrace.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

You can see the white bar on the "hard right edge" of the chart.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 10/13/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.3% or 47.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1042 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 576 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 466 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 99/167 or 59.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two thin red lines to outline the behavior of the Dow in the chart. This outlines a rising wedge chart pattern.

That has two up-sloping and converging trendlines. The breakout from this pattern in this case is downward. That makes sense since the trend has been upward for about two weeks now. I think the index needs to rest, and the wedge signals the start of that decline.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,559.86    
 Weekly S2  16,306.17  746.31   
 Monthly S1  16,345.86  39.69   
 Weekly S1  16,719.01  373.15   
 Monthly Pivot  16,728.37  9.36   
 Weekly Pivot  16,914.95  186.58   
 Daily S2  17,037.25  122.31   
 Low  17,064.58  27.33   
 Open  17,082.29  17.71   
 Daily S1  17,084.56  2.27   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,093.09  8.53   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,101.89  8.81   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,110.70  8.81   
 Daily Pivot  17,111.88  1.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,131.86  19.98   
 High  17,139.21  7.35   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,159.19  19.98   
 Daily R2  17,186.51  27.33   
 Weekly R1  17,327.79  141.28   
 Monthly R1  17,514.37  186.58   
 Weekly R2  17,523.73  9.36   
 Monthly R2  17,896.88  373.15   

Monday 10/12/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

One of the things I noticed is that the pattern shown here resembles a head-and-shoulders top.

I show that as the ABC pattern.

It won't confirm as a valid head-and-shoulders top until the index drops below the right armpit.

However, this could be a warning that the upward move of the last two weeks is coming to an end.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 304.06 points.
Tuesday: Up 13.76 points.
Wednesday: Up 122.1 points.
Thursday: Up 138.46 points.
Friday: Up 33.74 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 612.12 points or 3.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 122.69 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 63.53 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.9% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     11.2% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     7.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.5% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     5.6% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     7.9% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

This was unavailable at press time.

Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

OptionDate
A.M. settled index options cease trading.Thursday
Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST.Friday
Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expireFriday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 10/09/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
18 bullish patterns,
295 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 94.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,991  17,038  17,074  17,121  17,158 
Weekly  16,290  16,687  16,899  17,296  17,508 
Monthly  15,544  16,314  16,713  17,483  17,881 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,002  2,008  2,014  2,021  2,027 
Weekly  1,931  1,973  1,996  2,039  2,062 
Monthly  1,820  1,918  1,969  2,067  2,118 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,789  4,810  4,825  4,846  4,862 
Weekly  4,665  4,748  4,795  4,877  4,924 
Monthly  4,286  4,558  4,759  5,032  5,233 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 29.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 29.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 52.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 31.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 4 days.

I found 57 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
58Pipe bottom
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
22Triangle, symmetrical
16Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
12Triple bottom
12Pipe top
11Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Triple top
7Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Shoe
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Short ETFs
4. Shoe4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Computer Software and Svcs
50. Semiconductor50. Machinery
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Chemical (Basic)
52. Chemical (Basic)52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Biotechnology53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 10/9/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 57 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 41 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEOTriangle, symmetrical      09/03/201510/08/2015Apparel
APAPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Petroleum (Producing)
ARRSPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
CIENPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
CMCOPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Machinery
GLWPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
DOVDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/24/201510/02/2015Machinery
DOWPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Chemical (Basic)
BOOMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metal Fabricating
EMCPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Computers and Peripherals
EMRPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Computers and Peripherals
EOGPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
FOEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/24/201510/02/2015Chemical (Specialty)
FLSPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Machinery
FCXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
FRDTriangle, ascending      08/26/201510/08/2015Building Materials
GNWPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Insurance (Life)
HONPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Aerospace/Defense
ITWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/24/201510/02/2015Metal Fabricating
IIINPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Building Materials
KMTPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metal Fabricating
KLACPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MUPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor
NBRPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NUSDead-cat bounce      10/07/201510/07/2015Household Products
PTENTriple bottom      08/26/201510/02/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
POLPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Chemical (Specialty)
PXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Chemical (Diversified)
QLGCPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor
QCOMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
COLPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Aerospace/Defense
RDCBroadening bottom      08/31/201510/05/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RESDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/24/201510/02/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMGPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Chemical (Basic)
SCCOPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
LUVTriangle, symmetrical      08/18/201510/08/2015Air Transport
SXIPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Diversified Co.
TERPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TSCOPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Retail Building Supply
RIGPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Building Materials
UTXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Diversified Co.
PAYPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Computer Software and Svcs
XLNXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
IYMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
IEZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/24/201510/02/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DXDPipe top      09/21/201509/28/2015Short ETFs
DDMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Long ETFs
FXIPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
SOXXPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor
OIHDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/24/201510/02/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMHPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Semiconductor
EWOPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWZPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EEMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWQPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWIPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWMPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EZAPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWPPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWDPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWTPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
IEVPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
ILFPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
SSOPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Long ETFs
SDSPipe top      09/21/201509/28/2015Short ETFs
MXIPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLIPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)
XLBPipe bottom      09/21/201509/28/2015Building Materials
SMNPipe top      09/21/201509/28/2015Short ETFs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/01/2015 and 10/08/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $16.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.44 or 10.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.63%
Volume: 7,478,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,510,291 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/03/2015 to 10/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $47.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.93 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.76%
Volume: 5,336,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,691,231 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $27.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.16 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.85%
Volume: 1,018,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,544,397 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $22.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.83 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.95%
Volume: 1,863,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,081,586 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $19.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.09 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.71%
Volume: 51,400 shares. 3 month avg: 86,943 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $17.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.96 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.63%
Volume: 8,113,200 shares. 3 month avg: 10,960,908 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Dover Corp (DOV)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $63.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.64 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.99%
Volume: 1,728,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,747,677 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $47.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.89 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 9,524,400 shares. 3 month avg: 14,135,274 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $11.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.31 or 15.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.09%
Volume: 222,700 shares. 3 month avg: 127,523 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 119 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $27.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.12 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.61%
Volume: 77,841,800 shares. 3 month avg: 17,639,480 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $47.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.17 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.02%
Volume: 3,323,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,858,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

EOG Resources (EOG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $87.04
1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.87 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.46%
Volume: 6,793,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,604,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $12.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.76 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.31%
Volume: 812,500 shares. 3 month avg: 772,426 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 419 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $48.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.01 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.74%
Volume: 2,421,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,495,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $13.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.32 or 15.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.38%
Volume: 52,284,200 shares. 3 month avg: 41,541,137 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $6.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.84 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.12%
Volume: 1,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,497 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 10/08/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $5.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.94 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.65%
Volume: 6,899,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,764,488 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/06/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/05/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $101.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.51 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.15%
Volume: 3,084,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,498,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $87.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.80 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.41%
Volume: 1,238,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,795,862 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $17.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.51 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.85%
Volume: 64,900 shares. 3 month avg: 57,848 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Kennametal (KMT)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $29.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.58 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.30%
Volume: 1,034,700 shares. 3 month avg: 814,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $53.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.70 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.22%
Volume: 1,423,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,701,612 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $18.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.00 or 9.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -46.53%
Volume: 33,606,200 shares. 3 month avg: 34,559,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $12.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.03 or 17.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.93%
Volume: 8,604,700 shares. 3 month avg: 8,987,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $40.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.76 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.78%
Volume: 6,764,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,389,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $12.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.88 or 16.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.73%
Volume: 10,471,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,082,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $35.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.02 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.81%
Volume: 2,230,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,224,943 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 10/07/2015 to 10/07/2015

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $16.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.60 or 19.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.29%
Volume: 6,537,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,666,469 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $33.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.61 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.84%
Volume: 560,100 shares. 3 month avg: 667,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Praxair Inc. (PX)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 365 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $108.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $103.17 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.19%
Volume: 1,340,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,890,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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QLogic Corp (QLGC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $11.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.24 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.34%
Volume: 927,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,306,151 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/31/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/30/2015 and a 38% chance by 01/29/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $57.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.23 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.43%
Volume: 8,628,000 shares. 3 month avg: 13,329,511 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $86.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.32 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.52%
Volume: 407,100 shares. 3 month avg: 881,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $20.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.04 or 15.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.77%
Volume: 2,946,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,003,548 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/31/2015 to 10/05/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $11.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.70 or 18.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.21%
Volume: 2,787,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,133,886 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. (SMG)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $64.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.60 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.03%
Volume: 243,200 shares. 3 month avg: 256,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $28.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.88 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.59%
Volume: 2,155,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,993,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 332 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $38.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.33 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.41%
Volume: 7,033,700 shares. 3 month avg: 7,993,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/18/2015 to 10/08/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $82.90
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.01 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.30%
Volume: 51,800 shares. 3 month avg: 65,382 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Teradyne Inc. (TER)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $19.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.78 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.54%
Volume: 1,783,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,185,383 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 110 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $89.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $83.43 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.17%
Volume: 981,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,172,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $16.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.52 or 17.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.07%
Volume: 18,299,700 shares. 3 month avg: 15,436,694 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $40.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.09 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.30%
Volume: 296,200 shares. 3 month avg: 594,114 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/03/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/02/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/01/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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United Technologies Corp (UTX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $94.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $89.56 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.97%
Volume: 4,048,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,818,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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VeriFone Systems, Inc (PAY)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $30.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.68 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.79%
Volume: 1,490,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,338,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $45.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.98 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.27%
Volume: 2,836,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,261,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ US Basic Materials sector index fnd (IYM)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $72.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.21 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.68%
Volume: 121,700 shares. 3 month avg: 135,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ US Oil Equip and services (IEZ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $42.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.04 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.51%
Volume: 290,100 shares. 3 month avg: 327,969 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJIA short 2x ProShares (DXD)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $21.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.41 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.74%
Volume: 3,032,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,980,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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DJIA, long 2x Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $61.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.09 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.59%
Volume: 995,400 shares. 3 month avg: 627,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index fund (FXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $38.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.90 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.68%
Volume: 22,435,600 shares. 3 month avg: 30,588,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $85.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.97 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.73%
Volume: 613,500 shares. 3 month avg: 694,908 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Market Vectors Oil Services (OIH)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 324 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $32.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.53 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.89%
Volume: 10,061,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,110,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 10/02/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Market Vectors Semiconductor (SMH)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $52.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.85 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.20%
Volume: 2,996,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,473,509 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $15.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.46 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.34%
Volume: 13,900 shares. 3 month avg: 33,645 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 510 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $24.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.70 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.75%
Volume: 22,966,100 shares. 3 month avg: 19,213,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund (EEM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $35.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.12 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.86%
Volume: 64,161,800 shares. 3 month avg: 69,633,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI France Index (EWQ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $25.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.63 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.10%
Volume: 510,800 shares. 3 month avg: 908,631 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 177 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $15.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.47 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.40%
Volume: 1,619,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,477,446 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $11.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.44 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.66%
Volume: 2,251,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,153,466 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $60.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.23 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.22%
Volume: 342,200 shares. 3 month avg: 634,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Spain Index (EWP)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 318 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $32.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.06 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.53%
Volume: 995,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,698 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Sweden Index (EWD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $30.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.62 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.78%
Volume: 94,500 shares. 3 month avg: 307,846 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $14.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.55 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.82%
Volume: 11,759,800 shares. 3 month avg: 10,812,194 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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S and P Europe 350 Index fund (IEV)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $42.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.68 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.47%
Volume: 324,400 shares. 3 month avg: 812,489 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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S and P Latin America 40 Index fund (ILF)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 478 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $24.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.22 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.85%
Volume: 522,400 shares. 3 month avg: 766,488 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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S and P long 2x Ultra SP 500 ProShares (SSO)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 288 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $61.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.34 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.51%
Volume: 5,692,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,232,740 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $21.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.96 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.40%
Volume: 19,590,100 shares. 3 month avg: 14,617,985 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SandP Global Materials Sector Index fund (MXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $49.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.24 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.89%
Volume: 49,100 shares. 3 month avg: 48,594 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SPDR Industrial Select Sector (XLI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $53.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.59 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.97%
Volume: 21,744,800 shares. 3 month avg: 12,639,095 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $44.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.83 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.08%
Volume: 13,994,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,050,791 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 570
10/8/15 close: $34.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.56 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.17%
Volume: 39,500 shares. 3 month avg: 41,105 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/21/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 10/8/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.9% or 42.79 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 264 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 175 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 89 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 94/158 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart highlights in red an ascending triangle. You cannot see it on this chart, but the triangle breaks out upward.

That suggests there is more "up" move ahead. Whether that appears is a big question since the last 6 trading days have seen the index move up nicely. It might be time for a rest.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,272.55    
 Weekly S2  4,441.28  168.73   
 Monthly S1  4,531.85  90.57   
 Weekly S1  4,616.21  84.36   
 Weekly Pivot  4,662.00  45.78   
 Daily S2  4,707.90  45.90   
 Low  4,728.71  20.81   
 Monthly Pivot  4,746.36  17.65   
 Daily S1  4,749.52  3.16   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,752.56  3.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,759.93  7.37   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,767.30  7.37   
 Daily Pivot  4,770.34  3.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  4,775.05  4.71   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,791.15  16.10   
 High  4,791.15  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,811.96  20.81   
 Daily R2  4,832.78  20.81   
 Weekly R1  4,836.93  4.16   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  4,882.72  45.78   
 Monthly R1  5,005.66  122.94   
 Monthly R2  5,220.17  214.51   

Wednesday 10/7/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator appears to have topped out and is now coming down. That suggests weakness is coming.

If you look back in February, the indicator turned down even as the index climbed. Divergence. That could happen now.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The indicator has not dropped far enough to move into neutral (white bands) or bearish (red bands) territory.

With the index hitting overhead resistance setup by prior peaks in August and September, it suggests a turn down is coming. Maybe not, though. It's possible the index will push through resistance and just continue rising.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Tuesday 10/6/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 1.8% or 304.06 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 103 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 64 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 39 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 98/166 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

Notice the head-and-shoulders top (left shoulder: L, head: H, and right shoulder: R).

Busted means price failed to drop by more than 10% below the breakout (the horizontal blue line). Of course a 10% drop in the indices is too big for it to apply. But the small decline below the horizontal blue line at A is clear.

Notice how the index soared after that. Wow. Nice. Since it's been rising strongly for 2 days, I would expect a drop on Tuesday, a partial retrace of those two days.

$ $ $

Picture of a worm.

I spent about 15 minutes looking at a shrub of mine that has little black pellets on the sidewalk beneath it. Those black pellets, some as large as a BB, but most far smaller, are the droppings from caterpillars.

I found four of them in the bush. I expected them to be green, but they were the color of dead leaves, about 1" long.

The BB sized pellets come from the larger caterpillars, about 3" long. I show a picture of one I found years ago.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,559.68    
 Weekly S2  15,866.79  307.11   
 Monthly S1  16,168.06  301.27   
 Weekly S1  16,321.61  153.55   
 Daily S2  16,396.03  74.42   
 Weekly Pivot  16,397.19  1.16   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  16,502.10  104.91   
 Open  16,502.10  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  16,550.74  48.64   
 Daily S1  16,586.23  35.49   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,615.28  29.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,650.23  34.96   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,685.20  34.96   
 Daily Pivot  16,692.30  7.11   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  16,776.43  84.13   
 High  16,798.37  21.94   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  16,852.01  53.64   
 Daily R1  16,882.50  30.49   
 Weekly R2  16,927.59  45.09   
 Daily R2  16,988.57  60.98   
 Monthly R1  17,159.12  170.55   
 Monthly R2  17,541.80  382.69   

Monday 10/5/15. Market Monday: A Bear Market Ahead?

This is a special post, different from my usual Monday post because I wanted to take a longer view of what the markets could bring in the coming months.

Picture of the Dow.

The top part of the picture is the current Dow.

The bottom is the Dow industrials from 2007 to 2009. That was a bear market.

Both images are on the weekly scale.

Let us take each bend in order.

The two images have a rounding turn in red that I show as a sort of umbrella covering the turn at the market top.

At A, both periods show a downward price spike.

Circled in red is a congestion area, upward spike, followed by another move down. Both indices show that.

If today's markets follow the 2007-2009 model, then look for the index to climb to B. The up move should be starting shortly, especially going into November and December.

Following that, look for the index to slide into a bear market, following C, eventually dropping to D.

I'm not saying that we'll see such a large point decline as last time, but we could follow the model lower, following many of its bumps and potholes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 10/2/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 4.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMZNPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Internet
CALMPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Food Processing
CPBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/17/201509/25/2015Food Processing
CLNETriangle, symmetrical      08/12/201510/01/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
FBPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015E-Commerce
FDPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/17/201509/25/2015Food Processing
GISTriple top      09/03/201509/25/2015Food Processing
GESScallop, ascending and inverted      08/24/201509/28/2015Apparel
HOLXPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Medical Supplies
HSONTriangle, symmetrical      09/14/201510/01/2015Human Resources
IPGPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Advertising
IVCPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Medical Supplies
KDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/17/201509/25/2015Food Processing
LBScallop, ascending and inverted      08/24/201509/29/2015Apparel
LANCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/17/201509/25/2015Food Processing
LMTBroadening bottom      09/18/201510/01/2015Aerospace/Defense
MYGNPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Biotechnology
PTENTriangle, descending      08/26/201510/01/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/24/201509/29/2015Apparel
SKXPipe top      09/14/201509/21/2015Shoe
SODATriple top      09/11/201509/25/2015Food Processing
TUESDead-cat bounce      09/29/201509/29/2015Retail Store
XLNXDiamond bottom      07/10/201510/01/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
USOTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/201509/30/2015Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/24/2015 and 10/01/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $520.72
1 Month avg volatility: $13.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $547.98 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 67.78%
Volume: 3,766,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,114,412 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $56.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.27 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 44.68%
Volume: 1,338,900 shares. 3 month avg: 766,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $50.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $52.86 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.68%
Volume: 1,952,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,533,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/17/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 369 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $4.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.58 or 22.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.51%
Volume: 1,530,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,642,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 10/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Facebook (FB)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 39 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $90.95
1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $95.44 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.57%
Volume: 29,270,700 shares. 3 month avg: 33,590,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $39.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.27 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.35%
Volume: 171,800 shares. 3 month avg: 160,795 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/17/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $55.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.18 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.99%
Volume: 3,493,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,785,612 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 09/03/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $20.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.66 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.52%
Volume: 943,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,369,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/28/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Hologic Inc (HOLX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $39.03
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.36 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 45.96%
Volume: 1,956,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,389,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hudson Global (HSON)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 269 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $2.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.10 or 15.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.19%
Volume: 4,000 shares. 3 month avg: 33,623 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/14/2015 to 10/01/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $19.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.02 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.61%
Volume: 4,556,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,948,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 455 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $14.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.95 or 9.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.19%
Volume: 192,100 shares. 3 month avg: 137,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $66.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.83 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.22%
Volume: 2,916,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,756,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/17/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $91.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.75 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.50%
Volume: 1,915,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,048,131 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/29/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 111 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $96.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $101.16 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.18%
Volume: 81,300 shares. 3 month avg: 92,485 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/17/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $204.75
1 Month avg volatility: $3.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $196.12 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.32%
Volume: 1,889,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,364,994 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 09/18/2015 to 10/01/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $37.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.32 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.07%
Volume: 1,134,200 shares. 3 month avg: 825,198 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $13.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.74 or 20.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.28%
Volume: 5,819,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,348,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 10/01/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 310 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $116.56
1 Month avg volatility: $3.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $108.83 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.05%
Volume: 1,562,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,023,940 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/29/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 2 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $132.70
1 Month avg volatility: $4.98. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $144.96 or 9.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 140.18%
Volume: 1,089,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,326,878 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/14/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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SodaStream International Ltd (SODA)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $13.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.42 or 10.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.82%
Volume: 326,200 shares. 3 month avg: 381,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 09/11/2015 to 09/25/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $5.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.60 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -75.39%
Volume: 535,900 shares. 3 month avg: 916,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 09/29/2015 to 09/29/2015

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Xilinx Inc (XLNX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $41.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.02 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.30%
Volume: 2,073,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,314,845 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/10/2015 to 10/01/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 570
10/1/15 close: $14.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.36 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.39%
Volume: 32,336,400 shares. 3 month avg: 28,843,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2015 to 09/30/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 10/1/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.3% or 102.84 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 26 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 8 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 69.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/157 or 59.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I was wondering what this chart said to me, and then I started to draw the two red lines.

Bingo.

The lines highlight a down-sloping channel. It suggests that when the index reaches the top red line, it'll bounce downward.

$ $ $

On my 21 mile bike ride this morning, I passed a woman riding an adult tricycle. I passed her a second time on the return trip and looked at her luggage rack perched just behind her seat. She was toting two dogs. Yorkies, I think. But they could have been two really furry babies.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,955.66    
 Monthly S1  4,287.91  332.25   
 Weekly S2  4,498.39  210.48   
 Daily S2  4,538.85  40.47   
 Low  4,559.18  20.33   
 Weekly S1  4,559.27  0.09   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  4,574.38  15.11   
 Daily S1  4,579.51  5.13   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,582.47  2.97   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,589.67  7.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,596.87  7.20   
 Daily Pivot  4,599.83  2.97   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,620.16  20.33   
 High  4,620.16  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  4,624.39  4.23   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  4,640.49  16.10   
 Daily R2  4,660.81  20.33   
 Weekly Pivot  4,720.37  59.55   
 Weekly R1  4,781.25  60.89   
 Weekly R2  4,942.35  161.09   
 Monthly R1  4,956.64  14.29   
 Monthly R2  5,293.12  336.48   

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