Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/13/2019
  Indus: 27,784 +92.10 +0.3%  
  Trans: 10,843 -116.63 -1.1%  
  Utils: 844 +12.11 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 8,482 -3.99 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,094 +2.20 +0.1%  
YTD
 +19.1%  
 +18.2%  
 +18.4%  
 +27.8%  
 +23.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019
As of 11/13/2019
  Indus: 27,784 +92.10 +0.3%  
  Trans: 10,843 -116.63 -1.1%  
  Utils: 844 +12.11 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 8,482 -3.99 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,094 +2.20 +0.1%  
YTD
 +19.1%  
 +18.2%  
 +18.4%  
 +27.8%  
 +23.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019

 

November 2019 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 11/14/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Up

The index dropped by 0.0% or -3.99 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 668 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 376 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 292 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 178/319 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two trendlines following price and lo and behold, a chart pattern appeared. Do you know its name?

Answer: it's a descending triangle.

You might think that the descending triangle breaks out downward most often, but the breakout direction is really about random. In fact, it's upward 53% of the time.

Knowing that and knowing that the above probabilities favor a higher close on Thursday, then an upward breakout is my bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,603.57    
 Monthly S1  8,042.83  439.27   
 Monthly Pivot  8,263.00  220.16   
 Weekly S2  8,344.37  81.37   
 Weekly S1  8,413.23  68.87   
 Daily S2  8,431.22  17.99   
 Weekly Pivot  8,448.20  16.98   
 Low  8,451.34  3.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  8,455.02  3.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  8,456.66  1.64   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,468.74  12.08   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,474.12  5.38   
 Daily Pivot  8,476.78  2.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,479.50  2.72   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  8,482.10  2.60   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  8,496.90  14.80   
 Daily R1  8,502.22  5.32   
 Weekly R1  8,517.06  14.84   
 Daily R2  8,522.34  5.28   
 Weekly R2  8,552.03  29.69   
 Monthly R1  8,702.26  150.24   
 Monthly R2  8,922.43  220.16   

Wednesday 11/13/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This sounds like a repeat of last week when I discussed bearish divergence. It's baaack!

I show a nearly horizontal line on the indicator even as the index keeps rising. That's bearish divergence and it can last a long time, as the chart shows. But it also suggests weakness.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 27% on 11/08/2019.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 484 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 15% on 11/08/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Only the red line shows improvement this week when compared to the same time last week.

The indicator is climbing but slowly. The rate of climb has diminished over what we saw in prior weeks, too. To me, that says the bullish buying pressure is weakening.

Although the indicator shows an upward trend, I think underneath that strength is weakening. I don't know if the index is going to turn down soon, but my guess is, yes, it is.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/12/19. Slider Quiz: Rounding Tops!

The index climbed by 0.0% or 10.25 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1308 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 695 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 613 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 195/330 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the rounding top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,567.12    
 Monthly S1  26,629.30  1,062.19   
 Monthly Pivot  27,201.99  572.68   
 Weekly S2  27,250.13  48.14   
 Daily S2  27,444.46  194.33   
 Weekly S1  27,470.81  26.35   
 Low  27,517.67  46.86   
 Daily S1  27,567.98  50.31   
 Open  27,580.66  12.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,592.82  12.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,616.03  23.21   
 Weekly Pivot  27,622.74  6.71   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,639.24  16.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  27,641.18  1.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,691.49  50.31   
 High  27,714.39  22.90   
 Daily R1  27,764.70  50.31   
 Daily R2  27,837.90  73.21   
 Weekly R1  27,843.42  5.52   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  27,995.35  151.93   
 Monthly R1  28,264.17  268.82   
 Monthly R2  28,836.86  572.68   

Monday 11/11/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The red lines outline a pattern. Can you name it?

It's a broadening pattern, sure. It's called a broadening formation, right-angled and descending. That mouthful means it's flat on the top and broadens out lower. The two trendlines diverge.

At turn A is a partial decline which didn't work. It's supposed to predict an upward breakout. Not this time, though. The breakout was downward, at B.

All of this surprises me. Why? Because the FED cut interest rates again and that's good news for the capital hungry utilities. And yet price has dropped.

Anyway, it appears the index will continue down, much to my chagrin.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 114.75 points.
Tuesday: Up 30.52 points.
Wednesday: Down 0.07 points.
Thursday: Up 182.24 points.
Friday: Up 6.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 333.88 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 88.91 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 26.17 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 27,774.67 on 11/07/2019.
     22.3% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 8,483.16 on 11/07/2019.
     31.3% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 3,097.77 on 11/07/2019.
     26.6% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/08/2019, the CPI had:

5 bearish patterns,
28 bullish patterns,
355 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 84.8%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,536  27,608  27,652  27,724  27,768 
Weekly  27,247  27,464  27,619  27,837  27,992 
Monthly  25,564  26,622  27,199  28,257  28,833 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,067  3,080  3,087  3,100  3,106 
Weekly  3,054  3,073  3,086  3,105  3,117 
Monthly  2,823  2,958  3,028  3,163  3,233 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,383  8,429  8,452  8,499  8,522 
Weekly  8,342  8,409  8,446  8,513  8,550 
Monthly  7,601  8,038  8,261  8,698  8,920 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 25.7%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 33.4%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 5 weeks up 11.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 41.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 6 weeks up 7.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 31.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
9Head-and-shoulders bottom
8Dead-cat bounce
7Scallop, descending
7Scallop, ascending
6Diamond top
5V bottoms
5Triple bottom
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Scallop, ascending and inverted

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Homebuilding
2. Chemical (Basic)2. Chemical (Basic)
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Homebuilding4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Cement and Aggregates

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/8/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASHRising wedge      10/01/201911/07/2019Chemical (Basic)
BKHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/24/201911/04/2019Electric Utility (West)
BBWTriangle, symmetrical      10/11/201911/05/2019Retail (Special Lines)
CLNEScallop, ascending      10/17/201911/06/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)
GLWDiamond top      10/21/201911/07/2019Telecom. Equipment
COTYFlag      10/23/201911/05/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
^DJUBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/24/201911/05/2019None
FETriple top      09/26/201911/04/2019Electric Utility (East)
NSPDead-cat bounce      11/04/201911/04/2019Human Resources
IPIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/24/201911/04/2019Chemical (Diversified)
IVCFlag, high and tight      10/22/201911/07/2019Medical Supplies
JNJDiamond top      10/08/201911/06/2019Medical Supplies
MUDiamond top      10/28/201911/07/2019Semiconductor
MLHRRising wedge      10/01/201911/07/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
MYGNDead-cat bounce      11/05/201911/05/2019Biotechnology
NEEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/22/201911/01/2019Electric Utility (East)
PEGTriple top      10/11/201911/01/2019Electric Utility (East)
RGSPipe top      10/21/201910/28/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/31/2019 and 11/07/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 348 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $77.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $81.15 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.79%
Volume: 433,600 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/01/2019 to 11/07/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $75.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.16 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.62%
Volume: 505,100 shares. 3 month avg: 512,838 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2019 to 11/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $3.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.89 or 15.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.67%
Volume: 672,400 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 11/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $2.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.18 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 36.05%
Volume: 718,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 10/17/2019 to 11/06/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $30.19
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.53 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.07%
Volume: 3,807,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 11/07/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $13.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.01 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 98.17%
Volume: 7,574,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 11/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
11/7/19 close: $838.34
1 Month avg volatility: $8.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $815.74 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.59%
Volume: 61,037,800 shares. 3 month avg: 45,626,151 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 09/24/2019 to 11/05/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 149 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $46.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.24 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.42%
Volume: 9,812,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 09/26/2019 to 11/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $69.05
1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.21 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.04%
Volume: 1,075,000 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/04/2019 to 11/04/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $2.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.03 or 16.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.00%
Volume: 1,013,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/24/2019 to 11/04/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $11.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.97 or 20.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 161.86%
Volume: 3,530,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/22/2019 to 11/07/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $131.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $136.79 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.84%
Volume: 5,873,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,464,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/08/2019 to 11/06/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $48.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.36 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 52.54%
Volume: 19,081,800 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/28/2019 to 11/07/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $47.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.58 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 57.29%
Volume: 319,400 shares. 3 month avg: 361,806 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/01/2019 to 11/07/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 493 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $23.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.86 or 14.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.06%
Volume: 2,198,100 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 11/05/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 82 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $223.09
1 Month avg volatility: $3.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $233.71 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.35%
Volume: 3,118,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,582,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/22/2019 to 11/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $61.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.32 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.71%
Volume: 1,862,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,334,326 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 10/11/2019 to 11/01/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Regis Corp (RGS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 384 out of 581
11/7/19 close: $18.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.10 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.44%
Volume: 395,200 shares. 3 month avg: 193,511 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 10/28/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 11/7/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -24.05 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 514 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 278 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 236 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 177/318 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I looked at this chart of the index and decided to zoom in on the last 2 days of price movement.

I noticed the large swing up at A and down at B. It reminded me of the measure rule for trendlines. It says that the height above the trendline will match the move below the trendline.

Although a trendline isn't involved in this chart, the move up to A mirrors the one down to B. In this example, the down move extends a bit lower than does the move up, but it's close.

Maybe you can use this rule to your advantage as you trade to estimate a price target. Just be careful because it doesn't always work.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,479.04    
 Monthly S1  7,944.84  465.79   
 Monthly Pivot  8,165.79  220.96   
 Weekly S2  8,201.31  35.52   
 Weekly S1  8,305.97  104.66   
 Weekly Pivot  8,346.36  40.39   
 Daily S2  8,358.27  11.91   
 Low  8,379.33  21.06   
 Daily S1  8,384.45  5.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,397.38  12.93   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,402.95  5.57   
 Daily Pivot  8,405.51  2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,408.52  3.01   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  8,410.63  2.11   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  8,426.57  15.94   
 High  8,426.57  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  8,431.69  5.12   
 Weekly R1  8,451.02  19.33   
 Daily R2  8,452.75  1.73   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,491.41  38.66   
 Monthly R1  8,631.59  140.18   
 Monthly R2  8,852.54  220.96   

Wednesday 11/6/19. Indicators: Bearish!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice how the thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart is trending downward but the index is rising. That's bad news.

It's bearish divergence. However, the indicator is tricky because it can change for up to a week. And that means the hump on the indicator line on the right might be higher than that shown. In other words, there might not be bearish divergence if the index were to zip higher by a several hundred points.

As it stands now, though, it's bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 29% on 11/04/2019.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 484 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 16% on 11/04/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both indicator lines show improvement over a week ago, not by a lot (one percentage point) but it's still an improvement.

The prior chart is bearish but subject to change and this one is bullish. Which one wins?

Answer: the prior chart. So I'm looking for the index to drop. A look at the charts of the stocks I own, some had made huge gains because of earnings, but the others are looking tired, as if they are about to turn down. That evidence tells me the market is weak and headed lower.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/5/19. Slider Quiz! Rounding Bottoms

The index climbed by 0.4% or 114.75 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1098 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 579 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 519 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 194/329 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the rounding bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,247.03    
 Monthly S1  26,354.57  1,107.54   
 Weekly S2  26,813.47  458.90   
 Monthly Pivot  26,851.00  37.53   
 Weekly S1  27,137.79  286.79   
 Weekly Pivot  27,242.61  104.82   
 Daily S2  27,345.06  102.45   
 Low  27,402.06  57.00   
 Open  27,402.06  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  27,403.59  1.53   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,446.19  42.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,459.82  13.63   
 Daily Pivot  27,460.58  0.76   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,462.11  1.53   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,473.45  11.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  27,517.58  44.13   
 Daily R1  27,519.11  1.53   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  27,566.93  47.82   
 Daily R2  27,576.10  9.17   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  27,671.75  95.65   
 Monthly R1  27,958.54  286.79   
 Monthly R2  28,454.97  496.43   

Monday 11/4/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the SPX on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This chart is a yawn. Why? Because there's not much to write about.

The index moved to a new high (A). Not just a yearly high, but an all-time high.

And that's it. What more is there to say?

I guess I can add that I believe the index will continue rising.

 

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 132.66 points.
Tuesday: Down 19.3 points.
Wednesday: Up 115.27 points.
Thursday: Down 140.46 points.
Friday: Up 301.13 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 389.3 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 143.28 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 44.36 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     20.8% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 8,386.75 on 11/01/2019.
     29.9% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 3,066.95 on 11/01/2019.
     25.5% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 11/01/2019, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
25 bullish patterns,
234 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 96.2%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,075  27,211  27,279  27,416  27,484 
Weekly  26,775  27,061  27,204  27,490  27,634 
Monthly  25,209  26,278  26,813  27,882  28,417 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,045  3,056  3,062  3,072  3,078 
Weekly  3,009  3,038  3,052  3,082  3,096 
Monthly  2,786  2,926  2,997  3,137  3,208 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,306  8,346  8,367  8,407  8,427 
Weekly  8,193  8,290  8,338  8,435  8,483 
Monthly  7,471  7,929  8,158  8,615  8,844 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 33.4%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 18.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 41.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 5 weeks up 13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 31.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
37Pipe bottom
16Triangle, symmetrical
12Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Dead-cat bounce
7Scallop, descending
6Scallop, ascending
5V bottoms
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Scallop, ascending and inverted
3Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Chemical (Basic)2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Chemical (Basic)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/1/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 586 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNRectangle bottom      10/08/201910/31/2019IT Services
ASHRoof, inverted      09/13/201910/31/2019Chemical (Basic)
AVPTriangle, descending      09/03/201910/31/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
BLLRectangle bottom      09/10/201910/30/2019Packaging and Container
BECNTriangle, symmetrical      07/25/201910/29/2019Retail Building Supply
BRKSScallop, ascending      09/19/201910/28/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
FOETriangle, symmetrical      09/03/201910/31/2019Chemical (Specialty)
GSRectangle top      06/28/201910/31/2019Securities Brokerage
GFFRoof, inverted      09/17/201910/31/2019Building Materials
INCYHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/12/201910/25/2019Drug
LXUDead-cat bounce      10/29/201910/29/2019Building Materials
MLMBroadening top      10/10/201910/30/2019Cement and Aggregates
PCGDead-cat bounce      10/24/201910/25/2019Electric Utility (West)
POLDiamond top      10/11/201910/30/2019Chemical (Specialty)
RTNScallop, ascending      09/16/201910/28/2019Aerospace/Defense
ROGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/22/201910/29/2019Electronics
TPRRectangle top      09/11/201910/31/2019Apparel
TFXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/10/201910/25/2019Diversified Co.
SLCADead-cat bounce      10/29/201910/29/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
UPSDiamond bottom      10/02/201910/31/2019Air Transport

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 10/24/2019 and 10/31/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 284 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $185.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $193.91 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.49%
Volume: 1,574,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 10/08/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $77.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.66 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.03%
Volume: 361,100 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 09/13/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Avon Products (AVP)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $4.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.65 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 182.24%
Volume: 5,688,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,898,403 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/03/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 68 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $69.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.46 or 12.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 52.17%
Volume: 5,009,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 09/10/2019 to 10/30/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $31.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.01 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.14%
Volume: 323,700 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/25/2019 to 10/29/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/05/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Brooks Automation (BRKS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $42.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.71 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 62.22%
Volume: 467,500 shares. 3 month avg: 945,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 09/19/2019 to 10/28/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $11.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.30 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.02%
Volume: 260,200 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/03/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Goldman Sachs Group, The (GS)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $213.38
1 Month avg volatility: $3.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.68 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.73%
Volume: 1,876,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,673,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/28/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $21.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.39 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 103.92%
Volume: 92,900 shares. 3 month avg: 83,558 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 09/17/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $83.92
1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.65 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.97%
Volume: 999,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 09/12/2019 to 10/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $4.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.99 or 18.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.37%
Volume: 104,600 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 10/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $261.91
1 Month avg volatility: $5.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $281.11 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 52.39%
Volume: 746,500 shares. 3 month avg: 575,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 10/10/2019 to 10/30/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $6.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.66 or 24.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -74.02%
Volume: 18,706,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 10/25/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $32.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.35 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.06%
Volume: 482,900 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/11/2019 to 10/30/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $212.21
1 Month avg volatility: $4.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $203.43 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.38%
Volume: 1,269,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 10/28/2019
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $135.48
1 Month avg volatility: $4.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $151.47 or 11.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.77%
Volume: 429,700 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 10/22/2019 to 10/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $25.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.85 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.38%
Volume: 5,120,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 10/31/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/14/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $347.41
1 Month avg volatility: $7.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $318.55 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.40%
Volume: 524,200 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 10/10/2019 to 10/25/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $4.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.99 or 34.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.19%
Volume: 6,060,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 10/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 160 out of 581
10/31/19 close: $115.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $110.78 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.09%
Volume: 2,904,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,659,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 10/02/2019 to 10/31/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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